Model output discussion - deep cold inbound?

[Mike Poole]

1 minute ago, Smartie said:

Those of us in the SW already are going by that icon chart being posted. 

Yes, it is a question of what our baseline expectation is coming into this 12z suite, for me a period of easterly winds with -8 uppers or below country wide is the bar now, given the runs we have seen in recent days.  Yes ECM 0z was probably the best to hope for, but I’d be looking for more than what ICON delivers.  On to the GFS, this one really does matter.

[ICE COLD]

Yep the Arpege is good . No problem there . 
 

T114

[Timmytour]

GFS has the low further east...

NB  pics are irrelevant.....I can't get rid of them!

Edited February 2, 2021 by Polar Maritime
There we go ?

[frosty ground]

3 minutes ago, JoeShmoe said:

I know folks are looking past T-96 but really the initial low building back up to NE Scotland isn't good news at all as has been pointed out on here many times today .. that prevents the clean easterly flow, doesn't bring the cold uppers down (even here) and sets up for more downgrades as the resolution gets closer

Lets hope the other models don't take it as far north ... 

Its been delayed for the last few days, Friday start now its early Sunday. (Very cold uppers)

[londonblizzard]

If all the models now correct to the GFS it'll obviously be very disappointing, but wow that model will certainly have gone up in cred. It's make or break over the next few runs.

[goosey007]

6 minutes ago, andymusic said:

lovely stalling low on the Icon - brilliant for us in Wales for a dumping

 half way house suits wales .......im not selfish though happy for the gfs to show a full blown easterly ....

[Continental Climate]

Just now, frosty ground said:

Its been delayed for the last few days, Friday start now its early Sunday. (Very cold uppers)

You are correct a couple of days ago the easterly was firmly established by this Friday now its early Sunday. You watch, the cold uppers now won't get going until Monday. In my experience if the deep cold keeps getting pushed back it usually doesn't happen. 

[Djdazzle]

2 minutes ago, Continental Climate said:

You are correct a couple of days ago the easterly was firmly established by this Friday now its early Sunday. You watch, the cold uppers now won't get going until Monday. In my experience if the deep cold keeps getting pushed back it usually doesn't happen. 

That's very common with these setups. Although I don't think the very cold uppers were ever modelled to be here until the weekend.

Edited February 2, 2021 by Djdazzle

[weathertoski]

Low already considerably further south on GFS by 72hrs. 

[Gustywind]

1 minute ago, Continental Climate said:

You are correct a couple of days ago the easterly was firmly established by this Friday now its early Sunday. You watch, the cold uppers now won't get going until Monday. In my experience if the deep cold keeps getting pushed back it usually doesn't happen. 

Only really on the GFS, the UKMO has always been Saturday as has the ECM.

[That ECM]

The low is positioned differently on this run. 

[Mike Poole]

GFS T78 compared to 6z T84:

Looks like more space to escape SE on this one? 

[londonblizzard]

1 minute ago, Continental Climate said:

You are correct a couple of days ago the easterly was firmly established by this Friday now its early Sunday. You watch, the cold uppers now won't get going until Monday. In my experience if the deep cold keeps getting pushed back it usually doesn't happen. 

Pretty sure the coldest uppers with feb/march 2018 were pushed back until the wednesday, when originally it was going to be the monday?

[frosty ground]

Pin the tail on the ever moving low

Further south but IU think the main issue is the low that spins up from Spain later

[Captain Shortwave]

9 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

Its been delayed for the last few days, Friday start now its early Sunday. (Very cold uppers)

It was only ever the GFS a few days ago that was going for this. It was wrong, anyway the Arpege has frequent snow showers pushing westwards by Sunday morning.

Looking at around day 5 on the UKMO charts for the landing point of the -8c isotherm in the east, the GFS of course runs in shorter steps.

That ribbon of more unstable air running from Greenland to Scandinavia is proving a real hassle to resolve as when this cuts off at either end then one side of the pattern will stall. Most favour the break happening in the Atlantic that allows the low to clear east into the continent.

Edited February 2, 2021 by Captain Shortwave

[sheikhy]

Gfs looking better already?!

[TSNWK]

1st troublesome low is about 2 hundred miles further south - was over the highlands this morning, now around Dublin I guess

 

[winterof79]

Easterly incoming better high to the north

Edited February 2, 2021 by winterof79

[Battleground Snow]

UKMO at 96, rock solid!

 

[Notty]

Latest UKMO T+96

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Cold air to the East is also further south! It’s little corrections like this that can have enormous implications and differences! A trend in the right direction for sure. 

[Drifter]

UKMO already looking good at 96hrs. 

[sheikhy]

Hmmm looks good peeps at 90 hours!!

[snowice]

1 minute ago, TSNWK said:

1st troublesome low is about 2 hundred miles further south - was over the highlands this morning, now around Dublin I guess

 

Its stopping of in Dublin for a Guinness before it goes on hoilday to France.

[ICE COLD]

OMG think gfs is doing it