Model output discussion - deep cold inbound?

[Frank Trough]

GFS still not exactly where i'd want it to be honest.

 

Low have phased again without the easterly establishing?

[weirpig]

Gfs  as no idea what to do with this low.     not a chance imo it will work as is shown here  anyway back to sanity

Edited February 2, 2021 by weirpig

[Drifter]

At 126 hours the GFS wants to take the low on another magical mystery tour and scupper the whole thing. 
Sick of it!

[kold weather]

1 minute ago, That ECM said:

Much better.

Not really, at least for the south.

Still bringing up the Iberian low which brings up too warm air for the whole of the south. It may look similar to the UKMO, but its a wolf in sheeps clothing!

Big snow event for the north of England, rain for rest of England.

 

[JoeShmoe]

18 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

Its been delayed for the last few days, Friday start now its early Sunday. (Very cold uppers)

Now its Monday lol, by 18z on Sunday the -10 uppers are (just) into Northern Scotland

[DIS1970]

SE quadrant of the country not looking great, beyond 3 days looking like any toss of the dice.

Edited February 2, 2021 by DIS1970

[Howie]

The gfs is still a bit rubbish tbh, why has it suddenly gone awol after being so consistent for days? Surely something has to give now because the UKMO is very different at such a short lead time 

Edited February 2, 2021 by Howie

[chris55]

UKMO 144!

[frosty ground]

Just now, Mike Poole said:

UKMO T144, that low should now slide and go south of the majority of the country so a good run, similar to this morning.

It will do, and as we know it will be pushed further south (west) than shown, should allow for a longer easterly

[Matt Jones]

Not so sure about the UKMO 144hr, we don't seem to be progressing for days now we have had the same chart at 144hrs. Not convinced it has the legs from there to produce deep cold from the east. 

[Gowon]

ukmo looks like the middle ground to me at 144

 

[That ECM]

Just now, kold weather said:

Not really, at least for the south.

Still bringing up the Iberian low which brings up too warm air for the whole of the south. It may look similar to the UKMO, but its a wolf in sheeps clothing!

Big snow event for the north of England, rain for rest of England.

 

Much better wrt to the low upto t96 from there it goes of on it Merry way. Ukmo solid. I’m happy for now.

[frosty ground]

 UKM 12z 120hour

[Drifter]

I just don’t get why the low won’t slink off towards Italy.

What is the GFS playing at exactly?

[frosty ground]

Just now, sheikhy said:

Gfs is waay better!!

Sleet better than rain?

[londonblizzard]

Movement in the right direction but cold uppers still nowhere to be seen on the GFS 12Z other than Scotland and the far north of England 

[Notty]

UKMO - Cold next Sunday for all

[Djdazzle]

The GFS has improved up to 96. That is all that matters at the moment.

[Daniel*]

GFS 12z somehow manages to be worse nothing positive to say it’s the Iberian low which is important and it’s further west.

[kold weather]

2 minutes ago, Drifter said:

I just don’t get why the low won’t slink off towards Italy.

What is the GFS playing at exactly?

The GFS is simply making that Iberian low the dominant low which means it swings up north around the decaying UK low.

If the Iberian low remains weaker, it will get slingshotted NE as per the UKMO run. 

The 12z GFS still very much on its own regarding that low so far...and so for now unless the ECM shifts you've got to think its the GFS seeing something that just isn't there.

Edited February 2, 2021 by kold weather

[Notty]

UKMO - Looks like snow into the SW next Monday

[bluearmy]

Ukmo day 6 thicknesses rise in s U.K. compared to day 5 

continental feed helps but not a frigid easterly by Monday lunchtime 

looking at the uppers I must have miscalculated!

something isnt right with the Meteociel chart day 6

thickness 529 dam and uppers -10c e anglia ??? 

 

Edited February 2, 2021 by bluearmy

[Gustywind]

GFS is clueless, it’s proved that via its backtracking earlier in the run, stick with the UKMO, absolutely rock solid & unlikely to be wrong at T96

[JoeShmoe]

1 minute ago, Djdazzle said:

The GFS has improved up to 96. That is all that matters at the moment.

has it?

[Djdazzle]

Just now, frosty ground said:

Sleet better than rain?

Yes - it's heading in the right direction. Did people really expect it to flip back in one run?