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South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards


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Posted
  • Location: Tottenham, N London
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snowy winters and hot, dry summers
  • Location: Tottenham, N London
    2 minutes ago, Surrey said:

    Its crazy how much when I look more at the EURO4 model how close the met office warnings are to its 06z run.. I know @Tim Bland mentioned it earlier but its basically a direct copy of the areas with highest accumulated snow from the EURO4 model.

    I have looked through all the other high res runs this morning from the crappy NNM to the mighty ICON but nothing matches up better than the EURO 4  to the warnings

    426056265_EURO4totals.thumb.gif.ec8049fe726833fe37e57932019bc516.gif

     

    Tried to scale it up a bit 

     

    838406454_biggerEURO4.thumb.png.847a80932cab40d765ea48b1dfbee915.png

     

     

    There's a depressing snow hole right over London there! Suspect it's wrong as conditions are right for settling snow.

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    I suppose not really weather related but I just wanted to say thank you all so much.  I've really really enjoyed following the posts today.  I am awaiting Open Heart Surgery sometime this year and you

    Oh my f**king god. How many times does it need saying? 1. The amber doesn't expire until tomorrow midday 2. Widespread heavy showers & streamers are going to follow later, tonight,

    Evening. Here's my estimated #snow depths for England and Wales that I expect until noon on Monday, using a blend of high resolution models.

    Posted Images

    Posted
  • Location: Thorpe Surrey (About 1 mile from Thorpe park)
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, more snow and even more snow..Oh and I love a good old Thunderstorm
  • Location: Thorpe Surrey (About 1 mile from Thorpe park)
    Just now, tight isobar said:

    Our region fully in the firing line.. as expected via easterly incursion... some crazy weather imminent 👊👊👊👊

    ramp.thumb.jpg.ac28dfe9f892e43e47c0a17feba4bd82.jpg

     

    Kent Tuesday...

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    Posted
  • Location: Thorpe Surrey (About 1 mile from Thorpe park)
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, more snow and even more snow..Oh and I love a good old Thunderstorm
  • Location: Thorpe Surrey (About 1 mile from Thorpe park)
    Just now, Stabilo19 said:

    There's a depressing snow hole right over London there! Suspect it's wrong as conditions are right for settling snow.

    EURO4 has UHI taken into account I believe.. pretty good with it.. 

    Agree though, wouldn't pay to much attention to that black hole idea.. it wont be like that .. its because of the grid scale to it works on as well I assume.. 

     

    Any snowfall charts that are posted reminder to take huge 25kg bags of salt with them. They aint great half the time 

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    Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough

    Lovely afternoon here with just some patchy cloud. Second morning in a row where fog rolled in for a while. Tomorrow sees near average maxima but probably falling through the afternoon and becoming quite raw as the easterly wind starts to take hold.

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    Posted
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and Thundery, Cold and Snowy
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
    8 minutes ago, Ben M said:

    Well somebody's getting fired...BBC South East weather just now showed the Look East forecast instead lol the newsreader was like "Sorry, that was the wrong weather" - it's similar enough to the SE patch though I guess 🤣

    Poor isn’t it. Just watched a German forecast. Looks like they get a proper detailed forecast, even going into technical analysis, and boy are they going to get hit hard, round the Ruhr valley, Cologne area etc!! Here, we just tend to get a quick skim over and generalisation. A pale shadow in comparison! 

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    Posted
  • Location: Larkfield
  • Location: Larkfield

    Well living in larkfield and in a north easterly direction is blue bell hill so we get a bit shielded .  But I’d say I’d be looking at getting 5 to 10cm in this set up 

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    Posted
  • Location: Home: Chingford, London (NE). Work: London (Central)
  • Location: Home: Chingford, London (NE). Work: London (Central)
    blank.jpg
    BLOG.METOFFICE.GOV.UK

    How times change. This time last year, we were in the early days of a month which went on to become the wettest February for the UK in a series stretching back to 1862. Storms Ciara, Dennis and Jor…

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Romford, Essex
  • Location: Romford, Essex

    Apologies if this has been shared before, but it is crazy to think that this is almost to the hour exactly 30 years ago regarding the 1991 monster easterly. I remember it well. Blizzard conditions for hours on end and bitterly cold. Me and some friends were on our way to South Weald to go sledging and we helped clear the A12 slip road to the M25 as cars couldn't get up it. Hoping for a repeat over the next few days. Enjoy this forecast if you haven't seen it... 

     

     

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    Posted
  • Location: St rads Dover
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, T Storms.
  • Location: St rads Dover
    44 minutes ago, Nick F said:

    I suspect it's a combination of wind convergence between NE winds and SE winds and vorticity wrapping around the low on near continent creating lift of moist air rather than the fronts generating the continuous snow. 

    Wind charts below at different levels

    GFSOPUK00_72_28.thumb.png.488410fecb85bdb0c1c2b2b61a127a29.pngGFSOPUK00_72_27.thumb.png.52e5e8b9d693258d2971cd4b90dadbf8.pngGFSOPUK00_72_29.thumb.png.331f8d02fe0078009c9ee65bc2fd0f55.png

    Ooh that looks quite interesting to be fair.

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    Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(south east england)
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(south east england)
    4 minutes ago, Surrey said:

    ramp.thumb.jpg.ac28dfe9f892e43e47c0a17feba4bd82.jpg

     

    Kent Tuesday...

    Tbh that’s becoming a distinct possibility... almost lake effect Kent/Essex/east anglia...  ps-pay no attention to precipitation models and probable depth charts until tomorrow @24hrs out....everyone in the region will see snow over the nxt 3/4 days... we’ll deal with jackpot geographicals tomorrow 🤘👊👊[email protected] real incoming!!!👌

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    Posted
  • Location: Chessington, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Hot and Sunny but not opressive
  • Location: Chessington, Surrey
    12 minutes ago, jamesgold said:

    Well BBC London mentioned significant snow along the Thames. Wasn’t shown on graphics but clearly streamers are in the thinking

    Yep , 1st time I’ve heard it mentioned on a forecast .

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    Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
    11 minutes ago, Surrey said:

    Its crazy how much when I look more at the EURO4 model how close the met office warnings are to its 06z run.. I know @Tim Bland mentioned it earlier but its basically a direct copy of the areas with highest accumulated snow from the EURO4 model.

    I have looked through all the other high res runs this morning from the crappy NNM to the mighty ICON but nothing matches up better than the EURO 4  to the warnings

    426056265_EURO4totals.thumb.gif.ec8049fe726833fe37e57932019bc516.gif

     

    Tried to scale it up a bit 

     

    838406454_biggerEURO4.thumb.png.847a80932cab40d765ea48b1dfbee915.png

     

     

    When Meto had the BBC contract they would always use the Euro4 or NAE as it was known then. It’s still their go to model along with UKV so not surprising. BBC graphics are almost always an old ECM run. Meto website automated forecasts are from the UKMO so it’s worth checking them to see the UKMO run in more detail. If you want to see the ECM in detail for your location download Weather Pro by Meteogroup (free for 7 day forecasts and basic radar 

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    Posted
  • Location: Windsor
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and cold
  • Location: Windsor
    6 minutes ago, Lampostwatcher said:

    Metoffice

    Have got me down for 38 hours of light snow 

    😁

    Probably manage a cm. 😐

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    Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

    The latest met office warning looks fine, if a little on the small side.

    However I don't blame them for keeping a relatively small area as there is far too much uncertainty about how far inland things will dig, etc.

    Also whilst a streamer does look possible (I think @TomSE12 is right that there will be both streamers setting at different points) its still not a certainty and so you can't yet justify an amber warning to extend those zones along the Estuary or deeper into Kent. Those will have to come either closer to the time or as they setup.

     

     

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    Posted
  • Location: HARROW WEALD NORTH WEST LONDON
  • Location: HARROW WEALD NORTH WEST LONDON
    Just now, Spraggyy said:

    Got 6 hours of heavy snow then 57 hours of light snow up until Wednesday night for my MetO forecast 

    😨

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    Posted
  • Location: St rads Dover
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, T Storms.
  • Location: St rads Dover
    21 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

    Fully expect an extension of amber warnings across large swathe of the region.. as the easterly inflow ebbs in and the rolling convection machine ramps up massively.. as illustrated via the 00z ecm @ 850hpas @850vents @500 geo pot!... impactual organised snow bands... and persistent snow showers region wide.. sweet spots well in excess of 10/15 cms ground accumulation....👊👊👊.... edit.. I hope that was straight forward =understood by some!!!🤔🙄🙄🙄🙄😛

    2CC27A95-82A0-4C8F-880F-664F3B66CF34.png

    B4AC121C-978F-42C1-A3E3-6CC8B061C6E5.png

    BE9D9E62-7372-4438-B00D-A2EB8CB70728.png

    BB55C41D-8551-473D-9A3A-E719795394C5.png

    88FEA541-1F70-46A9-97CD-0C4800AEB116.png

    Ooh 850 improvements nice.

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    Posted
  • Location: Chessington, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Hot and Sunny but not opressive
  • Location: Chessington, Surrey

    Has anyone noticed the further warnings that go out until Wednesday now . That’s on a daily basis too 😊

    550112DC-B741-4AEE-8720-179E23B84355.png

    E73E9891-A519-4700-BE3E-2FEBF51BC7CE.png

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    Posted
  • Location: NW London
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms
  • Location: NW London
    4 minutes ago, Lampostwatcher said:

    Metoffice

    Have got me down for 38 hours of light snow 

    😁

    1 minute ago, alexisj9 said:

    Ooh 850 improvements nice.

     

    How can the 850s be so much lower without the front moving further south? 

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    Posted
  • Location: Southend-On-Sea, South East Essex.
  • Location: Southend-On-Sea, South East Essex.

    So I’ve located my sledge in the garage 🛷 very dusty as you would expect after 3 years of being a spiders home. I’m refusing to get it out and hose it down until tomorrow afternoon as I just know I’ll jinx it for the region. Tell me I’m not the only stupidly superstitious mug in here?...

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    Posted
  • Location: Leicester
  • Location: Leicester
    6 minutes ago, kold weather said:

    The latest met office warning looks fine, if a little on the small side.

    However I don't blame them for keeping a relatively small area as there is far too much uncertainty about how far inland things will dig, etc.

    Also whilst a streamer does look possible (I think @TomSE12 is right that there will be both streamers setting at different points) its still not a certainty and so you can't yet justify an amber warning to extend those zones along the Estuary or deeper into Kent. Those will have to come either closer to the time or as they setup.

     

     

    Any news on 06z ecm for the wider uk?!!

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    Posted
  • Location: SE London
  • Location: SE London
    32 minutes ago, Southender said:

    Some random Swiss model has churned that out. Wouldn’t take much notice. Lovely to look at though if you’re under the purple 🤣

    there are some really nice looking 'Swiss models' on google images 😄 

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    Posted
  • Location: SE,London (Catford)
  • Location: SE,London (Catford)
    3 minutes ago, Southender said:

    So I’ve located my sledge in the garage 🛷 very dusty as you would expect after 3 years of being a spiders home. I’m refusing to get it out and hose it down until tomorrow afternoon as I just know I’ll jinx it for the region. Tell me I’m not the only stupidly superstitious mug in here?...

    Thats it.. its jinxed!!  Somebody has dug a sledge out to dust down.. its all gonna rain now 😆  Leave it there please

    Edited by nanu
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