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Potential for a cold easterly to develop this weekend, but model chaos agreeing on it


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Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)

    A look at the weather model divergence over recent days over what now looks to be the increasing potential for a cold easterly to develop over the weekend, with a risk of snow for some.
    nw image

    View the full blog here

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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

    I must admit my teeth were starting to chatter towards the end of the ECM 12z op...bone numbingly gorgeous charts! (completely unbiased)😜...what an EPIC spell we could be in for...currently there’s wonderful support and hopefully 🙏 the models will keep firming up on this trend..it will be one for the books if it happens..unleash the BEAST already!!!! 🥶 ❄️ 🛷 🎿 🦁 

    20D19618-9EC0-4025-A74C-ABA322775509.thumb.png.b1b4a83d9df596b95214e87e37c02da2.png0B4475A2-7D61-4B9D-B0BF-4EDE1A0D0108.thumb.png.fbf85a00785a39aa4151382f0da50177.pngA5FC3131-2D41-4D7A-81DA-E950C7F37A7A.thumb.png.68d0de2eabf4d62d0632c194a2aa6e8b.png8B191038-1C16-4B80-8D35-4B98717EADE5.thumb.png.321b9427ea17791d324e1678c892e6b3.png1E7D3D60-36EB-4B83-9A4C-A6716DD35DD3.thumb.png.b14b5539c7f1944a6812846bd5d7b941.png052BE9D5-5091-4C22-9372-9DA5185E3022.thumb.png.03ae3c2db909bc955255b3376209bb5c.png0D640163-21CB-4BCC-B081-DBA7B5963ACD.thumb.png.89a97c97bdf2c608a359cbda0cf5b08b.pngB1959194-9D3E-43B9-9E51-3AE65100548F.thumb.png.5246b8fa0e61e0361c12874f28c544af.png57223DBD-87CE-46A6-B2A2-73FE0B24D49C.thumb.png.8a6125264ce0d09180fce439a70844a7.png

    Edited by Jon Snow
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    Posted
  • Location: Edinburgh
  • Location: Edinburgh

    Dog walk update.  Started with rain at 6.30, as the precip got heavier and I gained a little altitude, so sleet started.  At Fairmilehead it was briefly blizzard conditions, with snow settling readily.  Back down in to Morningside and precip eased off and it returned to sleet then rain.  My summary is a wintry mix for Edinburgh today, with snow to low levels in the heavier bursts.

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    Posted
  • Location: manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Summer & Winter
  • Location: manchester

    Didn't we have the easterly early on in January with below zero uppers which gave us rain? What a waste that was. 

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    Posted
  • Location: wigan
  • Location: wigan

    Well, we have seen this all before and little has actually been right. It should be noted that only Eastern areas are going to see Sea effect snow. South East could get blizzards like I myself saw in 1963. But us in Lancashire like Manchester and Liverpool are unlickly to see anything but freezing cold and dry weather. Only a Atlantic low pressure entering N West areas may have a chance of falling snow. But it will have a job getting past the easterly in place. But may be possible by under cutting  the prevailing new East flow.   However its doubtful Lancashire will get heavy snow, but sudden low or trough from the North West  would be the best route for snow 8n Blackpool and most of Lancashire. But I'm not holding my breath. The 2018 last beast we didn't see anything from that at all, ans a normal weather in Blackpool and Liverpool with not a flake to be seen as we face west, gulf stream effect of Pembrokeshire sends ocean warmer water up the West Coast, and greatly effects any chances of N west areas seeing snow from a prevailing Easterly. Of course not in concrete, many variables abound. However the longer the deep cold persists, the higher chance of country wide wintry pretipation. On my Windy. Com site GFS & ECM do not agree even up to the 6th - 8th Feb. However the BBC this morning kirkwood did mention odds on for the East cold to win as M ichael fish indicated last weekend. Saturdays forecasts will be vital in grinding down the details. Keep safe and don't go on long journeys without the vitals we had in the sixties   snow chains, a shovel, blankets for putting under tyres, lower tyre pressures to increase grip, a charged mobile phone.  Packs of snacks and  waters, make sure antifreeze is topped up wipers warning lights on top of car, but mainly take foot off accelorater, it can take 800 yards to stop on slippery roads. I am also a garage technician for many years, so many have not driven in wintry conditions or had skid pan lessons which I had as a trainee driving instructor in 1993. 😁

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