Model output discussion - deep cold inbound?

[Kentspur]

9 minutes ago, Snowman. said:

A yay for NE england.

And a boo from the SE.

 

Absolutely dreadful run for the South and SE of the country that have already put up with the most torturous winter in living memory. A bit like myself supporting Spurs- we're always nearly but never quite enough. There was so much promise at the start of the season but the runs of the last 2 days are mirroring Spurs current form.

I hope the low is modelled a couple hundred miles further south in future runs so we can finally see some of the white stuff but unlikely IMO

 

If I was living Midlands northwards I'd be delighted with this winter but also hoping other areas got in on the act too so we can all have a memorable winter, but knowing our luck the pattern will be more favourable in Spring as is often the case here.

Edited February 2, 2021 by Kentspur

[Mike Poole]

ECM T192 and we’re home and hosed.  That low took a bit of time to stop messing things up for the far SE, but it has done now, and maybe this might correct south nearer the time anyway.  

Excellent.

[Mucka]

For those in the SE remember the snow over the N will move away SE.

It won't be as prolonged and heavy in such a situation but would still likely give a covering IMO.

[MattStoke]

7 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Its snow mate!!im pretty sure!!

-7’C 850hpa temperatures or lower on the ECM in a flow from the continent. More than cold enough for snow. I often see snow in a north westerly flow with 850hpa temperatures of -2’C. I know I have a little bit altitude and I’m not in the far south but it’s not like I’m on top of a Scottish mountain. If the latter can bring me snow, the former sure can bring snow to those lower down and further south!

Edited February 2, 2021 by MattStoke

[kold weather]

2 minutes ago, Johnp said:

Why has everyone started taking the precipitation charts as gospel? 

The one thing I can tell you about past cold spells is that the snowfall is never picked up more than 2/3 days in advance. 

Easy:

Onshore flow around the LP with subsidence from the fronts both in the north and to our south.

the south will be effectively in the convective death zone so to speak on this run. Some weak troughs may still come through, but its not going to be giving much if the ECM came in as shown.

 

Edited February 2, 2021 by kold weather

[goosey007]

1 minute ago, snowice said:

I take that at 192 

Feels like this could easily be 7 to 10 day very cold/to cold spell...with all seeing snow at some point.....even if not initially.

[TSNWK]

you pays your money takes your choice on this run for the south east.. not as cold initially but it looks colder longer term..

for midlands and north it’s all gravy...start to finish I would say

 

 

[sheikhy]

I mean this ecm run from 96 hours all the way to 216 hours is just on a different level!!

[Cold Winter Night]

3 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

Stop looking at snapshots.  The ECM at t168 looks like an upgrade in longevity.  The implosion will be if the trough over SE into low countries intensifies and moves north.  The Atlantic blocking is much better

 

BFTP 

Correct. And if the cold has moved in already, with a snow cover, you will keep much lower temperatures at 2 metres, even if the T850 are a bit higher.

[Scott Ingham]

Well the 12z ECM is an epicly snowy run for anyone midlands northwards. Being imby it shows my back yard taking a battering and those even further north east with 4 days of on and off showers and longer periods of snow.

For the south not so good.

BUT as said this low is so far out its realistic to imagine the low could be as much as 200 miles further south come the weekend.

It really is a macro difference on a long wave pattern conducive to deep cold somewhere

[chionomaniac]

1 minute ago, That ECM said:

@chionomaniac you went 24 hour’s early.

Never . The floodgates had opened previous frame, but the cold hadn’t flooded in yet.  

[MATTWOLVES 3]

You guys sleigh me...get it

Lets all relax here and take it easy..my feet are firmly on the ground..

[JoeShmoe]

Just now, Daniel* said:

Out to Wednesday midnight it’s very dry PPN mostly north of Humber, Scotland and far north turned into Arctic wilderness.

That’s the 2nd of 3rd ECM that’s showed over 50cm of snow here ... red warnings here if that comes off 

[nick sussex]

Members of the committee have just passed out with stress !

Ambulances have been called ! A nightmare forecast . 

The lack of separation with the upstream low cause all manner of issues . The forecast for northern areas is easier but further south it’s hideous to get right.

 

[Mark wheeler]

6 minutes ago, Jason M said:

That would be fine for the SE. Uppers around -5c with an established cold airmass. 

Yes I don’t understand the doom and gloom for the south east it seems fine to me .

[BlackburnChris]

Just now, Mike Poole said:

ECM T192 and we’re home and hosed.  That low took a bit of time to stop messing things up for the far SE, but it has done now, and maybe this might correct south nearer the time anyway.  

Excellent.

I wonder what will Happen to the Low pressure to the SW at +216 .. Height's arn't as strong as on the 00z ... Could be a Snow Maker if it tries to disrupt though ....

[Djdazzle]

A100 mile shift south is nothing in the global scheme of things.

It’s 5-6 days away, and it’s not your normal Atlantic LP. So pretty much anything is possible.

[birdman]

18 minutes ago, Kentspur said:

Def no boom for the snowless  southern  half of the country, pattern 200miles too far north unfortunately its the same areas benefiting again by the looks of things story of the winter , well enjoy Northern folks

Wrong thread! However detail is not nailed on... far from so keep hold of your toys for the time being! 

[mulzy]

1 minute ago, Daniel* said:

Out to Wednesday midnight it’s very dry PPN mostly north of Humber, Scotland and far north turned into Arctic wilderness.

Pretty similar to now - except colder in the south.

These charts are just for fun anyway - great entertainment but they hardly come to fruition.

[Jason M]

Just now, Mark wheeler said:

Yes I don’t understand the doom and gloom for the south east it seems fine to me .

Problem on this run is that its cold enough but nothing much would fall! Not worth stressing over precipitation charts at that range though.

[ribster]

8 minutes ago, kold weather said:

Yeah its cold enough on the ECM.

Bigger problem is it will be much drier for the south on this run, probably south of the Wash-Liverpool there'd be very little snowfall if the 12z ECM is right. Probably will be some, but its going to be modest at best.

Miles away in weather terms as you well know, so likely to be quite different on the day. 

Edited February 2, 2021 by ribster
Typo

[Lloyd1]

27 minutes ago, Mark wheeler said:

We don’t know how the weekend will pan out and is why many are here to find out , enjoy the ride as we find out together. Any Ecm ok at 120 

Sorry for my pessimistic look on it, but having looked at these charts all winter they seem to show big signs of cold spells then let us down closer to the time so I’m not getting my hopes up this time. I’m also located in West Wales so I guess If there are any beasts from the East i tend to miss out on the snow anyway as it filters out west haha. 

[kold weather]

5 minutes ago, Mark wheeler said:

Yes I don’t understand the doom and gloom for the south east it seems fine to me .

Because we are going to be struggling to get much precipitation in here with the LP sat where it is, especially the SE in particular between 120-168hrs.

There is finally a weaker trough that comes through around 192hrs as the whole complex finally ejects SE.

Then a big breakdown LP moving in around 216hrs, which would give some good snow, but that really is light years away, and even that is marginal for the SE again...

 

Edited February 2, 2021 by kold weather

[AmershamMike]

Crikey, I’m a newbie and find the conflicting views on here amazing.

[Daniel*]

4 minutes ago, Johnp said:

It won't turn out like that!!!!

I know but I’m just describing it’s not a good run for areas further south and east in contrast to previous runs it’s far from GFS  though it is n extremely cold and snowy run for Scotland the -10C isotherm is there from Sunday to Thursday as far as eye can see.