South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards

[Scott Ingham]

1 minute ago, sukayuonsensnow said:

Last few snow events they've really under forecast the snow amounts even at short range for me in NE Hampshire.

31st January 2019/1st February 2019 - 3-7cm - though that was a little lower, the extra 4-6in the next day was a complete surprise for many Central Southern areas within a zone between the A37, M4, M25, M3 and A303. A very conservative snow forecast that ended up being a much bigger event.

24th January 2021 - Was only expected to get a few cm at best, but as the band of heavy snow started to pivot, it became heavy and some got 3in of snow within 90-120 minutes.

It really depends on how quickly the rain turns to snow Saturday night, how quickly the snow settles, and who gets the heaviest snow for the longest (24th January a very localised area near Derby got lucky).

I wouldn't be surprised if 40cm fell somewhere, probably a higher part of the North Downs to the S/SE of London, or the Chilterns (more so near the M1). Probably not far off in Amsterdam across the channel, but for London a few inches of lying snow by Monday is probably a good guess.

Yeah chilterns would be my best bet for any extreme amounts.

Just to bring some realism.

Chances are Nicks 15-20cms is close to the real mark over 95% of this area

[kold weather]

Well the 18z ARPEGE ensembles are in and...

Good luck picking a solution based on that set of options. Even Sunday morning is highly uncertain, we have options from basically nothing for ALL, through to a very large 15-20cms fall for all.

Beyond that higher confidence of banding convection setting up, and probably a streamer or two as well in the usual places.

Also interestingly the runs that are stronger with the frontal system are also much snowier afterwards with regards to streamers, etc. Something to think about...

[sukayuonsensnow]

3 minutes ago, Scott Ingham said:

Yeah chilterns would be my best bet for any extreme amounts.

Just to bring some realism.

Chances are Nicks 15-20cms is close to the real mark over 95% of this area

That's a good guess. Need to keep an eye on Saturday night, if precipitation is heavy and evaporative cooling speeds up the process of the rain turning to snow that may make a big difference for many of us.

[dallas]

8 minutes ago, gooner265 said:

That must have been 87 , remember that well , I was in Darenth then , was totally cut off for days.

2009/10 and 2010/11 were pretty tasty in Greenhithe

[Maidstone marginal]

 

2 minutes ago, kold weather said:

Well the 18z ARPEGE ensembles are in and...

Good luck picking a solution based on that set of options. Even Sunday morning is highly uncertain, we have options from basically nothing for ALL, through to a very large 15-20cms fall for all.

Beyond that higher confidence of banding convection setting up, and probably a streamer or two as well in the usual places.

Also interestingly the runs that are stronger with the frontal system are also much snowier afterwards with regards to streamers, etc. Something to think about...

Is low level west still in the game? Or is it the hills behind folkestone like usual?

[Stu_London]

When do we think whatever falls out of the sky will be largely settling snow based on the latest models?

I would plump for something between midnight Saturday and 3am Sunday - perhaps a little earlier for the north of the region.

[BLS]

1 hour ago, Neilsouth said:

Weather for the Week Ahead - BBC Weather

WWW.BBC.CO.UK

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The weather is about to turn much colder for many parts of the UK, with a biting wind and potentially disruptive snowfall.

 

Looking at that as some other models I think EA will see the best of the snow fall..... I do worry for Kent as it might be rather light and could only give a dusting unless it come further south a little but I might be wrong, hopefully we will get showers coming in off the coast Monday and Tuesday similar to the NE of England 

[BLS]

1 minute ago, Stu_London said:

When do we think whatever falls out of the sky will be largely settling snow based on the latest models?

I would plump for something between midnight Saturday and 3am Sunday - perhaps a little earlier for the north of the region.

EA I reckon before midnight London and Kent 1am-3am it will change to snow would be my guess

[Maidstone marginal]

1 minute ago, Spraggyy said:

EA I reckon before midnight London and Kent 1am-3am it will change to snow would be my guess

The north downs between folkestone and Maidstone will get spanked. That's only my prediction. 

[Nick L]

12 minutes ago, Scott Ingham said:

Yeah chilterns would be my best bet for any extreme amounts.

Just to bring some realism.

Chances are Nicks 15-20cms is close to the real mark over 95% of this area

Probably too far west in the Chilterns. Our office is slap bang in the middle of them, we'll probably end up around 5cm, maybe closer to 10 if we're lucky. Norfolk will get pasted.

[Nick L]

6 minutes ago, Stu_London said:

When do we think whatever falls out of the sky will be largely settling snow based on the latest models?

I would plump for something between midnight Saturday and 3am Sunday - perhaps a little earlier for the north of the region.

Agreed. Will be a very quick transition.

[Nick L]

18z is sadly very underwhelming for western parts of our region. Even my 5cm forecast above would be on shaky ground.

Best chances for central southern England and more western members of this thread would be if we can get some frontal action later in the week. This morning's EC showed an extreme example of what could happen in a perfect scenario and certainly would deliver 30cm+! Showers just won't cut the mustard around these parts. 

My partner is from Norfolk, she's wishing she was allowed to go home!

Edited February 5, 2021 by Nick L

[lassie23]

31 minutes ago, Stu_London said:

Looks like a solid 5 day event from midnight on Saturday (which is +48 hours now - surely it can't go wrong from here).

Snow distribution to be resolved.

GFS 18z in FI has several dry days with sunshine and temps of 13C-15C - probably would scrape a 16 or 17C in favoured spots given the set up.

That would be my second choice as the days get longer into the second half of Feb

 

too early for spring lol

[Snowman.]

3 minutes ago, Nick L said:

18z is sadly very underwhelming for western parts of our region. Even my 5cm forecast above would be on shaky ground.

Best chances for central southern England and more western members of this thread would be if we can get some frontal action later in the week. This morning's EC showed an extreme example of what could happen in a perfect scenario and certainly would deliver 30cm+! Showers just won't cut the mustard around these parts. 

My partner is from Norfolk, she's wishing she was allowed to go home!

Hi Nick,

Seeing as this is the regional I can ask this question, chances on those in Essex getting something decent?

[Nick L]

Just now, Snowman. said:

Hi Nick,

Seeing as this is the regional I can ask this question, chances on those in Essex getting something decent?

I'd prefer to be where you are than where I am, that's for certain! Being on the coast won't make much difference in terms of making it marginal as we're in proper cold. 5-10cm through the course of Sunday in Essex, and then continuous snow showers through Monday and Tuesday. Won't be quite as impressive as further north into Norfolk and Suffolk, but cumulatively 15-20cm in Essex would be a good ballpark figure. Drifts could be impressive.

[sukayuonsensnow]

5 minutes ago, Nick L said:

Probably too far west in the Chilterns. Our office is slap bang in the middle of them, we'll probably end up around 5cm, maybe closer to 10 if we're lucky. Norfolk will get pasted.

Depends where heavier snow is and how long it stays there. I was more specific and said the Chilterns nearer to the M1, eg., Berkhamsted, Tring, Dunstable, Whipsnade, and other nearby villages to the west/southwest of Luton and northwest of Hemel Hempstead.

8-15cm for the Aylesbury area? (more over the hills).

Unless the snow is really light and doesn't settle too quickly 5cm seems conservative imo.

[kold weather]

11 minutes ago, Nick L said:

18z is sadly very underwhelming for western parts of our region. Even my 5cm forecast above would be on shaky ground.

Best chances for central southern England and more western members of this thread would be if we can get some frontal action later in the week. This morning's EC showed an extreme example of what could happen in a perfect scenario and certainly would deliver 30cm+! Showers just won't cut the mustard around these parts. 

My partner is from Norfolk, she's wishing she was allowed to go home!

Honestly the models are all over the place, I've not seen any real consistency in any of the ensembles (GFS, GEM, ECM, ARPEGE) nor any of the operationals either upto this point, they keep shifting between a stronger system and a weaker system on a regular basis. For now somewhere in the middle sounds reasonable (which I think your 5cms ballpark is sensible).

Agreed about the slider situation. Thats going to be a real tough call, as the air is going to be legitimately very cold, borderline severe with the wind chill IMO for a time maybe on Wednesday-Thursday (if it holds long enough) and any front that tries to come in ahead of any switch to a true SW is going to turn to snow instantly with the lower levels so cold. The only unknown is whether the fronts even make it all that far east in such a situation. I might just about get away with it here, I was right on the borders of the heavy stuff storm Emma gave for example, but each situation is different.

As for Sunday, I can't get put of my head what happened in rather similar situation on 1-2nd December 2010, that low ended up getting much further west and stronger than forecasted and the models messed that one up badly.

Its really the only analog I've got at the moment for this type of situation, and even thats not really all that useful of one in fairness!

PS- also I think there are pretty strong indicators for streamers setting up, even the globals are hinting at them which is normally a pretty strong signal. Obviously the totals will be alot more hit and miss, but its a legitimate way for those south of the Thames further west to get involved in some bigger falls of snow.

Edited February 5, 2021 by kold weather

[londonblizzard]

Hi Nick,

What chances do you think there are of a south western correction from what the models are currently showing? I'm guessing this would bring the heavier precip region for Norfolk more towards London?

[Nick L]

1 minute ago, londonblizzard said:

Hi Nick,

What chances do you think there are of a south western correction from what the models are currently showing? I'm guessing this would bring the heavier precip region for Norfolk more towards London?

It has been toyed with. EC has successively backed off from it though, a trend we don't want! GFS 18z would be a belter though and would certainly make my 5cm prediction too low. Sadly, it's GFS haha.

In NE London though you'll be in a great position for snow showers later on Sunday and the next couple of days.

[Snowman.]

6 minutes ago, Nick L said:

I'd prefer to be where you are than where I am, that's for certain! Being on the coast won't make much difference in terms of making it marginal as we're in proper cold. 5-10cm through the course of Sunday in Essex, and then continuous snow showers through Monday and Tuesday. Won't be quite as impressive as further north into Norfolk and Suffolk, but cumulatively 15-20cm in Essex would be a good ballpark figure. Drifts could be impressive.

Thanks nick. Very informative and keeps my expectations in check.

[Maidstone marginal]

It's all about Luton and places north. Onwards and upwards 

[Scott Ingham]

21 minutes ago, Nick L said:

Probably too far west in the Chilterns. Our office is slap bang in the middle of them, we'll probably end up around 5cm, maybe closer to 10 if we're lucky. Norfolk will get pasted.

Having viewed the 18z i may tend to agree if this is the path to go down.

My basis for this area was for all snow from much earlier due to altitude saturday night sunday morning topped up by showers but i agree if this doesnt correct west then Norfolk for sure

[Daniel*]

Latest from UKV has frontal band much further NW which did appear to be extremely isolated with being so SE. It’s interesting that convection could also enhance snowfall it’s evident on this run through Thames Estuary.

[Snowman.]

2 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

Latest from UKV has frontal band much further NW which did appear to be extremely isolated with being so SE. It’s interesting that convection could also enhance snowfall it’s evident on this run through Thames Estuary.

Got me foaming at the mouth here.

UKV is very conservative as well all know so nice to see this!

[Nick L]

00z UKV rolling now...