South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards

[Daniel*]

1 hour ago, jamesgold said:

That’ll be using todays 0z ECM run I think. If tomorrow’s 0z is anything like today’s 12z expect there to be quite a difference in that forecast. I know the point has been made already but it’s crazy that they take their charts from just one model, like they didn’t even hint at any “uncertainty” or anything which is surprising

Correct it is lazy and really a disgrace of British taxpayers money, the ECM 12z was frigid if that was 00z would have been plastered on graphics and everyone would have thought BFTE was on way! 

[Delka]

Not sure how long it’s been going for as i wasn’t expecting it, but currently sleeting, almost full snow about half hour ago but it’s light now. bit of slush, happy the temps are on the rise otherwise it’d be lethal in the morning!

[alexisj9]

Can't sleep, it's pooring out side. Not the reason, I can't sleep lol. 

[lassie23]

1 hour ago, alexisj9 said:

Can't sleep, it's pooring out side. Not the reason, I can't sleep lol. 

You can read all the posts saying the cold spell is going pear shaped. It usually happens in the morning lol

[alexisj9]

7 minutes ago, lassie23 said:

You can read all the posts saying the cold spell is going pear shaped. It usually happens in the morning lol

I hope not.

[lewis028]

ECM & UKMO still says yes for the easterly late weekend and into next week, GFS 06z on its own, confidence building and reeling it in. Seems so long away to get this within 72-96

Edit: -12/-14 uppers into our region midweek on the ecm!! What a run

Edited February 2, 2021 by lewis028

[Kent Blizzard]

GFS throws a spanner in the works, everything still in the balance.....who will come out on top?

It's going to be a day of flip flopping, would imagine the Mad thread will see a few barney rubbles.

I wouldn't be surprised if by this evening but more so tomorrow morning the GFS gets back on-board, but I'll keep my money in my pocket for now.

Enjoy the ride over the next few days!

[stainesbloke]

And the model divergence begins...ECM looking pretty epic for a proper cold and possibly snowy spell, but GFS is completely different. Who will be right?

[Daniel*]

7 minutes ago, stainesbloke said:

And the model divergence begins...ECM looking pretty epic for a proper cold and possibly snowy spell, but GFS is completely different. Who will be right?

Well EPS is fully aboard with ECM thats only day 5 for the SE I’m 80/20 in favour of a cold easterly with snow. We’ve been here before GFS last to hop on, as I’ve said good at picking up scents being first to but then quick to lose it, and then be last to go back to it. How you could favour GFS/GEFS I’m not sure, the fact we tend to miss out isn’t scientific reasoning we occasionally do rather well and we could do well going foward.

[Icebox]

Well the standoff continues this Morning... GFS v the Euro's, the American model is ploughing its own furrow here but that doesn't mean it's wrong. It does have a history of overdoing LP's and this may be one of those occasions. Don't forget Paul Sherman nicknamed the GFS - GooFuS for a reason and it has led us up the garden path on many occasions. BUT... don't rule out the possibility of it calling this one right.

For me right now... 50/50.

[stainesbloke]

2 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

Well EPS is fully aboard with ECM thats only day 5 for the SE I’m 80/20 in favour of a cold easterly with snow. We’ve been here before GFS last to hop on, as I’ve said good at picking up scents being first to but then quick to lose it, and then be last to go back to it. How you could favour GFS/GEFS I’m not sure, the fact we tend to miss out isn’t scientific reasoning we occasionally do rather well and we could do well going foward.

The fact that ECM, UKMO, and GEM all show variations on a very cold theme are encouraging, of course. I agree that cold is looking more likely than not, at least for a few days. GFS has flipped rather suddenly towards a very different evolution (though still giving northern Britain a few wintry days). Interesting to see how things develop. 

[Blazerblue]

Raining, what more can I add, um, its wet and a tad cold and the flood water is rising.........again. 

[winterfreak]

I’d be happy with just a couple of days of laying snow. Enough to get the kids off their PC’s!!!!

Edited February 2, 2021 by winterfreak

[NewEra21]

For us down here in the SE & EA let's just hope and pray the GFS has lost the plot and the ECM and UKMO are correct. Charts from ECM

[Lauren]

Very jealous seeing all the snow elsewhere. Not had any since BFTE, feel like I've forgotten what it looks like!

[Big Dave]

1 hour ago, Kent Blizzard said:

GFS throws a spanner in the works, everything still in the balance.....who will come out on top?

It's going to be a day of flip flopping, would imagine the Mad thread will see a few barney rubbles.

I wouldn't be surprised if by this evening but more so tomorrow morning the GFS gets back on-board, but I'll keep my money in my pocket for now.

Enjoy the ride over the next few days!

TBH I cant see that there's anybody in the Mad thread to kick off.  Lots of usual suspects seem to be missing.  Am only an occasional lurker but I'm sure I'm not seeing a lot of the posters I was earlier in the season which is a shame given the current state of models.  

The Mad thread now seems quite balanced... probably a good thing, but dare I say bland? 

[Tom Quintavalle]

Morning all,

Hope I find yourselves and your Families, well.

I've got up with a slight Sore Throat. I've lost count the number of times, I've developed "faux" cold symptoms in the last 10 Months or so.

I'm convinced that my self and my Wife had Coronavirus in late Feb/early March last Year.

We both had classic symptoms, and my Wife still hasn't regained her sense of taste/smell, not far short of a Year now!!

My Wife, myself and 2 Stepsons, all received a negative CV Test result, a couple of Weeks ago but we'd obviously need a blood test to see if we've got antibodies, to the Virus but evidently these antibodies fade after about 5 Months?

I was tucked up in Bed when the GFS 18z was rolling out last Night and have only just finished reading, all the despondent posts, after that Run. I see the GFS 00z has continued with the same trend, whereas the European Models (ECM/METO), have stuck to a more Wintry theme.

No disrespect meant to the S,E, Member concerned but I see they fell into the BBC = Met Office trap.

I've stated it many times on here, the BBC ended their association with the Met Office, back in March 2018 and now take their Forecasts from a Private Forecasting Company, called MeteoGroup.

If you watch a BBC Forecast, you'll see it ends with the following sentence - "In association with MeteoGroup."

Evidently, they use the ECM Model, as their "go to" Forecast Model.

As you can see, on this Video clip of last Night's Weather for the Week Ahead, with Helen Willetts below, updated at 18.30 Yesterday:

Weather for the Week Ahead - BBC Weather

This would already be out of date though but it looks like a pretty Wintry extended outlook to me, with just a hint of a slow warm up, at the end of the Forecast.

Below, is the latest Met Office L.R.F., for Sat 6th Feb - Mon. 15th Feb, updated at 4.00 AM this Morning.

UK long range weather forecast

Saturday 6 Feb - Monday 15 Feb

Remaining unsettled for much of the UK on Saturday with showers and longer spells of precipitation, wintry in places, especially in northern areas with a risk of heavy snowfall. High pressure then looks to gradually build to the north, which will introduce cold and dry weather across the UK, with widespread overnight frosts, though wintry showers could still feed in from the east coast at times. It will likely feel cold, or rather cold, especially in brisk easterly winds. Icy stretches along with other disruptive wintry hazards, remain a possibility for all areas. There also remains the possibility of milder and wetter conditions fringing the far northwest at times, along with organised areas of cloud and precipitation making limited progress inland from the southwest.

Updated: 04:00 (UTC) on Tue 2 Feb 2021.

These thoughts havn't changed, in the last few Days.

Regards,

Tom. 

[Hammer]

All looks fine on UKMO and ECM, but different on GFS. Let's see if we get some more certainty during the 12z. 

[Neilsouth]

Lucky so and so's!

 

 

[Ian Docwra]

1 hour ago, TomSE12 said:

Morning all,

Hope I find yourselves and your Families, well.

I've got up with a slight Sore Throat. I've lost count the number of times, I've developed "faux" cold symptoms in the last 10 Months or so.

I'm convinced that my self and my Wife had Coronavirus in late Feb/early March last Year.

We both had classic symptoms, and my Wife still hasn't regained her sense of taste/smell, not far short of a Year now!!

My Wife, myself and 2 Stepsons, all received a negative CV Test result, a couple of Weeks ago but we'd obviously need a blood test to see if we've got antibodies, to the Virus but evidently these antibodies fade after about 5 Months?

I was tucked up in Bed when the GFS 18z was rolling out last Night and have only just finished reading, all the despondent posts, after that Run. I see the GFS 00z has continued with the same trend, whereas the European Models (ECM/METO), have stuck to a more Wintry theme.

No disrespect meant to the S,E, Member concerned but I see they fell into the BBC = Met Office trap.

I've stated it many times on here, the BBC ended their association with the Met Office, back in March 2018 and now take their Forecasts from a Private Forecasting Company, called MeteoGroup.

If you watch a BBC Forecast, you'll see it ends with the following sentence - "In association with MeteoGroup."

Evidently, they use the ECM Model, as their "go to" Forecast Model.

As you can see, on this Video clip of last Night's Weather for the Week Ahead, with Helen Willetts below, updated at 18.30 Yesterday:

Weather for the Week Ahead - BBC Weather

This would already be out of date though but it looks like a pretty Wintry extended outlook to me, with just a hint of a slow warm up, at the end of the Forecast.

Below, is the latest Met Office L.R.F., for Sat 6th Feb - Mon. 15th Feb, updated at 4.00 AM this Morning.

UK long range weather forecast

Saturday 6 Feb - Monday 15 Feb

Remaining unsettled for much of the UK on Saturday with showers and longer spells of precipitation, wintry in places, especially in northern areas with a risk of heavy snowfall. High pressure then looks to gradually build to the north, which will introduce cold and dry weather across the UK, with widespread overnight frosts, though wintry showers could still feed in from the east coast at times. It will likely feel cold, or rather cold, especially in brisk easterly winds. Icy stretches along with other disruptive wintry hazards, remain a possibility for all areas. There also remains the possibility of milder and wetter conditions fringing the far northwest at times, along with organised areas of cloud and precipitation making limited progress inland from the southwest.

Updated: 04:00 (UTC) on Tue 2 Feb 2021.

These thoughts havn't changed, in the last few Days.

Regards,

Tom. 

Indeed; the BBC output is markedly poorer than when the Met Office provided the basis.  Does anyone here not realise that MeteoGroup is the provider?  I have sent countless examples of the awful quality of their output to the BBC, with no meaningful responses.  It is a classic case of value-for-money being sacrificed for plain cheapness (at least I hope it's cheap!). 

Having a set of models is one thing, but the sloppy way the output is provided to the public via the BBC is quite another.  Typos and grammatical errors abound and the whole thing looks like it has been rushed out every time, as if it was desperately urgent breaking news.  There seems to be no checking for quality and there are countless contradictions within the detail, which, basically, is too great to be useful.  

[Mark]

I find myself just sitting here waiting for the next qualified post about the next model runs.

I'm not sure I can take this for 4 days! 

[alexisj9]

3 hours ago, stainesbloke said:

And the model divergence begins...ECM looking pretty epic for a proper cold and possibly snowy spell, but GFS is completely different. Who will be right?

GFS is doing it's normal blow up the low thing, although sometimes it's right. We'll see.

[Mark Bayley]

Out of interest how do places like NW London tend to out of set ups advertised by the UKMO and ECMWF / Easterlie? One of the great aspects of living in Yorkshire was that we always did very well in Easterly set ups!

[MAF]

just to add some balance. ITV now use Met Office for their forecasts. The Met Office Logo appears on the forecast when broadcast.  

[lassie23]

8 minutes ago, Mark Bayley said:

Out of interest how do places like NW London tend to out of set ups advertised by the UKMO and ECMWF / Easterlie? One of the great aspects of living in Yorkshire was that we always did very well in Easterly set ups!

We have had a foot of snow before from an easterly in NW London. Obviously Kent and eastern most counties do best.