Model output discussion - deep cold inbound?

[Jason M]

1 minute ago, sebastiaan1973 said:

Wind and dewpoint. Control and Oper are on their own path from sunday.

But they go together, so at such short range you would normally tend to back them.

[MJB]

2 minutes ago, Griff said:

no, despite how many times I keep hitting F5 - the nomad sever was down earlier, back up now but no charts yet.

Edit 

not sure why it was stuck on the 6z 

Edited February 2, 2021 by MJB

[snoangel]

As someone with no training in understanding the weather or models, can any experienced posters help me out here...

... I *think* I’ve noticed in the past that models often correct the position of low pressure south very late in the day (T24/48 hrs) when low bumps into cold air.

My question is, is this real? As I live in the south east I’m wondering if that is simply sub conscious hopecasting rather than model flaws and physics!

[ANYWEATHER]

12 minutes ago, Anthony Burden said:

Evening all little late giving my thoughts on the charts this evening,I will keep it short and to the point,

northern blocking ready to push south from 144 hrs bringing mostly dry very cold air in from the north east.

severe frosts on the agenda.

 

Indeed ,if it was that clear ! Computer models really struggle with this scenario.......But the Cold is coming from the East ,just relax and enjoy the goods and enjoy the Delivery 

 

[WINTRY WALES]

2 minutes ago, snoangel said:

As someone with no training in understanding the weather or models, can any experienced posters help me out here...

... I *think* I’ve noticed in the past that models often correct the position of low pressure south very late in the day (T24/48 hrs) when low bumps into cold air.

My question is, is this real? As I live in the south east I’m wondering if that is simply sub conscious hopecasting rather than model flaws and physics!

Usually....but I’ve noticed that over the last 2 weeks the low pressure has tracked further north than modelled which maybe of a concern

[Timmytour]

30 hours ago we were drooling over this 12z run from GFS  (for Sunday evening) and what it subsequently delivered

Thereafter things were not so good....starting with a pub run which rudely interrupted the delight being shown over a generally excellent 12z suite.....

Thereafter a further three runs underwhelmed.....

 

The pub run turned it round last night......it needs to turn it round again, but this time in favour of something that has us smiling at its outcome!

[NewEra21]

18 minutes ago, Mark wheeler said:

Aprege out to 114hrs 

Hopefully this is a sign of things to come in the days ahead. Because the further south this low is, the better it is for everyone and the overall pattern. 

[pyrotech]

1 minute ago, sebastiaan1973 said:

Wind and dewpoint. Control and Oper are on their own path from sunday.

There is something that is still making that an option. So although the option we want (most of us) is more likely, we can not completely ignore the op and control. I think the Met Office medium range forecast is something to cling on to. Many models and whatever they determine to look most likely from their model is indicating deep entrenched cold over the UK.  Tuesday / Wednesday next week may be quite interesting as the Atlantic has a failed attempt to push North East into the UK.  It may be Friday before we see complete model agreement beyond the weekend and even then snow forecasting limited to 48 / 72 hours.  I do see East coast UK doing very well from convective showers, but i am never overly confident when operational and control both see another option.  

[Mike Poole]

4 minutes ago, snoangel said:

As someone with no training in understanding the weather or models, can any experienced posters help me out here...

... I *think* I’ve noticed in the past that models often correct the position of low pressure south very late in the day (T24/48 hrs) when low bumps into cold air.

My question is, is this real? As I live in the south east I’m wondering if that is simply sub conscious hopecasting rather than model flaws and physics!

Interesting question and very pertinent to the current situation. The models do the best they can with the physics, but there biases because all models are approximations.  This does seem to manifest in overplaying the northern extent when lows and weather fronts come up against cold air in our location, so they do tend to correct south in the last couple of days.  We are not there yet.  There is genuine uncertainty about the behaviour of the 3 lows that are causing the headaches.  Once we have a pattern the models are agreed on, it may correct south 50-100 miles at most in the last couple of days, not more, because we are close to those last couple of days now anyway.  I can’t recall many scenarios where the differences at T72 are causing such widely different outcomes....on to the pub run

[Mike Poole]

ICON T84 compared to 12z T90, the UK low a bit deeper, the Iberia one a little less deep, I think this is positive change:

[sheikhy]

Icon lookimg good at 96 hours!!!

[kold weather]

3 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

ICON T84 compared to 12z T90, the UK low a bit deeper, the Iberia one a little less deep, I think this is positive change:

Probably some wintry showers over the Midlands during the morning on Saturday, high ground may get some snow from those, though its very maginal.

This feature also shows on the ECM/GEM but all three have different locations.

BTW- the low center at 96hrs is IDENTICAL to the ECM by Saturday evening. Like literally almost to the mile.

Edited February 2, 2021 by kold weather

[Battleground Snow]

1 minute ago, Mike Poole said:

ICON T84 compared to 12z T90, the UK low a bit deeper, the Iberia one a little less deep, I think this is positive change:

Yes Mike, better heights to our North too, easterly is in  by 114, this rollercoaster is far from over yet.

[sheikhy]

1 minute ago, kold weather said:

Probably some wintry showers over the Midlands during the morning on Saturday, high ground may get some snow from those, though its very maginal.

This feature also shows on the ECM/GEM but all three have different locations.

Ukv has -7 850s and ecm close to those values as well!!could be a starter to the main course

[Crackerjack]

48 minutes ago, steveinsussex said:

turn screen to landscape

Everyday is a school day. Thanks for that mate. Saves me pressing the name and going to a separate page each and every time I want to know their location

[sheikhy]

What a start to the 18zs!!!icon looks lovely!!!

[Mike Poole]

4 minutes ago, kold weather said:

Probably some wintry showers over the Midlands during the morning, high ground may get some snow from those, though its very maginal.

This feature also shows on the ECM/GEM but all three have different locations.

Hi KW, I was thinking more of the longer term evolution than snow at this point!!  You can see the difference at T114, T120 on 12z for comparison:

Our problem low is already on its way and trough disruption on the next one and it will go under.  Good run, wish we could see it further.

Edited February 2, 2021 by Mike Poole

[I remember Atlantic 252]

4 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

Yes Mike, better heights to our North too, easterly is in  by 114, this rollercoaster is far from over yet.

still too far north on that, well for here anyway, looks like convective snow approx Manchester northwards

Edited February 2, 2021 by I remember Atlantic 252

[northwestsnow]

So,all we need is 18z to look like Icon at day FOUR and we are laughing...

 

[kold weather]

Subtle differences from the ECM but its just enough that it probably allows the rest of the country to join in on a more true ENE airflow, rather than recycled air aroud the west side of the low as per 12z ECM.

Good run for keeping the cold longer as well.

BTW - the 12z ECM eventually ended up with a max of 101cms by day 10 for the NE England, with widespread 40-60cms away from coasts

Edited February 2, 2021 by kold weather

[frosty ground]

1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

So,all we need is 18z to look like Icon at day FOUR and we are laughing...

 

All we need

[turkishfella]

Finally: Beast from the East set to release extreme cold and snow over Europe next week

WWW.SEVERE-WEATHER.EU

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A cold outbreak is setting up for next week as a so-called Beast from the East will push extreme cold and also some snow towards the central-west Europe.

 

[Battleground Snow]

4 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

still too far north on that, well for here anyway, looks like convective snow approx Manchester northwards

Midlands would have been in it by 126, how frustrating we can't see past 120!

[Paul_1978]

51 minutes ago, steveinsussex said:

I can on mine using safari on IOS 14

Portrait and landscape view. Sorry to ask for this diversion. 

[ALL ABOARD]

Icon at 120 is stunning. 

Perfect positioning of the low across the East, Midlands and frontal systems making slow inroads from the Atlantic for us out west. 

Win win... 

Edited February 2, 2021 by ALL ABOARD