South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards

[saintkip]

1 minute ago, Hurricane Squad said:

Hopefuly but I never seem to get as much as others on every snow day.

Glass half empty kind of guy

[Neilsouth]

Just head on the radio!

- Up to 25CM

- High Wind Chill

- Blizzards

- Traffic and possible power outages, as from Sunday

[Speedbird]

9 minutes ago, Mr_Pessimistic said:

Yes, excellent thanks, you?  (I won the lottery yesterday - but not interested in that, just want some snow.)

on a Thursday ?  I'll make sure i enter next week . . .

[Jamie M]

4 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

Cold eh?

 

Balmy -3°C at Manston. 

[Eagle Eye]

Just now, saintkip said:

Glass half empty kind of guy

More like the glass doesn't exist.

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

6 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

Beeb I’ll be using stale data @6;30 forecast as by then 12z will be still in running .... again far too much doom.. this is evolving and looks  brilliant for most if not ALL.. take some tablets or something ..some ya..

Need some Kronenburgs soon!!

[johnc1106]

17 minutes ago, kold weather said:

Based on the 12z ICON right now, areas to look for streamers, :

1 Sunday daytime - maybe Thames streamer favoured areas usual NW/ Kent and far S.Essex, S.London and through E.Surrey and out through W.Sussex. May also have a Kent streamer as well as there is a turn towards NE further east in the flow

2: Sunday night - Pretty similar to above, maybe a shift slightly east in the main zone.

3: Monday - Shift towards more of a true ENE. Any Thames streamer that sets up would shift further west towards SW London, C/W Surrey and through Hampshire.

Its worth noting its possible no streamer forms at all, they can be a little unpredictable, and so it may well all come down to timings and some may miss out if there is no streamer during the window of time where the winds are optimal.

That will be a total nowcast, as even the high resolution models struggle with this.

Hi Kold, re (1) and possibly (2)... wouldn't the 'front' kill-off any streamer activity until it slips away?

[snowking]

1 minute ago, kold weather said:

Interesting to see the GFS along with the ARPEGE is setting up quite a strong band of convection working through from Norfolk SW  in an arc through C/W EA and then out though Berkshire and Hampshire. 

This area shifts westwards as the steering currents start to turn more ENE and brings increasing risk of a Thames streamer with it.

This could be something for western parts of the region to keep a close eye on Sunday evening, especially as the GFS isn't the only model showing this little band. This maybe my best shot at getting a decent fall of snow on Sunday before the winds shift ENE upstream overnight.

The GFS has actually been surprisingly consistent with this idea for quite a few runs now, it must be some sort of convergence line

I just wish it were something other than the GFS!

[Stabilo19]

12Z GFS has at least 24 hours of continuous moderate snow for N/NW Kent & E/NE East Anglia Sun-Mon, and then intermittent light/moderate snow continuing thereafter. The snow will be piling up in places. 

 

[Kentspur]

9 minutes ago, southbank said:

so 4 models  ICON / GFS/UKV and APERGE  not one , not one showing the same thing from an event that starts in 48 hours

 

Shows you that once the broad picture is agreed  it really is a radar watch otherwise you go mental with all these up and downs

I've only just woken up after my night shift care to share the images as there's way too many posts for me to catch up whats the rough estimates? I've just seen im inside the Amber warning zone just about! ?❄

Edited February 5, 2021 by Kentspur

[tight isobar]

22 minutes ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

Need some Kronenburgs soon!!

Get down that offy pal .. and ask for some tin can medication

Edited February 5, 2021 by Paul

[kold weather]

1 minute ago, johnc1106 said:

Hi Kold, re (1) and possibly (2)... wouldn't the 'front' kill-off any streamer activity until it slips away?

The front itself is well south of our region by Sunday daytime. The precip looks like its from a general area of instablity that filters across to the north of the frontal zone. 

Back in Feb 18 a modest streamer set up literally in the middle of a weak frontal system, broke out around 9am on the Monday I believe as the cold front slowly edged southwards.

[Paul Sherman]

Underwhelming set of 12z's so far the rollercoaster ride in full effect.

Just as an aside the front that pumps the precip into the Uk has its origins in Eastern Poland through Germany and the Low Countires which is madness. Some of my Storm Chasing Buddies in Holland are expected to get 30-40cm of snow from this as well. Going to be some stupidly low dewpoints by wednesday with some -10c to -15c readings meaning super dry continental air being imported into the Uk.

Expect to see Rime Ice and freezing fog by midweek as well so get those cameras charged peeps

 

[Mark]

Firstly, I don't use the weather apps as gospel, much prefer the human input here, but does anyone know how often they update?

Mine seems to change every 10 minutes. 

Obviously automated, but how can it get such a changing forecast over such a short time period?

* Specifically the Meto app

Edited February 5, 2021 by Mark

[alexisj9]

4 minutes ago, Neilsouth said:

Just head on the radio!

- Up to 25CM

- High Wind Chill

- Blizzards

- Traffic and possible power outages, as from Sunday

Yep why they have us on a high impact, when confidence grows, we will not be amber. Some serious weather incoming.

[Eagle Eye]

BBC going for 19 straight hours of Snow for me, last time that happened there was a white blanket over the whole and that was the last time I went Sledging as well, good luck to everyone looks like huge amounts of Snow hopefully we do see something similiar to 2018 possibly even like a 2013, for me 2013 saw halfway up to the Door levels of snow. 

[Paul Sherman]

Am hoping to do a facebook live if there are 40mph winds and Blizzards at some point on Sunday as probably wont see those conditions very much in my lifetime in this country, have a country park near me which is exposed to the east so should get some serious drifting pics if snow accumulation is heavy enough, like Alexis said could be some harsh conditions out there

[seb]

Every time I check different weather apps (including MetO and the text forecast) this just gets better and better.

[kold weather]

3 minutes ago, snowking said:

The GFS has actually been surprisingly consistent with this idea for quite a few runs now, it must be some sort of convergence line

I just wish it were something other than the GFS!

ARPEGE did have that banding until todays 12z where the run shunts the whole lot so far east that it doesn't appear to form over the UK at all and instead we have the streamers developing.

Plenty of things to watch out for even if Saturday whiffs out for the west of the region.

[snowking]

I'm afraid aside from the GFS, the trend to push everything further SE is continuing, with the Arome and Harmonie models also significantly further SE than on their 6z runs.

At this rate, we might as well just get rid of the system and rely on showers off the North Sea instead

Edited February 5, 2021 by snowking

[Eagle Eye]

3 minutes ago, Paul Sherman said:

 

Just as an aside the front that pumps the precip into the Uk has its origins in Eastern Poland through Germany and the Low Countires which is madness. Some of my Storm Chasing Buddies in Holland are expected to get 30-40cm of snow from this as well. Going to be some stupidly low dewpoints by wednesday with some -10c to -15c readings meaning super dry continental 

Expect to see Rime Ice and freezing fog by midweek as well so get those cameras charged peeps

 

I know a few people from the Netherlands as well, one from Poland wish I'd asked him for a picture of the Snow a few weeks ago, crazy levels there. My camera's battery operated so I should be fine. 

[kate1]

The MetO have just updated their weekend forecast - I know this is really NIMBY (or IMBY) of me, and I suspect other parts of Kent will do better than us here on the W Kent/East Sussex borders - but anyway, they are suggesting that Kent in particular will see 'significant' amounts of snow over Saturday night and into Sunday. 

[saintkip]

If it wasn’t for covid I’d be planning a trip to Kent. Been on many a snow hunt, once was so busy chasing a snow cloud I ran out of petrol, what a gimp

[LightningLover]

Very much liking the look of this!

[Mark]

Beautiful spring like day here today. Hardly a cloud and some proper warm sunshine, and hardly a breath. Definitely the calm before.