South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards

[kold weather]

Time for a blast from the past. I'm sure many of you have heard me talk about the 1-2nd December 2010 event and how I'm getting real flashbacks of that set-up.

Here is the 00z November 30th 2010 GFS run. Note this is the same timeframe out to the event as this chart was:

Note the precip shield over Kent and extending through to Sussex.

This area led to an early warning of about 2-5cms for Sussex, with higher totals for Kent forecasted.

In reality, that whole area ended up about 100 miles west and about 50 miles further north. This led to large snowfalls further west and also further north.

This ended up giving large snow amounts even further west. For example Kenley ended up with 37cms of snow level. I'd have expected maybe 1-2cms in Chichester based on that run. Ended up with about 20cms...

So thats why we need to keep a close eye on this set-up, and not to assume the models are 100% accurate, even at this stage. There is (as we also saw last weekend) significant movement still possible at this stage.

 

Edited February 5, 2021 by kold weather

[pages]

48 minutes ago, Surrey said:

Its crazy how much when I look more at the EURO4 model how close the met office warnings are to its 06z run.. I know @Tim Bland mentioned it earlier but its basically a direct copy of the areas with highest accumulated snow from the EURO4 model.

I have looked through all the other high res runs this morning from the crappy NNM to the mighty ICON but nothing matches up better than the EURO 4  to the warnings

 

Tried to scale it up a bit 

 

 

 

I expect Met will, redraw warning zone tomorrow morning after the 6z and move the tick box in there matrix up a row to more likely then after tomorrow 18z draw a smaller red zone within the amber zone.

[alexisj9]

10 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

Pal after nightfall tomorrow @saturday pm.. all precipitation @region wide will be snow!!.. the overheads couldn’t be more ripe if we tried.. @dews @bulbs @850s.... this is a polar continental pass... =white... not wet .. trust me on this!!@rapid cooling evaporators... any snow falling will be of powdery dendrite variaty and will stick like s@@t to a blanket

Oh no, not the wrong/right type of snow again.

[tight isobar]

1 minute ago, alexisj9 said:

Oh no, not the wrong/right type of snow again.

That old-chestnut aye!!

[alexisj9]

1 minute ago, tight isobar said:

That old-chestnut aye!!

Sorry couldn't resist, I just hope the trains aren't all over the news again. I'm just gonna sit back look out of my window and enjoy.

[kold weather]

11 minutes ago, Ian Docwra said:

Yes the air might just be cold enough at better altitude, but the ground is very warm for the time of year.   We are located such that we are almost always shielded from Kentish and Thames streamers, though, so my expectation is for thin slush.  Nothing to stop me walking up Box Hill down the road for something a tad colder though!

Some parts of the US literally go from 20-25c to 0c and snowfall in a matter of hours, and it settles with soil profile far warmer than anything we have at the moment. As long as the air is cold enough it will snap back easily enough. The problem is usually we get quite a modified lower level which means surface temperatures stay around 1-2c. 

This time the air coming in behind the front is very cold at the lowest levels due to the snow fields in Germany. It'll almost certainly go subzero even during the daytime, especially if your slightly higher elevation.

Once the air is in, its going to be cold enough to settle, easily cold enough for that...

And the ground will cool very rapidly once it freezes on either Saturday night or Sunday (indeed it might do it during the a=daytime given the cold advection. Should be some frozen lakes and bodies of water by mid week which will cool to see!

[nanu]

1 minute ago, tight isobar said:

That old-chestnut aye!!

Ohh i work at a train station, i could make those announcements that will go down in history.  like  " the train coming into platform 2 will slide through the station and wont stop.."  i actually witnessed that few sundays back, so does happen!

[smarklew]

Just popping in to say hello, been following all week but after the other day’s disappointment I didn’t want to get my hopes up too soon. Very exciting few days coming up, looking forward to enjoying it with you all. 

[Ian Docwra]

I see the BBC Weather SE summary has snow showers for the SE followed by flurries during the week.  However, taking Southend as an example, they show heavy continuous snow for Sunday morning, not showers.  This is one reason for my deepening distrust of the BBC's weather output (Meteo) - there are far too many inconsistencies within their own output.  Even if their overall model is wrong, at least get the public output from that model right!

[saintkip]

22 minutes ago, tomp456 said:

Tragic that I live on the coast! Will miss most or all of the snow!

No you won’t, it will snow

[Marie]

Ok ,covid vaccine done which I’m really pleased about now to chill out for the weekend with a few drinkies and watch the snow fall on Sunday sledges at the ready guys 

[80sWeather]

1 hour ago, Timmytour said:

I think that was the "wrong type of snow" event

Remember the news said it was so powdery that it got inside the electrical circuits of the trains and caused problems.

[Southender]

2 minutes ago, Ian Docwra said:

I see the BBC Weather SE summary has snow showers for the SE followed by flurries during the week.  However, taking Southend as an example, they show heavy continuous snow for Sunday morning, not showers.  This is one reason for my deepening distrust of the BBC's weather output (Meteo) - there are far too many inconsistencies within their own output.  Even if their overall model is wrong, at least get the public output from that model right!

That’s me screwed then

Edited February 5, 2021 by Southender

[Stu_London]

7 minutes ago, alexisj9 said:

Sorry couldn't resist, I just hope the trains aren't all over the news again. I'm just gonna sit back look out of my window and enjoy.

no one using the trains any more - so I suspect it will be a non-story this time

[HammerJack]

The Met O video forecast from Friday afternoon (on YouTube) looks very good for our region

[nanu]

Just now, Stu_London said:

no one using the trains any more - so I suspect it will be a non-story this time

Huh i wish, travelled by train to work Tuesday morning and was standing room only on it,, bosses are still telling there staff to come into work with some firms!

[lassie23]

6 minutes ago, Marie said:

Ok ,covid vaccine done which I’m really pleased about now to chill out for the weekend with a few drinkies and watch the snow fall on Sunday sledges at the ready guys 

You must be a front line worker, you don't look over 75 to me 

[HammerJack]

26 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

Pal after nightfall tomorrow @saturday pm.. all precipitation @region wide will be snow!!.. the overheads couldn’t be more ripe if we tried.. @dews @bulbs @850s.... this is a polar continental pass... =white... not wet .. trust me on this!!@rapid cooling evaporators... any snow falling will be of powdery dendrite variaty and will stick like s@@t to a blanket

Are you excited by any chance

[Stu_London]

Just now, nanu said:

Huh i wish, travelled by train to work Tuesday morning and was standing room only on it,, bosses are still telling there staff to come into work with some firms!

Unlucky - are there less trains now in response to fewer commuters. 

[PLANET THANET]

12 minutes ago, alexisj9 said:

Oh no, not the wrong/right type of snow again.

I worked on the railway for thirty nine years and yes , we can have the wrong type of snow. Basically the dry powdery stuff when it happens blows up under the trains and in to the traction motors shorting them out where as the type we usually have (the wet claggy type ) does stay on the ground more and not get blown around

[Radiating Dendrite]

Just now, Marie said:

Ok ,covid vaccine done which I’m really pleased about now to chill out for the weekend with a few drinkies and watch the snow fall on Sunday sledges at the ready guys 

Have you got any superpowers yet??

Must be a weight off your mind having had it done.

[Marie]

1 minute ago, lassie23 said:

You must be a front line worker, you don't look over 75 to me 

Ha ha , I’m 44 and I work in a special needs school with extremely clinically vulnerable kids

[lassie23]

Have we gone beyond the tights up zone, is this actually going to happen?

[BarnetBlizzard]

quite a big movement south east on the Icon

[danm]