Model output discussion - deep cold inbound?

[Tim Bland]

After a brief easterly with snow showers in the east Sunday it Looks like a load of  snow inbound from south west to me...

[weirpig]

for some the icon  isnt the best with the cold uppers struggling to make inroads    for others its cold enough  for when the atlantic tries to make inroads it stalls and produces  snow.    just one run  on one model  in Fi

[IDO]

We can see how the ICON has edged towards the gfs but not quite matched that worst case scenario on this run:

0z:12z>

On the 0z the low in France clears away with no threat of merging with the undercutting low from the west. On the 12z they are much closer. The gfs joins the two and blows them up and kills the easterly.

It certainly limits the easterly and not a good trend. Next Tuesday:

 

Edited February 2, 2021 by IDO

[kold weather]

6 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

ICON T132 - oh dear!

These two lows are getting too close together for my liking.

Mind you the ICON is blowing that atlantic low far beyond the other models. 970mbs vs 990mbs for all other models.

What has been said about the GFS can be said regarding ICON, be suspect about ANY model that blows up individual low pressure systems far beyond the mean of the other models.

Still ICON probably is a solid middle ground between the GFS/ECM solutions, I wouldn't be surprised if the general solution isn't far off.

Edited February 2, 2021 by kold weather

[Vortex3929]

47 minutes ago, snowfall09 said:

Hi all,

Would someone be able to list the different models and their roll out times please.

Thanks 

Hope this helps 

[bluearmy]

6 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

ICON T132 - oh dear!

These two lows are getting too close together for my liking.

If that’s the worst point in the envelope I’ll cope !

[IW Met]

1 minute ago, Badgers01 said:

A stalling low out west is not what we want !

No problem if the main low stalls, as long as it sends a trough eastwards, that can then "prop" up any heights to our north.

 

[mushymanrob]

1 hour ago, Georgina said:

Was this mornings Gfs an outlier ? I’ve not had time to look to see the ensembles and now it’s a new thread

We have gone into some detail at TAW today

[kold weather]

Just now, bluearmy said:

If that’s the worst point in the envelope I’ll cope !

Personally here, thats a decent snow event.

I can see the concern though, its still a decent run away from the SW for a great majority but you would only have to shift it northwards and a great percentage of the country is going to be very upset!

[frosty ground]

Just a small difference in the shape of the high to the north, but the east becomes dryer and the south west becomes a battle ground.

We all know sliders shift south over time which would mean the easterlies would still happen.

[JoeShmoe]

I know folks are looking past T-96 but really the initial low building back up to NE Scotland isn't good news at all as has been pointed out on here many times today .. that prevents the clean easterly flow, doesn't bring the cold uppers down (even here) and sets up for more downgrades as the resolution gets closer

Lets hope the other models don't take it as far north ... 

[Updated_Weather]

GFS 12z up next

[weirpig]

Icon  ends well  resists the low   which as produced snow for some   then  the colder uppers push west    

[Djdazzle]

We are relying on a lot of luck now it seems. And we don't tend to get any!

 

[winterof79]

Ok that for the ICON

[Liam J]

Close to epic charts on the 12z ICON.

The Atlantic westerlies heading into the med & Africa! 

This is not a bad start to the 12z runs. 

 

[Neilsouth]

1 minute ago, frosty ground said:

 

965MB dart board low? Same issue with the GFS so I'll be binning this model run! I really don't trust the models when they do this

[bradymk]

Out of the two models that have updated so far, Arpege definitely takes it!! Not that ICON is terrible by any means. Behind the sofa now for the next two...

[Ice Day]

I really don't mind the Icon, looks like a snowy set up (although that's not reflected in its precip charts).  As @bluearmy says, if that's the worst we get, we're doing alright.  A few minor tweaks in the right directions and it's excellent (and of course a few in the wrong direction, it could be atrocious )

 

[ICE COLD]

To my un trained eye I thought the icon wasn’t to bad no it wasn’t the ECM from this morning but it’s still good . Better than gfs

Edited February 2, 2021 by ICE COLD

[Frosty_wsm]

4 minutes ago, kold weather said:

Personally here, thats a decent snow event.

I can see the concern though, its still a decent run away from the SW for a great majority but you would only have to shift it northwards and a great percentage of the country is going to be very upset!

Those of us in the SW already are going by that icon chart being posted. 

[andymusic]

lovely stalling low on the Icon - brilliant for us in Wales for a dumping

Edited February 2, 2021 by andymusic

[The Northern Ramper]

19 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Icon delaying the colder uppers ...

Getting a bit fed up of delays now...

None of which have happened yet.

[kold weather]

3 minutes ago, Ice Day said:

I really don't mind the Icon, looks like a snowy set up (although that's not reflected in its precip charts).  As @bluearmy says, if that's the worst we get, we're doing alright.  A few minor tweaks in the right directions and it's excellent (and of course a few in the wrong direction, it could be atrocious )

 

Yeah, as a middle point between the GFS/ECM its not a bad run, though as I said to bluearmy just now, its very borderline and that could switch either direction.

Still as long as we can get the cold air in, any way possible, what comes down the line can be worked with.

Its if we end up with a 06z GFS solution's where the cold never even makes it to the south in particular.

[A Frayed Knot]

1 minute ago, andymusic said:

lovely stalling low on the Icon - brilliant for us in Wales for a dumping

Stonking ain't it