South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards

[Tim Bland]

4 minutes ago, kold weather said:

Yes ICON has been really inconsistent with this band, though much of the difference comes from how it keeps handling the western extent differently.

Beyond Sunday afternoon I'd ignore the ICON precip maops, they are going to be next to useless as the ICON doesn't ever show inland convection in winter for some reason. It seems to be a weird issue with the model that I've not yet figured out!

Shows this for Monday lunchtime, so given it’s propensity to under do the shower activity could be a good sign for us !

[Southender]

1 minute ago, kold weather said:

Ouch ARPEGE 12z is rough:

Thats 11am Sunday btw!!

After that we end up in a streamer setting:

Somewhat worrying that both the ICON/ARPEGE have significantly shifted eastwards for Sunday, though I think it won't make too much practical difference for eastern parts and places exposed to streamers.

Lol even I miss out on that run.

[Stu_London]

1 hour ago, TomSE12 said:

For those Members, from Mid-Kent down to East Sussex, that depiction of Snowfall amounts on a N.E. flow, has the Mid-Kent Streamer written all over it: 

Regards,

Tom.  

I think whoever knocked this together has obviously spent some time in Tunbridge Wells to experience the so called snow events from January. 

[Snowman31]

I hate how things usually always go wrong closer to the time. Seems to happen most times. 

[Tim Bland]

If UKV & Euro4 go east then I’d get worried...

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

4 minutes ago, kold weather said:

Ouch ARPEGE 12z is rough:

Thats 8am Sunday btw!!

After that we end up in a streamer setting:

Somewhat worrying that both the ICON/ARPEGE have significantly shifted eastwards for Sunday, though I think it won't make too much practical difference for eastern parts and places exposed to streamers.

The weather fronts looked too Far East on the FAX charts! 
 

Probably just get a dusting of snow from any light showers that penetrate to the dry lands of Berkshire!

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

Just now, Tim Bland said:

If UKV & Euro4 go east then I’d get worried...

Afraid the trend is looking that way.

[Snowman31]

Just now, Tim Bland said:

If UKV & Euro4 go east then I’d get worried...

When do they run? 

[Ols500]

1 minute ago, Tim Bland said:

If UKV & Euro4 go east then I’d get worried...

Is it going down the pan

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

Throw away all your sledges unless you live in eastern areas

[Radiating Dendrite]

I would not get too concerned. The Meto are seriously onboard and a few weeks ago the models showed the snow stopping just north of London.

It ended making it up to the north Midlands.

It will be nowcast and given streamers, we have a couple of raffle tickets anyway!

[kold weather]

12z ARPEGE also brings across a channel frontal system that will probably kill any streamers off during Tuesday:

Perhaps light snow into the southern coastal counties on this run.

Not the best 12z ARPEGE really considering everything, 24hrs of streaming potential on this run, which could still give a large amount locally if things line up nicely.

EDIT - yep light snow for the south on the 12z ARPEGE, however I think its probably a fair way too far north on this run for Tuesday's low as its the only run I've seen that has snow reaching S.England. So probably best not too take this run too seriously beyond Monday.

Edited February 5, 2021 by kold weather

[Cableguy]

Not looking good for the West of the region is it, to be fair the members to the East of the region are long overdue so best of luck!

[snowspotter]

Ironic as we were worried about the low moving too far NW on Wednesday bringing rain to Kent. Now ‘al of a sudden’ it’s going east and south I mean do you trust the models at such a close range and met office to get it completely wrong ? 

[tight isobar]

8 minutes ago, kold weather said:

Ouch ARPEGE 12z is rough:

Thats 11am Sunday btw!!

After that we end up in a streamer setting:

Somewhat worrying that both the ICON/ARPEGE have significantly shifted eastwards for Sunday, though I think it won't make too much practical difference for eastern parts and places exposed to streamers.

It’s the Arpege.. ain’t worth a rub until 5hrs out..

[mattneal]

Just now, Cableguy said:

Not looking good for the West of the region is it, to be fair the members to the East of the region are long overdue so best of luck!

its only one model 

[winterfreak]

1 minute ago, snowspotter said:

Ironic as we were worried about the low moving too far NW on Wednesday bringing rain to Kent. Now ‘al of a sudden’ it’s going east and south I mean do you trust the models at such a close range and met office to get it completely wrong ? 

It’s nail biting ‘will it, won’t it’? Was it lassie saying is it now past the point of tits up??

 

maybe, maybe not. 

[Froze were the Days]

3 minutes ago, snowspotter said:

Ironic as we were worried about the low moving too far NW on Wednesday bringing rain to Kent. Now ‘al of a sudden’ it’s going east and south I mean do you trust the models at such a close range and met office to get it completely wrong ? 

Nope...outside chance of there not being the continuous snowfall and maybe just convectional stuff and maybe lower totals but I'd be very surprised if they screw it up within 48 hours!! If that happened now it would be worse than the infamous January 1985 c0ck up!

Edited February 5, 2021 by Froze were the Days

[Tim Bland]

Here is 12z UKV , Euro 4 out soon I think 

[tight isobar]

Last 1 on precipitation =rates =geographicals.. give it up and save yaself the drama until this time tomorrow.. it’s gonna go up n down like a yo yo. the high res...precipitation mods will draw in on this tomorrow!

Edited February 5, 2021 by Blessed Weather
Comment removed

[Snowman31]

Just now, Tim Bland said:

Here is 12z UKV , Euro 4 out soon I think 

Is that a change east or west from it's earlier run? 

[tight isobar]

2 minutes ago, winterfreak said:

It’s nail biting ‘will it, won’t it’? Was it lassie saying is it now past the point of tits up??

 

maybe, maybe not. 

Turn it in

[kold weather]

ICON and ARPEGE move inline with what the 00z ECM showed which had quite a bit less snow for the western areas in particular of this region. Just a dusting for areas away from EA and Kent on all three of those runs for Sunday.

Still plenty of time after Sunday even if that does bust up for lots of showers to come in, so no point becoming overly concerned about it yet.

[kold weather]

2 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Here is 12z UKV , Euro 4 out soon I think 

I'd guess if ICON was higher resolution thats exactly how it would look for the same time.

Main area of precip for EA and Kent, but with patchy and weaker stuff further west.

 

[winterfreak]

1 minute ago, tight isobar said:

Turn it in

Lol, we’re known for world class snatching defeat from the jaws of victory!!!

Edited February 5, 2021 by winterfreak