Model output discussion - deep cold inbound?

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Incredible NH profile on the 12z. The odds are definitely stacking in our favour of some proper cold. Widespread Northern blocking now being churned out. 

[frosty ground]

3 minutes ago, chris55 said:

UKMO 144!

Icon like, I think the special easterly is slowly being morphed into a regular cold spell

[Radiating Dendrite]

I find it ironic that it is a low over Iberia causing the issues when we have had constant heights there being a pain for the last couple of months.

The joys of trying to get snowflake in the UK!

[weirpig]

UKMO  shows -12 uppers into eastern parts on Monday   cold

[chris55]

People in the West will like a slider, the easterly flow needs to be cold but the -10s are not crucial....

People in the East and South East want the brutal 850s for the sea effect snow etc.

 

As Blue says, the envelope is set......just depends on the size and shape of the package. 

[Mark wheeler]

4 minutes ago, DIS1970 said:

SE quadrant of the country not looking great.

Looks fine on the UKMO 

[Updated_Weather]

Pretty confident to say.. GFS is having a paddy, doesn’t want to be shut down and have its brother be in the lime light!

UKMO/ECM - are the ones I’ll be paying attention too

[Froze were the Days]

2 minutes ago, Drifter said:

At 126 hours the GFS wants to take the low on another magical mystery tour and scupper the whole thing. 
Sick of it!

Ignore it then!...as long as ECM is on side, anyway in the initial stages an improvement on the 06z, it's the interaction between the small low and the Iberian low which doesn't get just that far east enough...and the rest is superfluous if this isn't modelled correctly. 

[sheikhy]

Gfs is clearly an improvement guys!!!i expect further corrections south!!!

[Jayfromcardiff]

Looks like Wales and the SW will be digging themselves out next week...

[londonblizzard]

1 minute ago, Djdazzle said:

Yes - it's heading in the right direction. Did people really expect it to flip back in one run?

Wouldn't put that past the GFS. 

[Djdazzle]

1 minute ago, JoeShmoe said:

has it?

Yes - it looks more like UKMO up until then. Who really cares what happens past then as that's pretty much the limit of reliability.

[Singularity]

 

Perhaps ironically, UKMO has the sliding low weaker to the point that it doesn't draw the very cold air across as well as the preceding run or ECM 00z.

On the other hand, the Atlantic trough is disrupting and it could just about be enough that a frontal wave would bring snow to the southwest.

Bit of a fine line though! Then again, without that you're mainly reliant on snow showers and localised disturbances in the flow.

ECM 00z also had the weaker low on Sat but deepened the low a bit to our SE during Sun. Another way to get more of that cold air west.

[seabreeze86]

GFS trying to sneak the easterly in a couple of days later and hope nobody notices 

Edited February 2, 2021 by seabreeze86

[Froze were the Days]

Strangely the GFS at 150z improves due low pressure and a stronger southern jet through particularly through Europe...with increasing cold getting enveloped

Edited February 2, 2021 by Froze were the Days

[frosty ground]

Unlike the 6z the GFS keeps the easterly flow once the troublesome low has moved on.

[chris55]

2 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

Icon like, I think the special easterly is slowly being morphed into a regular cold spell

A lot depends on where you live in the UK. Personally Im liking the trend from UKMO and ICON for The Atlantic to edge in, I live in the west, but for others a cleaner easterly would be preferred. All good fun.

[sheikhy]

Got a feeling ecms gona make us really happy in a couple of hours

[snowking]

1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

Ukmo day 6 thicknesses rise in s U.K. compared to day 5 

continental feed helps but not a frigid easterly by Monday lunchtime 

Exactly what I was thinking. It's a significantly better run than recent GFS runs, but it's far from what we were hoping to count down to from just a few days ago.

We'll need to see what happens as the various runs (hopefully) settle down over the next couple of days, but we seem to be moving away, at the moment at least, from what was shown - a few days "proper"  (or convective) easterly with a continental influence - towards more a brief incursion from the east, followed by watching how much any residual Atlantic energy can undercut the cold we manage to get in situ.

Whilst so many models are showing so many different things everything is still on the table, but the current direction of travel, it looks to me at least, is away from a more convective easterly and back towards something more akin to a battleground scenario. I hope to see that direction reversing somewhat starting with the 12z ECM.

[IDO]

GFS shows the easterly from around the M62 to Hadrian's Wall by d6-7:

 At d7: 

Lovely looking chart at d7, just need it to sink the pattern 100 miles? Great run for Scotland though.

[kold weather]

2 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Gfs is clearly an improvement guys!!!i expect further corrections south!!!

Its an improvement on the UK low.

But means literally nothing if it keeps trying to bring up the Iberian low like it is doing on the 12z run.

By the way, IF it does shift on the Iberian low, it really will shift quite drastically in one run, it won't be a drip-drip type thing, it will be a snap back type shift.

Same is true for the other models vs the GFS as well. 

[Malarky]

40% chance of a belting cold spell.

40% chance of a decent cold spell.

20% chance of sod all.

That's where I'm at.

[Weathizard]

‘Crucial 12z runs coming up - we should know after that’ 

everyone here after the first set of runs:

[Daniel*]

5 minutes ago, weirpig said:

UKMO  shows -12 uppers into eastern parts on Monday   cold

-10C.

 

[birdman]

4 minutes ago, Jayfromcardiff said:

Looks like Wales and the SW will be digging themselves out next week...

I don't think anyone knows what's going to happen in 6 days time dude.