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Model output discussion - deep cold inbound?

Paul

By Paul
in Forecast Model Discussion

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Paul
Message added by Paul,

It's a busy time right now, so please ensure you only post about the model output in this thread. 

For local snow discussion and will it snow posts, please use the regional threads. 
And for more general chat please use the chat, moans and ramps thread.

There's now also a cold spell chat and discusison thread.

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winterof79 Veteran

winterof79

Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
Posted
6 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

Ecm...12z full on.. massive upgrade.. and wins the 100 meter sprint ✊✊

image.thumb.png.c308155662fd831e9b19ed79e3acd03b.png

Good for NE but not massive ?

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kold weather Maestro

kold weather

Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
Posted (edited)
4 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

ECM T144, think this will now go on to be very good

8FB4008D-7CC8-4B3D-8BB0-7A696E520F27.thumb.gif.d9ac3081f49ec14df29f975ae507868e.gif

Yeah thats definately staying cold.

Huge snowfall for the north on this run.

Pretty much nothing for the south (cold enough, but no precipitation), but fairly cold at least.

The reason for this is because the flow around the LP just off the UK keeps the airflow technically from the N/NW across the southern half of England which may allow for some convection inland, but its not going to be giving widespread dumpings seen further north.

Shift that low even 100 miles SE and the whole country gets a ENE airflow instead.

Edited by kold weather
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Johnp Accomplished

Johnp

Posted
  • Location: North East Hampshire
  • Location: North East Hampshire
Posted
Just now, jayb1989 said:

Yep looks a wet one in the south east.. starting to see some consistency now withing the 12z runs to model the low further north. Some northern parts are going to get buried.

No it doesn't does it?  Do you have a link to the precip charts?

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Captain Shortwave Maestro

Captain Shortwave

Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Popular Post
Posted

ECM up to day 6

Front over the north slowly sinks south and potentially develops a significant wave as it moves towards the south east. Potentially a lot of snow down the eastern side of the UK.

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I remember Atlantic 252 Maestro

I remember Atlantic 252

Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
Posted
1 minute ago, sheikhy said:

Ecm is basically gfs but with colder 850s and a dolloping of snow!!

low is too far north for us!

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Severe Siberian icy blast Experienced

Severe Siberian icy blast

Posted
  • Location: Wellseborne, Warwickshire
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking low pressure in winter. Hot and thundery in the summer
  • Location: Wellseborne, Warwickshire
  • Popular Post
Posted

Don't be fooled that is one very very snowy picture, 

We all crave tbfte and - 13 850s but that is very very snowy. 

I think this next wk is gonna be talked about for years to come 

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tight isobar Maestro

tight isobar

Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
Posted

Over hype via the equatorial pump!??? =rises into the mid latitudes... i rekon!!!!.. the madden julien >and GWO say so.. if ya look deeper... 

9BBB5687-01E0-4E90-8B8F-AB1DA102F370.gif

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Matt Jones Contributor

Matt Jones

Posted
  • Location: Immingham, NE Lincolnshire pretty much sea level
  • Location: Immingham, NE Lincolnshire pretty much sea level
Posted

Big move to gfs on this latest ecm, margins very tight for anyone south of Scotland.

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chionomaniac Maestro

chionomaniac

Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
Posted

Ecm t+168 should open the floodgates, unless it wants to join the GFS club.

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Radiating Dendrite Experienced

Radiating Dendrite

Posted
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: January 1987 / July 2006
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL
Posted
1 minute ago, jayb1989 said:

Yep looks a wet one in the south east.. starting to see some consistency now withing the 12z runs to model the low further north. Some northern parts are going to get buried.

Again.

Hopefully it will come a little further south.

Certainly a winter of two halves - great up norf and naff down south. 

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Harsh Climate Accomplished

Harsh Climate

Posted
  • Location: Kippax (Leeds) 63m
  • Location: Kippax (Leeds) 63m
Posted (edited)
4 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

image.thumb.png.c308155662fd831e9b19ed79e3acd03b.png

Good for NE but not massive ?

 

Yeah ECM is good cos it sticks close to it's 00z run, albeit a tad watered down, but is certainly no upgrade. Most probably because there wasn't much room to upgrade any further. The fact we've avoided any noticeable backtrack is a minor victory in itself though! 

Edited by Harsh Climate
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Snowman. Accomplished

Snowman.

Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
Posted (edited)

A yay for NE england.

And a boo from the SE.

image.thumb.png.849bb71adc1c5f416f9fb0e288d19532.pngimage.thumb.png.ac06def866a9951d3662b49419ec8022.png 

Edited by Snowman.
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Blizzardof82 Community Regular

Blizzardof82

Posted
  • Location: Pucklechurch near Bristol 113m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Hot summers and cold winters with snow.
  • Location: Pucklechurch near Bristol 113m ASL
  • Popular Post
Posted
1 minute ago, Matt Jones said:

Big move to gfs on this latest ecm, margins very tight for anyone south of Scotland.

What are you looking at?????

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Howie Rising Star

Howie

Posted
  • Location: North London
  • Location: North London
Posted
Just now, sheikhy said:

No no no mate!!!its perfection!!!!!

You sure? It looks much further north.  You think it would be snow and not rain?

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Phil Blake Aficionado

Phil Blake

Posted
  • Location: Chester le street
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, heat, storms
  • Location: Chester le street
Posted
5 minutes ago, Kentspur said:

Def no boom for the snowless  southern  half of the country, pattern 200miles too far north unfortunately its the same areas benefiting again by the looks of things story of the winter , well enjoy Northern folks

My location only had rain today where the place I work 6 miles away had a decent covering. Not all the northern areas have done well this winter. Parts of teeside are yet to see any snow at all. 

ECM looks like below average temps through the weekend and snow could pop up just about anywhere. 

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Djdazzle Veteran

Djdazzle

Posted
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
Posted
4 minutes ago, Howie said:

Does anyone think the low will be further south than this closer to the time? I'm hoping so

Very likely - that’s what normally tends to happen.

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Blizzardof82 Community Regular

Blizzardof82

Posted
  • Location: Pucklechurch near Bristol 113m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Hot summers and cold winters with snow.
  • Location: Pucklechurch near Bristol 113m ASL
Posted
1 minute ago, Howie said:

You sure? It looks much further north.  You think it would be snow and not rain?

Really?????image.thumb.png.86b4ba87fec01ee744e9c3349964f00c.png

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kold weather Maestro

kold weather

Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
Posted (edited)

1572172274_ECMOPEU12_144_1(1).thumb.png.32b7ab27dc241697576da4ba99159b0f.png

The ECM 12z 144hrs.

At this time of year we are still a little early for inland convection to spark on its own.

So we need a flow from the sea to really develop deeper convection.

The above map shows the areas of snow and the flow around the low. Anyone south of that botton line will be having an onshore flow which limits moisture, which at this time of year *usually* leads to modest convection, especailly further inland you go.

The south therefore will be totally dependent on troughs and fronts developing on that frontal system. Very possible but not very snowy 144hrs chart for the south. I'd hazard maybe some light snow showers for the south upto 168hrs.

VERY snowy for the north however!

Edited by kold weather
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