Model output discussion - deep cold inbound?

[Battleground Snow]

Mean at 120, ensembles coming in line on mass!

 

[kold weather]

8 minutes ago, Singularity said:

By dropping the UK low south much quicker during the weekend, this run asked a massive question of the other models that to be honest I didn’t expect to see come up again.

Makes you wonder if we might see that coupled with the Euro low further southeast. If that’s even possible when the two features are closer together. It might be. Hmm!

Its all down to that Iberian low again.

18z GFS still makes it dominant, which helps to pull the LP south quicker, whereas the ECM and others are more of a drift ESE towards the middle point between any Iberian low and Atlantic low.

The 18z GFS solution is massively risky, as it will only take a slightly beefier Iberian low to end up back in the same position as the 12z GFS.

ECM/UKMO is more safe evolution.

 

 

[Griff]

2 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

Mean at 120, ensembles coming in line on mass!

 

Oooh that's got to be better right? 

[weathermadbarnsleylad]

It's looking like 3 or 4 day affair now then here come the lows. According to to gfs 18z.cant see been anything special yet. 

[Winter Hill]

3 minutes ago, Matt Jones said:

Good to see a much better run by the gfs18z. Breakdown is poor but more importantly it brings in a decent easterly spell for most and colder uppers for a time.

Breakdown for where ?

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

2 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

Mean at 120, ensembles coming in line on mass!

 

Look how impressive that Easterly is!! Off the chain for a mean output! Traced back as far as Kamchatsky 

[sheikhy]

3 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

Mean at 120, ensembles coming in line on mass!

 

Just gorgeous!!scary thing is some runs bring the cold earlier according to the graph above!!

[kold weather]

18z GFS ensembles are FAR better for all of the country.

Very much a thumbs up here.

Interestingly more are now going with solution of keeping the Iberian low much weaker as well.

[Snipper]

16 minutes ago, MR_E said:

Do we think the potential snow from the east would make it all the way to the left?

Please would you be kind enough to indicate where you are. Go to top of page. Click on your name, then on your profile then edit profile. Don’t have to put your exact location unless you want to. 

[Griff]

1 minute ago, weathermadbarnsleylad said:

It's looking like 3 or 4 day affair now then here come the lows. According to to gfs 18z.cant see been anything special yet. 

Still to be resolved, GFS just starting to get back on what would be the preferred track, should know more in next 48 hours... 

[Mike Poole]

8 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

Mean at 120, ensembles coming in line on mass!

 

Very good mean that.  It was by far the most likely option that the GFS would capitulate to the UKMO and ECM (and some of the others) but you don’t know for sure until you see it.  I think though, that as far as the best guess across models,  it has put a kink in the easterly flow that will affect the south, not from cold air, that will go round, but re the strong easterly, until the kink is flattened.  But good runs tonight, actually good runs all day bar the earlier GFS and occasional ICON!  

Tomorrow we will find out a better take on the  cold evolution, and start the snow where and when question....

Edited February 2, 2021 by Mike Poole

[NewEra21]

This is for Suffolk, now this looks like a definite improvement

[Allseasons-Si]

Hi guys,just joined the party and i hope all is well

Much improved short ens than last night...

Sheffield and London.

 

[Roger J Smith]

So if I'm to believe the 18z GFS, a weak Atlantic low that has been dying for three days over the Irish Sea will hold back the biggest easterly in ages then come back for more? I'll believe that when I see it (and I know I will, it's 2021).

 

[Matt H]

The ensemble mean at t138 is an absolute beauty. The best model output of the evening for the entire country IMO!

 

[kold weather]

The good news is most of the ensembles now do get the cold in.

Still some uncertainties regarding the position of the low, and some runs still don't look that snowy for the south.

BUT

IF we get the cold in, any attempt from the south-west is going to give those areas a very strong chance at snow down the line.

So great runs, and finally seems like the ensembles and the GFS is more or less on board again.

 

[Battleground Snow]

1 minute ago, Mike Poole said:

Very good mean that.  It was by far the most likely option that the GFS would capitulate to the UKMO and ECM (and some of the others) but you don’t know for sure until you see it.  I think though, that as far as the best guess across models,  it has put a kink in the easterly flow that will affect the south, not from cold air, that will go round, but re the strong easterly, until the kink is flattened.  But good runs tonight, actually good runs all day bar the earlier GFS and occasional ICON!  

Tomorrow we will find out the exact cold evolution, and start the snow where and when question....

OP is way above the mean in the midterm too

[Djdazzle]

5 minutes ago, weathermadbarnsleylad said:

It's looking like 3 or 4 day affair now then here come the lows. According to to gfs 18z.cant see been anything special yet. 

I doubt it. Get the cold in and any breakdown will usually struggle. Anyway, the breakdown is in FI.

[sheikhy]

My god the control and mean!!guys the 00zs could be out of this universe come morning!!

[BLIZZARDMAN]

Judging by those ensembles, when this easterly does arrive the air COULD be much colder than the OP's are showing atm.

[Tim Bland]

Op still on the warm side ...

[Gowon]

3 minutes ago, weathermadbarnsleylad said:

It's looking like 3 or 4 day affair now then here come the lows. According to to gfs 18z.cant see been anything special yet. 

I found that GFS run underwhelming tbh.. I blame the ECM run a couple days ago.

[sheikhy]

Guys just sit back for a second and take a look at the charts from a northern hemispheric view!!it looks like something from the 1960s or 70s

[Frostbite1980]

Is the 18Z GFS P running or is it still broken lol

Edited February 2, 2021 by Frostbite1980

[Uncertainty]

 

Time to get the rulers out.

Flat as a pancake.

Both phrases apt for this run, and indeed most winters. Except, of course, the heights are the opposite way round!

@DiagonalRedLinedo you remember that chart you made JFF back in early December, y’know, the opposite of this one? 

Crazy to think we’re 5, yes 5 days away from actually realising this!

Then mean is certainly more conducive for snow in the SE, not as extreme for Northern areas as the 12z but would certainly make for more of a nationwide event.

 
 

Huge support from ALL major models now for this event. Expect it to filter into the ‘real world’ consciousness very soon.

Sat - Weds look the key days for the snowy easterly, then signs on EC, GFS and GEM of a potentially very snowy breakdown from the SW come Thursday. Reminiscent of storm Emma and the 2018 event.

Signs also of a strong Atlantic back end of week 2, and taken at face value that may be the case for a time.  However, the EC46 suggests blocking, and with it winter, might not be done with us yet even after our upcoming dance with the Eastern beast...