South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

1 hour ago, onepingonly said:

 They are looking toward the middle of next week, next few days still look good. Even next week it such an unusual system for the models to deal with it's still up for grabs. Now's the time to enjoy the next few days unless model watching is really your thing.

That’s the point of that thread, surely?

I would rather a peek into the relevant regional thread for banter about the most immediate and pressing weather situations - but do like to peruse the MOD from time to time for a more general view into FI...

I agree it’s a bit like worrying where to go the NYE after next (ie. pointless with so much uncertainty) but it’s kind of fun / keeps them off the streets...

Fine with me

 

[Chiltern_Blizzard]

1 minute ago, Djdazzle said:

That was always expected though I think. These LP systems nearly always trend south as you approach the event.

Yet again, people in this thread fretting over precipitation charts!

No fret from me. Just saying what I see. And trying to be useful. 

[Chiltern_Blizzard]

1 minute ago, kold weather said:

Regardless of what happens the flow looks good beyond Sunday, especially Monday afternoon-Tusday afternoon.

Also, its worth noting the models really are all over the place at the moment. Just as many give a good event to all the region as don't.

Probably a balance between not overhyping the good runs but not getting overly attached to the doom runs either.

As I said before, these events can lead to surprises, both good and bad.

As I said earlier, the 1-2nd Dec 2010 event is not dissimilar to what is forecasted here, and that also only forecasted to give small amounts further west, forecasted 1-3cms in Chichester. I ended up with about 20-22cms!

Thanks. Great post

[Djdazzle]

1 minute ago, Chiltern_Blizzard said:

No fret from me. Just saying what I see. And trying to be useful. 

The fretting bit wasn't aimed at you.

[eddie1]

Starting to get the feeling this is going to be a bust for me, been excited all week get to 2 days before and once again looks like I may miss out 

[onepingonly]

9 minutes ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

That’s the point of that thread, surely?

 

Absolutely...I just meant if we forget to look out of the window too we will miss the snow 

[Matty88]

Some (not all) charts trending the precipitation south and east on Sunday now but I still don’t think it’ll end up that way... at least I hope it doesn’t. GFS still showing good optimism for much of EA and the midlands. Looking at the direction of travel I’m still optimistic it’ll not turn into a Kent clipper... hopefully the upcoming charts can reinforce the wider risk rather than reduce

[abovefreezing]

34 minutes ago, alexisj9 said:

They must have decided it's nailed on then, that good enough for me 

That's it! Jinxed! As soon as someone says, "Nailed on", you just know ...

[Matty88]

16 minutes ago, Chiltern_Blizzard said:

I get a feeling sundays event is tracking much further south and east. Yesterday it was far further north and west (with most of EA over into northern home counties) but today I see it is tracking lower and I think by end of tomorrow the sweet spot may be east Sussex Nd Kent and areas of Suffolk.

Shame for those north and west of London

The only charts predicting that are the ones that have been atrociously wrong so far this winter, that should give us enough hope !! GFS will be the best bet for this IMO... 

[Sarahgreatchart]

Say the models come off / or if they don’t ... could anyone advise which night Im most likely to get least sleep checking out the window... just so I can plan my compensatory 8 hours

My plan is if it happens to wake 5yr old twins up regardless of time - some people think it’s cruel I think it’s what memories are made of

 

 got to go essential shopping for hot chocolate condiments !!

 

 thank you ! 

ashford kent 

[Matty J]

The ICON has shifted the low further south again, which tbh is now becoming a major worry. Aware that model isn’t one of the main players but it can’t be ignored.

We see on the cusp now, surely we’re not going to be left disappointed again

Over to the GFS pub run and lets hope that doesn’t shift it south!

[snowrye]

26 minutes ago, Tom Jarvis said:

Dam 

Yes 528 I hope

[Chiltern_Blizzard]

2 minutes ago, Matty88 said:

The only charts predicting that are the ones that have been atrociously wrong so far this winter, that should give us enough hope !! GFS will be the best bet for this IMO... 

Let's see. The last snow event a few weekends back the Harmonie nailed it pretty much...(kept it north and east) where as Icon dropped it south. 

Excited to see where this goes tomorrow.

[Maidstone marginal]

3 minutes ago, Sarahgreatchart said:

Say the models come off / or if they don’t ... could anyone advise which night Im most likely to get least sleep checking out the window... just so I can plan my compensatory 8 hours

My plan is if it happens to wake 5yr old twins up regardless of time - some people think it’s cruel I think it’s what memories are made of

 

 got to go essential shopping for hot chocolate condiments !!

 

 thank you ! 

ashford kent 

Saturday night and early Sunday maybe but who knows

[jamesgold]

ECM did pretty well with lows in the cold spell 2 weeks ago, I’m still quite interested in that

[Flaked Queen]

Well I’m watching the rain from my dining room with my earphones in and my cup of coffee ️ wishing I was watching snow fall ️

[Tom Jarvis]

Nice improvement on the gfs18z gets rid of the less cold uppers and replaces them with -8 

[MagicBat]

7 minutes ago, Snowflake Queen said:

Well I’m watching the rain from my dining room with my earphones in and my cup of coffee ️ wishing I was watching snow fall ️

Wow, really heavy rain! Not great for any flood risk areas in the Herts/ Essex areas. Yes if only it was snow!

[Methuselah]

5 minutes ago, Snowflake Queen said:

Well I’m watching the rain from my dining room with my earphones in and my cup of coffee ️ wishing I was watching snow fall ️

Sunday morning, coming down: 

 

[Tom Jarvis]

Looks like east anglia is getting buried on this run. Might need to spit the treads as the disparity between what east Anglia gets and Kent and Sussex is quite large 

[sunnijim]

Could be looking at our best chance on the Sussex coast to build up some sort of accumulation on Sunday.

The snow showers progged from Monday might benefit those further North,or if the flow is a Northeaster areas from Hastings East could strike gold.

Can be a real struggle to get a decent snowfall in Brighton.

Edited February 4, 2021 by sunnijim

[SLEETY]

no mention of rain now in latest met office update from alex,threat of heavy snow Sunday he said.

 

 

[Flaked Queen]

2 minutes ago, MagicBat said:

Wow, really heavy rain! Not great for any flood risk areas in the Herts/ Essex areas. Yes if only it was snow!

Is very heavy yes ... but it’s not cold we’ll I do have my fluffy dressing gown on having a cheeky fag out the window

[lassie23]

1 minute ago, Tom Jarvis said:

Looks like east anglia is getting buried on this run. Might need to spit the treads as the disparity between what east Anglia gets and Kent and Sussex is quite large 

Is that a dog napping on you lol

[lassie23]

1 minute ago, Snowflake Queen said:

Is very heavy yes ... but it’s not cold we’ll I do have my fluffy dressing gown on having a cheeky fag out the window

I went out in it, got soaked, the downpour hit me by surprise

Edited February 4, 2021 by lassie23