South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards

[snow raven]

Think I'm going to take a break from here for 24 hours...  Not sure my nerves can stand this rollercoaster of excitement followed by disappointment, will it, won't it...

[lottiekent]

2 minutes ago, Hurricane Squad said:

Anybody noticed it's been colder than the models expected so who knows there could be more snow so that rain expected in Kent in the Afternoon On Sunday might end up being sleet or maybe even snow.

It's not meant to rain on Sunday now Xander - the change from rain to snow is expected to happen overnight Saturday so it should be snowing Sunday morning.

[Ols500]

Just now, Radiating Dendrite said:

Love nose of -10 850s on that GFS chart through the region.

That will certainly get a streamer going! I am thinking an Feb 09 repeat - that only lasted 9 hours as well!

No need for any pessimism in this thread. Some would think we were in the isles of scilly!

Epsom had the highest total that day. 31cms.

[Downpour]

GFS is better.

We shall see. 

BBC will have to forecast this properly tonight I think. Be interesting to see where they end up. 

[danm]

Just now, prolongedSnowLover said:

The whole thing needs to be a 100 miles West to benefit more counties. It’ll just be very light precipitation in the West otherwise!

Seeing as the whole system is moving away SE, that is fairly unlikely now. I think the current warning zones are about correct - Essex, Kent, perhaps the eastern side of London doing best, out towards Herts, Berks, Bucks, Surrey, West Sussex etc seeing less. However, convection should then kick off as we go into Sunday night and Monday. 

[lassie23]

2 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:

Cut the grass!?!...if I did that on my back lawn the rain we've had the lawnmower would go under and me!

My grass is a bog too

[kold weather]

I'm literally on the SW extent on the 12z GFS.

I get the feeling I'm actually in a real poor spot here on Sunday morning, because the stronger area of precip moves through whilst its still mainly rain, the back end is much weaker around Hampshire and maybe W.Surrey (which is something all models have shown) which means there is much less snow compared with both further west and east. There is a gap so to speak.

Then Im probably a touch far west for anything other than flurries based on the 12z suite from the eastern area that gives the rest of the region a good snowfall. So maybe a light dusting for my locally with light flurries for the rest of Sunday morning?

At least I won't have to contend with the roads I suppose on Sunday morning in that case! Then there is the lucky draw of any streamers!

Edited February 5, 2021 by kold weather

[Eagle Eye]

2 minutes ago, lottiekent said:

It's not meant to rain on Sunday now Xander - the change from rain to snow is expected to happen overnight Saturday so it should be snowing Sunday morning.

Met Office thing showed rain aroound midday.

[Mr_Pessimistic]

11 minutes ago, lawrenk said:

Had a good week, Mr Pessimistic?

Yes, excellent thanks, you?  (I won the lottery yesterday - but not interested in that, just want some snow.)

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

2 minutes ago, danm said:

Seeing as the whole system is moving away SE, that is fairly unlikely now. I think the current warning zones are about correct - Essex, Kent, perhaps the eastern side of London doing best, out towards Herts, Berks, Bucks, Surrey, West Sussex etc seeing less. However, convection should then kick off as we go into Sunday night and Monday. 

The convection won’t bring much either being a NE’ instead of an E’

Edited February 5, 2021 by prolongedSnowLover

[Big Dave]

Just now, Hurricane Squad said:

Met Office thing showed rain aroound midday.

Are you mixing up Saturday and Sunday in your original post by any chance?  

Saturday - rain... turning to snow early hours Sunday morning

Sunday - snow

[Stu_London]

Just now, prolongedSnowLover said:

The convection won’t bring much either being a NE’ instead of an Email.

Good idea - we can email snow to those that miss out

[southbank]

5 hours ago, Paul Sherman said:

Lol Small World

I worked for Natwest back then at Kings X House and we were sent home at Midday on that Thursday, maybe it was a group idea to send home all the employees

Small World eh

thats is freaky !! yes i was at Goodmans Field early part of 90 - great place to work such a laugh great people

[Big Dave]

Just now, Stu_London said:

Good idea - we can email snow to those that miss out

[Eagle Eye]

2 minutes ago, Big Dave said:

Are you mixing up Saturday and Sunday in your original post by any chance?  

Saturday - rain... turning to snow early hours Sunday morning

Sunday - snow

Just realized It was for Saturday but I miss out on a lot of Snow on Sunday at the moment.

Edited February 5, 2021 by Hurricane Squad

[kold weather]

1 minute ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

The convection won’t bring much either being a NE’ instead of an E’

You will have a good chance Monday morning:

Steering turns  much closer to a due east, though honestly it switches from NE-E which means if any streamer forms its probably going to target several areas as it meanders around with the changing wind direction. 

[southbank]

so 4 models  ICON / GFS/UKV and APERGE  not one , not one showing the same thing from an event that starts in 48 hours

 

Shows you that once the broad picture is agreed  it really is a radar watch otherwise you go mental with all these up and downs

[tight isobar]

7 minutes ago, Downpour said:

GFS is better.

We shall see. 

BBC will have to forecast this properly tonight I think. Be interesting to see where they end up. 

Beeb I’ll be using stale data @6;30 forecast as by then 12z will be still in running .... again far too much doom.. this is evolving and looks  brilliant for most if not ALL.. take some tablets or something ..some ya..

Edited February 5, 2021 by tight isobar

[Big Dave]

Just now, Hurricane Squad said:

Just realzed It was for Saturday but I miss out on a lot of Snow on Sunday at the moment.

In Woodchurch???  

You must be on the edge of the Amber Zone and definitely in Yellow. 

[Daniel*]

Cold eh?

 

[Eagle Eye]

Just now, Big Dave said:

In Woodchurch???  

You must be on the edge of the Amber Zone and definitely in Yellow. 

Looking at the charts i'll have the lighter of the snow, in the middle o two of the heavier areas.

[Big Dave]

Just now, Hurricane Squad said:

Looking at the charts I'll have the lighter of the snow, in the middle o two of the heavier areas.

That's pinpoint accuracy.  The charts just don't work like that.   Your in the zone.  That's best you can hope for at this point. 

[tight isobar]

Just now, Daniel* said:

Cold eh?

 

  Exactly... this is a non marginal... snow machine incoming incursion....@polar conti...

[Eagle Eye]

Just now, Big Dave said:

That's pinpoint accuracy.  The charts just don't work like that.   Your in the zone.  That's best you can hope for at this point. 

Hopefuly but I never seem to get as much as others on every snow day.

[kold weather]

Interesting to see the GFS along with the ARPEGE is setting up quite a strong band of convection working through from Norfolk SW  in an arc through C/W EA and then out though Berkshire and Hampshire. 

This area shifts westwards as the steering currents start to turn more ENE and brings increasing risk of a Thames streamer with it.

This could be something for western parts of the region to keep a close eye on Sunday evening, especially as the GFS isn't the only model showing this little band. This maybe my best shot at getting a decent fall of snow on Sunday before the winds shift ENE upstream overnight.