Jump to content
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?
IGNORED

Model output discussion - deep cold inbound?


Paul
Message added by Paul,

It's a busy time right now, so please ensure you only post about the model output in this thread. 

For local snow discussion and will it snow posts, please use the regional threads
And for more general chat please use the chat, moans and ramps thread.

There's now also a cold spell chat and discusison thread.

Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: Bramley, Leeds: 100m (328ft)
  • Weather Preferences: Snow.
  • Location: Bramley, Leeds: 100m (328ft)

Pretty safe to say there will be snow, but as always the forecasting of it in this country, outside of a sure thing, is often very hit and miss. Predicting where and how much based on changing models 4 days out seems a lucky dip. 

 

(Today we had 5" snow when the MetO predicted sleet up until the previous evening. They then said we'd have heavy snow until 12pm but it had cleared by 9am.)

Edited by Barking_Mad
  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea

GEM Ensembles 

126

image.thumb.png.9f2e695da0886b87bd2641af4d0e63c9.pngimage.thumb.png.1d79122a6118997b1847181fa81480cb.png

Not bad!

  • Like 6
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
Just now, nick sussex said:

News just in !

The Crunchy Snow and Ice Day Committee will be meeting at 7pm . 

On the agenda .

Depth of cold and likely duration .

Frontal snow prospects .

Chances of a proper convective easterly .

Fine tuning the BCP ( Blizzard Contingency Plan ) .

The NSTC ( Nick Sussex Trauma Center) remains on standby , staff leave has been cancelled . Any decision to move from Code Red down to Amber or Green wont be taken until at least tomorrow.

Conclusions of the meeting to come later this evening .

 

Great news.. let’s hope you need to get the pizzas in after the ECM 

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
1 hour ago, Singularity said:

image.thumb.png.880a38ffd8ec6e128d639826e8a87701.pngimage.thumb.png.485839501434141a2b72c88b5d88cf50.pngimage.thumb.png.5ce50bf39f8cea51495c4529fdd73646.png

If you compare the 12z UKMO (left & right) with the 00z ECM (middle), even with the 12 hour time differences either side, you can see that UKMO moved the Euro low east a bit quicker, meaning less of an interaction with the UK low.

That's all I can find that explains UKMO not bringing in as much of the cold continental air by Monday.

Mad thing is, this is the opposite of where GFS goes awry; low not moved east fast enough.

I think a blend of the two would make for interesting viewing.

And a blend of the two may well be the final answer, based on experience. Which to me is something closer to last night's GFS 12Z or 18Z ?️?️?️?️?️?️?️?️?️?️?️?️?️?️

Edited by Man Without Beard
  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Kippax (Leeds) 63m
  • Location: Kippax (Leeds) 63m

All eyes on a massive ECM run coming up! I feel as if the ECM 00z was the best possibility that showed up, I can't see a huge climb down but something more watered down will probably be shown. If so I hope that doesn't precede a torrent of 'ECM is big downgrade' posts.. lol.

I see 3 possibilities on data shown at the moment for the end of this week into next week.

1.Light snow showers blowing in from the east for a few days before milder weather pushes in.

2.(Most Likely) Couple days of heavy snow showers packing into more eastern areas with a revert back to a more battle ground scenario as we lose easterly winds.  

3. (Best option) I've seen charts looking very similar to a 1987 style set-up with 2/3 days of heavy snow for pretty much the whole eastern side of England, with lesser amounts elsewhere. Boy would I love that to come to fruition! After now witnessing 3 big dumps of snow already this winter, I now think any things possible!  

Edited by Harsh Climate
  • Like 5
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Ashford Kent
  • Weather Preferences: 1. Clear skies 2. Cold 3. Snow 4. Hot
  • Location: Ashford Kent
4 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

News just in !

The Crunchy Snow and Ice Day Committee will be meeting at 7pm . 

On the agenda .

Depth of cold and likely duration .

Frontal snow prospects .

Chances of a proper convective easterly .

Fine tuning the BCP ( Blizzard Contingency Plan ) .

The NSTC ( Nick Sussex Trauma Center) remains on standby , staff leave has been cancelled . Any decision to move from Code Red down to Amber or Green wont be taken until at least tomorrow.

Conclusions of the meeting to come later this evening .

 

Do send out an urgent alert in the event of a code brown please. 

  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
28 minutes ago, DCee said:

Hi Tim,

I would very much enjoy a cold and snowy time, and of course I do hope I am wrong more than anyone. But, alas, I am not usually wrong im afraid (no matter how much I want to be).

When you have money in the game it helps removes the bias, believe me!

So much can go wrong and prevent the lows from moving south, the three sisters at 120h need to be just right...a phase here or missed phase there and its game over. The ECM tends to keep them together then slip under and around, quite a feat.

I think it’s fair to say that the Met Office & Meteogroup etc have considerable “money in the game” amd it’s clear where their thoughts lie. Perhaps you could give your professional opinion of why the GFS is right, despite being against its own ensembles and almost every other run? Which GFS run of the last 3 do you think has spotted the correct pattern? It’s like a blind squirrel scanning around to find it’s nuts.. every run is almost completely different . GEM is at least backed by its own ensembles ??‍♂️

64DFFF69-989A-4FC2-91B8-11FDC4306D10.jpeg

Edited by Tim Bland
  • Like 4
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
Just now, Ice Day said:

Helen Willets is unavailable for the meeting Nick, but has just provided this update

 

20210202_175755.jpg

What is telling on that graphic is that there is no sign of any Iberia low pumping up mild air towards us.. of course we don’t know the key but just look at it and compare with 144 on GFS

  • Like 6
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Grays, Thurrock
  • Location: Grays, Thurrock
11 minutes ago, Anthony Burden said:

Very wintery picture from met office 30day some possibly sever weather on it’s way to most

of U.K.big question mark regarding GFS Synoptics as Matt Hugo stated a few days ago.

ECM tonight will be very interesting,my take look to the east , snow severe frosts all on 

the agenda,get ready to batten down the hatches.

Do the met office see ECM before it rolls out to public? Or do we think their latest update is just from what mogreps show?

 

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: South Essex
  • Location: South Essex
2 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

Was just about to post this!

Very well supported out to 138 and a substantial improvement on its 00z set.

Not many GFS op options in there

 

gem-coventry-gb-525n-15w.jpeg

The main differences would show on the London set rather than Coventry (though can obviously appreciate why you use those given your location). 

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Bishops Cleeve, Cheltenham. 300 M ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Extremes, the very hot and the very cold.
  • Location: Bishops Cleeve, Cheltenham. 300 M ASL
8 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

News just in !

The Crunchy Snow and Ice Day Committee will be meeting at 7pm . 

On the agenda .

Depth of cold and likely duration .

Frontal snow prospects .

Chances of a proper convective easterly .

Fine tuning the BCP ( Blizzard Contingency Plan ) .

The NSTC ( Nick Sussex Trauma Center) remains on standby , staff leave has been cancelled . Any decision to move from Code Red down to Amber or Green wont be taken until at least tomorrow.

Conclusions of the meeting to come later this evening .

 

Nick - Who's on the panel ? Hope there's room for John Kettley, & Michael Fish. 

  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Hailsham, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy snow and ice days
  • Location: Hailsham, East Sussex
7 minutes ago, Ice Day said:

Helen Willets is unavailable for the meeting Nick, but has just provided this update

 

20210202_175755.jpg

Just need that cold over us to more closely match the colour of her dress.

  • Like 7
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Garforth, Leeds 86m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Heat, Snow, Thunder
  • Location: Garforth, Leeds 86m asl
3 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

ECM T72 compared to the others:

238ABF71-AB26-42A8-A0BD-F938CE026E84.thumb.gif.96f55c85172f7169c3d0d52e50b94c5d.gif

EA76BEF0-F65D-4BCF-A8C0-612C5020BF36.thumb.png.e89bca11c458e8091d3b33ad63fbfb1b.pngD5EFE64C-B453-4C4F-8AEB-D300F0A02E01.thumb.gif.62571e32e722adc000184eaa21430079.gif5EDCD19D-9CAE-44E8-BF05-00F1D6724C45.thumb.png.8d1c2077a6d3600ad5a3026a7dd60eb7.png

 

It looks identical to UKMO to me?

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
×
×
  • Create New...