Model output discussion - deep cold inbound?

[Tim Bland]

4 minutes ago, DCee said:

Midlands north event by the look of things, 12z is continuing the new trend away from the cold easterly (more for the south as things stand).

Lots of rain following behind with a an awful SW flow.

I expect the ECM and UKMO will follow the GFS soon. 

Actually laughed out loud. You  are either on a wind up or you haven’t been following the runs. I’m sure you will get the reaction you are after though  

GEM is the run of the afternoon for me. I expect ECM to be similar. I’ll send you the money for a pint if it follows the GFS If GFS backs down tomorrow I’m sure you will do the right thing and admit you were  wrong

[Updated_Weather]

6 minutes ago, DCee said:

Midlands north event by the look of things, 12z is continuing the new trend away from the cold easterly (more for the south as things stand).

Lots of rain following behind with a an awful SW flow.

I expect the ECM and UKMO will follow the GFS soon. 

Doubt it very much. GFS was an outlier.. ECM and UKMO will probably stick to it’s output as GFS slowly.. catch up.

[Lukesluckybunch]

I do have a bad feeling though that this cold spell won't materialise,even that the ECM coming up shortly won't be half as good as this mornings.I do hope I am wrong!it's just the whole set up looks very marginal and rather messy that's how i see things.

[Geordiesnow]

I think we all got to realise the overall trend has not changed but the crucial details could for some make a massive difference.

The behaviour of that low is so nerve shredding because if it does not clear south eastwards like most of us want it to do, then your relying on enough cold air on its northern flank to come in and turn any PPN to snow and not having the low pull away means milder air is much closer by and in some places(the SE) the milder air remains. I said yesterday the SE has not alot of room for error in this set up whilst NE Scotland does have more room for error and that has not changed.

It must be noted even if the low stays close by, there is still a significant snow risk for some but as I say, we need the colder air on the northern flank of the low to head in properly for that to happen.

Such fine margins between a widespread bitter easterly or a cold easterly with snow risk for some.

[supernova]

Don't even need to look at the GEFS to understand whether GFS Op is an outlier. If that chart verifies I'll buy everyone on here a beer. Twice.

[northwestsnow]

26 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

GEM is closer to what I’d expect. Like I said earlier-  GFS always adjusts lows south and makes them shallower. It’s don’t this a bit compared to 06z but it’s still got a way to go ...I’d expect another 75-100 mile shift south over the next few days 

Crikey GEM is a snow festival for the SE in particular.

[Snowman.]

1 minute ago, supernova said:

Don't even need to look at the GEFS to understand whether GFS Op is an outlier. If that chart verifies I'll buy everyone on here a beer. Twice.

Made an audible shreak of pain when I looked at that.

[chris55]

2 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Actually laughed out loud. You  are either on a wind up or you haven’t been following the runs. I’m sure you will get the reaction you are after though  

GEM is the run of the afternoon for me. I expect ECM to be similar. I’ll send you the money for a pint if it follows the GFS If GFS backs down tomorrow I’m sure you will do the right thing and admit you were  wrong

I know its only one model ( a very good one lol) but this really highlights a relevant point, France and Spain snowless!

I remember many an easterly miss us to the south and end up in France with the UK being squeezed by a positively tilted Atlantic. At least in this scenario we are not at risk of that and the risk is weighted in the opposite direction. A much better pattern and one that is more likely to trend south if anything.

[Bricriu]

From an imby perspective, the GEM scenario would be very good for us over here. If ever i could bank a run it would be this one!

[kold weather]

3 minutes ago, snowking said:

Trying to figure that one out myself Nick - given the flow on the +144 chart we must be missing something between +120 and +144 to end up with those 850mb temps. I'm not complaining about it, but was a bit of a head scratcher.

The only thing I can see is there is a small core of lower thicknesses that are sat over the SE UK around 06-18z on the UKMO on Saturday which then withdraws away to the east. This then ushers in a colder airflow from the ENE and much colder 850hpa temps, but interestingly because the geopotential  thickness rises quite quickly from the SW it actually leads to thicknesses increasing as there is a very small little ridge that that forms ahead of the upper low coming closer from the SW. There is only a very small rise in terms of the pressure but the GP thicknesses rises by a bigger degree it increases the thickness.

Depsite the colder air coming in from the north sea.

Thats my best guess?

[jacke]

42 minutes ago, danm said:

Sub -10c coming into the east. Plenty cold enough for convective snow showers to kick off. 

Sorry but -9 is pretty cold uppers these days, plenty cold enough for conventional snow showers, how far they progress inland depends on other factors.

[Djdazzle]

Any news on the GFSP?

[danm]

1 minute ago, jacke said:

Sorry but -9 is pretty cold uppers these days, plenty cold enough for conventional snow showers, how far they progress inland depends on other factors.

I agree. My post was in response to someone who said there's nothing special about the uppers on the UKMO. I begged to differ. Not record breaking, but more than cold enough.

[Notty]

1 minute ago, Djdazzle said:

Any news on the GFSP?

Yes it was showing it's older brother up so has been sent to bed 

[ICE COLD]

3 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

Any news on the GFSP?

Still not coming out at the min . 

[Blessed Weather]

Meteociel message about GFS Parallel:

Problèmes sur le serveur de données de la NOAA. Retour progressif à la normale.
Problem on the NOAA data server. Back to normal progressively.

[Guest]

24 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Actually laughed out loud. You  are either on a wind up or you haven’t been following the runs. I’m sure you will get the reaction you are after though  

GEM is the run of the afternoon for me. I expect ECM to be similar. I’ll send you the money for a pint if it follows the GFS If GFS backs down tomorrow I’m sure you will do the right thing and admit you were  wrong

Hi Tim,

I would very much enjoy a cold and snowy time, and of course I do hope I am wrong more than anyone. But, alas, I am not usually wrong im afraid (no matter how much I want to be).

When you have money in the game it helps removes the bias, believe me!

So much can go wrong and prevent the lows from moving south, the three sisters at 120h need to be just right...a phase here or missed phase there and its game over. The ECM tends to keep them together then slip under and around, quite a feat.

[StormyLincs]

33 minutes ago, supernova said:

Don't even need to look at the GEFS to understand whether GFS Op is an outlier. If that chart verifies I'll buy everyone on here a beer. Twice.

It shall be known as The Valentines Storm. 

[winterof79]

3 minutes ago, DCee said:

Hi Tim,

I would very much enjoy a cold and snowy time, and of course I do hope I am wrong more than anyone. But, alas, I am not usually wrong im afraid (no matter how much I want to be).

When you have money in the game it helps removes the bias, believe me!

So much can go wrong and prevent the lows from moving south, the three sisters at 120h need to be just right...a phase here or missed phase there and its game over. The ECM tends to keep them together then slip under and around, quite a feat.

Not following you there?Can you expand further please?

Cheers

[jacke]

46 minutes ago, DCee said:

Midlands north event by the look of things, 12z is continuing the new trend away from the cold easterly (more for the south as things stand).

Lots of rain following behind with a an awful SW flow.

I expect the ECM and UKMO will follow the GFS soon. 

Get a grip please, on what basis can you say that based on their current charts????

[supernova]

3 minutes ago, YellowSnow said:

It shall be known as The Valentines Storm. 

Classic!

As suspected, Op above the mean from start to finish (so far) and Control almost as warm.

 

Edited February 2, 2021 by supernova

[winterof79]

2 minutes ago, Polar Low said:

 

Any news on the GFSP?

Ah sorry. Think Blessed Weather covered it above.

Edited February 2, 2021 by Blessed Weather
Comment in quote box removed

[Jayces]

9 minutes ago, DCee said:

Hi Tim,

I would very much enjoy a cold and snowy time, and of course I do hope I am wrong more than anyone. But, alas, I am not usually wrong im afraid (no matter how much I want to be).

When you have money in the game it helps removes the bias, believe me!

So much can go wrong and prevent the lows from moving south, the three sisters at 120h need to be just right...a phase here or missed phase there and its game over. The ECM tends to keep them together then slip under and around, quite a feat.

It's been often said that every model run provides a realistic plausible outcome based on the initialisation input data and the computing they do after all they've been programmed to produce weather output based on years of experience. So yes the GFS output shouldn't be dismissed but at the same time when every other model and the METO themselves, considered by many to be world leaders in their field are going against what the GFS is saying then surely you have to ask yourself what the chances are that the GFS is correct? We will know in a few days, the most likely scenario is that all models will converge on a middle ground scenario, maybe less cold but I suspect colder than the GFS for sure.

Edited February 2, 2021 by Jayces

[Updated_Weather]

3 minutes ago, Polar Low said:

 

Any news on the GFSP?

Still waiting for it to start. 
 

NOAA server problems!

Edited February 2, 2021 by Blessed Weather
Comment in quote box removed

[Anthony Burden]

Very wintery picture from met office 30day some possibly sever weather on it’s way to most

of U.K.big question mark regarding GFS Synoptics as Matt Hugo stated a few days ago.

ECM tonight will be very interesting,my take look to the east , snow severe frosts all on 

the agenda,get ready to batten down the hatches.