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Model output discussion - deep cold inbound?

Paul

By Paul
in Forecast Model Discussion

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Paul
Message added by Paul,

It's a busy time right now, so please ensure you only post about the model output in this thread. 

For local snow discussion and will it snow posts, please use the regional threads. 
And for more general chat please use the chat, moans and ramps thread.

There's now also a cold spell chat and discusison thread.

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Snowman. Accomplished

Snowman.

Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
Posted

The higher MLSP and less intense low delays the coldest uppers a little further south, but the position of the low is better and the first taste of cold air arrives sooner.

By Sunday evening -8 stretch across most of the country and still heading south.

image.thumb.png.a88992ef9c98505f5186b84dea1f72d0.pngimage.thumb.png.751a2513cb4769caf99a5bebf84d1126.png 

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Daniel* Maestro

Daniel*

Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
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Posted

Morning fellow nutters GFS 00z looking good low made less of a feature and further east and south a good thing this means a better airflow for the SE.

0C3AE2B3-B198-415D-9807-8E6086D45209.thumb.png.f5de979e4241cbf84e90390a10798af0.pngE3248A89-E977-4AF6-81BB-9E7DBD0A10DC.thumb.png.310e2f0efa74834cdef5941b8c4dd7ab.png

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Snowman. Accomplished

Snowman.

Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Popular Post
Posted

UKMO is best run this winter.

Not even joking.

 

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Snowman. Accomplished

Snowman.

Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
Posted

Got to be some -14 in that cold pool to the east across the north sea surely.

image.thumb.png.3a739a8038eca1692b310f562d224ca1.png

Easterly from Russian to the ESB and Canada.

Wow 

image.thumb.png.0c847bbb898150b69a1a26f75ae7d8db.png

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Snowman. Accomplished

Snowman.

Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
Posted
1 minute ago, Battleground Snow said:

I can't wait to see the temps at 144, must be close to -12 in the east

It has to be. 

Upgrades are flowing this morning already!

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Continental Climate Aficionado

Continental Climate

Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: heavy convective snow showers, blizzards, 30C sunshine
  • Location: Darlington
Posted

What a chart by Monday afternoon. A northern hemisphere atmospheric reversal. Not sure of the longevity of it all though looks to be getting a bit west based NAO and weakening but it will be fun whilst it lasts. Hopefully the entire country gets a dump of the good stuff. 

gfsnh-0-132.png

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Snowman. Accomplished

Snowman.

Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
Posted

GFS 144.

image.thumb.png.f7a315b83c244f781971ca7038c3b023.pngimage.thumb.png.b2a6e0a6492f0ad1ece0b8537d3f3add.png 

We're locked in cold now.

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Cheshire Freeze Maestro

Cheshire Freeze

Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
Posted

Not enthused by the GFS D6, no sooner do we get the cold in, heights weaken and push further W from Greenland. Atlantic could come back in fairly promptly.

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Battleground Snow Maestro

Battleground Snow

Posted
  • Location: Coventry
  • Location: Coventry
Posted
2 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Not enthused by the GFS D6, no sooner do we get the cold in, heights weaken and push further W from Greenland. Atlantic could come back in fairly promptly.

Yes not ideal but looks just enough of ridge over scandi and Scotland to send it under at 168

gfsnh-0-168 (13).png

gfsnh-1-168 (3).png

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Daniel* Maestro

Daniel*

Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
Posted

Excellent start to morning it couldn’t have looked better as far as I’m concerned GFS and UKMO so alike at day 6 - crazy! 

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Cheshire Freeze Maestro

Cheshire Freeze

Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
Posted (edited)
1 minute ago, Battleground Snow said:

Yes not ideal but looks just enough of ridge over scandi and Scotland to send it under at 168

gfsnh-0-168 (13).png

gfsnh-1-168 (3).png

Yeah we get away with it by a literal gnat's b-ollock on this run

Edited by CreweCold
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Snowman. Accomplished

Snowman.

Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
Posted
Just now, CreweCold said:

Not enthused by the GFS D6, no sooner do we get the cold in, heights weaken and push further W from Greenland. Atlantic could come back in fairly promptly.

Seems to be going for a Scandi wedge? Very few ensembles did something akin to it but the UKMO is also going for a wedge.

GFS doesnt disrupt east enough under the wedge but hopefully that changes.

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Snowman. Accomplished

Snowman.

Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
Posted

UKMO uppers

image.thumb.png.6d793dd753473bd39dfe1917ed4c159b.pngimage.thumb.png.c03a521e875c6eb4f0db54eaa8e4f849.png

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Daniel* Maestro

Daniel*

Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Popular Post
Posted
7 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Not enthused by the GFS D6, no sooner do we get the cold in, heights weaken and push further W from Greenland. Atlantic could come back in fairly promptly.

Nothing would please you it seems! Who cares about those heights new ones have emerged to north and Scandi cold high Nick S spoke about is doing wonders sustaining cold spell.

56F4964F-CABE-4B92-8CE2-9D963E250C51.thumb.png.aee74fe50cb7f19d57e1b5825a9b67a0.pngC546F1C0-2B79-49E0-8F00-26C32D149E70.thumb.png.4b35221542f2a8085cc5028214d81ac9.png

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Snowman. Accomplished

Snowman.

Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
Posted

GEM also fantastic.

image.thumb.png.17310bbe5351fe0480fa47887ce5d344.pngimage.thumb.png.8838ff2b2e5514c53e7af0dac80b9a95.png 

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Snowman. Accomplished

Snowman.

Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
Posted

The new 0z trend is retain some heights north. 

GEM is also keeping an almost wedge like high off the east coast of Iceland.

GEM is boom 

image.thumb.png.a0583b0315e7dc7b3042cb836a97c550.pngimage.thumb.png.4a1e55ec5ac2cf096afd998e12cdb29d.png 

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Continental Climate Aficionado

Continental Climate

Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: heavy convective snow showers, blizzards, 30C sunshine
  • Location: Darlington
Posted (edited)
4 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

198 v 204 from the 18z run. cold spell extended..

Look for this to happen on the ECM at day 9 and 10 later too.

 

gfsnh-1-198 (4).png

gfsnh-1-204 (2).png

I wish there was some way to get those purples and pinks over us but a 1060mb scandi high doesn't seem to be in the picture right now. We can wish eh? 

Lol battleground you read my mind 

Edited by Continental Climate
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Summerstorm Aficionado

Summerstorm

Posted
  • Location: Wrexham,NE Wales - 89m
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and Sunny Summers/Cold Wintry Winters
  • Location: Wrexham,NE Wales - 89m
Posted

GFS trying to go for a Scandi High but a bit too far south and not a good orientation bringing in milder air from the Eastern Mediterranean. 

gfs-0-222.thumb.png.5b184190e5bdc7764d1ac6fd7ccde7ca.png

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Daniel Enthusiast

Daniel

Posted
  • Location: Totton Hampshire
  • Location: Totton Hampshire
Posted
1 minute ago, Summerstorm said:

GFS trying to go for a Scandi High but a bit too far south and not a good orientation bringing in milder air from the Eastern Mediterranean. 

gfs-0-222.thumb.png.5b184190e5bdc7764d1ac6fd7ccde7ca.png

Hardly mild. South might be about to see its coldest uppers the whole run 

gfs-1-234 (2).png

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Snowman. Accomplished

Snowman.

Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
Posted

lol

image.thumb.png.1d88d1147167cf2e15b4970dbe023377.png

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Summerstorm Aficionado

Summerstorm

Posted
  • Location: Wrexham,NE Wales - 89m
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and Sunny Summers/Cold Wintry Winters
  • Location: Wrexham,NE Wales - 89m
Posted (edited)
4 minutes ago, Daniel said:

Hardly mild. South might be about to see its coldest uppers the whole run 

gfs-1-234 (2).png

Ah didn't look at that at first look it looked poor but we still have cold entrenched over us. 

If we can get the high to push further north then maybe we can start to drag that cold pool in.

Although all academic at that range considering how fluid the situation is at the moment. Something to keep an eye for sure to see if It consistently pops up elsewhere. 

Edited by Summerstorm
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