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South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards


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Posted
  • Location: Nr Newmarket Suffolk
  • Location: Nr Newmarket Suffolk

    Tight isobars it’s great to see you. I was wondering where you were as I hadn’t seen your posts recently. I very rarely post, but I always lurk and really enjoy your take on things

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    Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(south east england)
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(south east england)
    2 minutes ago, Jason H said:

    Good to see you in here @tight isobar. Look forwards to your unique takes on things.

    Ya won’t fella.. I eject from in ere... keyboard snakes 🐍 and irrelevants!!

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    Posted
  • Location: Bramley, Surrey
  • Location: Bramley, Surrey
    32 minutes ago, D.V.R said:

    This post was removed

    I am normally very quiet, but is this a necessary comment? Is it helpful, encouraging or kind in any way shape or form? Sorry, but this kind of comment is uncalled for!

    Edited by Blessed Weather
    Comment in quote box removed
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    Posted
  • Location: Fakenham
  • Weather Preferences: Copious amounts of snow and ice days
  • Location: Fakenham

    I'm concerned here in North Norfolk that we are going to miss out apart from some showers if we are lucky. Looks like we will be too far North

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    Posted
  • Location: Bexleyheath (south), Kent
  • Location: Bexleyheath (south), Kent
    2 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

    Ya won’t fella.. I eject from in ere... keyboard snakes 🐍 and irrelevants!!

    That's a shame. I honestly do like your take on things. Please reconsider.

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    Posted
  • Location: Surrey Hills - Holmbury St Mary 184asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and Thunder
  • Location: Surrey Hills - Holmbury St Mary 184asl
    25 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

    Jumped in ere coz if I post this in mod thread there will be meltdowns... via other region members!..     anyway in a nutshell our quadrant @@south east-east anglia are modelled in some data as mild sector geographical... I’ll illustrate why this is an evolutionary trait that is highly likely miss-modelled at this juncture..(later) and in such infer =incursion.. we’ll likely be the firing line points of this incoming flow..... some  notable [email protected] incoming!!!!!!

    Love reading your posts @tight isobar... they do make perfect sense when read a couple of times!

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    Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough

    Hopefully we can see a solution that brings snow from Lincolnshire down to around the Southampton area and then everyone south and east of there. Not out of the realms of possibility I guess. Hopefully the later Fax charts for day 4/5 will reveal some decent disturbances to bring heavier snow showers.

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    Posted
  • Location: Diss, South Norfolk
  • Location: Diss, South Norfolk

    Looks to me like another Kent clipper, as usual, heading more south on each run.  So maybe a few snow flurries in the east before the low pulls away, then dry unless living north of the wash. Then probably milder later in the week.  Way over hyped on the mod thread, as usual.

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    Posted
  • Location: Huntingdon Cambridgeshire 45ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow - Frost - A beach in the Med
  • Location: Huntingdon Cambridgeshire 45ft ASL

    Im collecting all this rain that we have and spraying it in the air once the cold hits, best chance of snow all winter.

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    Posted
  • Location: Croydon. South London. 286 ft asl
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, snow, Ice days, warm sunny days.
  • Location: Croydon. South London. 286 ft asl
    1 minute ago, tight isobar said:

     

    @bundles of-snow for the south east... and dvr..lets av a look at your post easterly analysis pal aye...  keyboard warrior type.. with no input.. on every level.!!!!

    Keyboard warrior 🤣 I didn't think you would get upset with my post, but it's cool.. I ain't mad at cha👍

    I seriously struggle to read your posts, though.. and I don't need to do an easterly analysis post - i''l look at the charts and out the window. 😁

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    Posted
  • Location: Brentwood, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Brentwood, Essex
    38 minutes ago, kold weather said:

    ECM at 1am, 4am and 11am respectively:

    us_model-en-999-0_modez_2021020412_61_4855_155.thumb.png.f8b46af1b1e05a9ade2fa20fd134fd0a.pngus_model-en-999-0_modez_2021020412_64_4855_155.thumb.png.b73f2912507c1b56a465de2a33b4665d.pngus_model-en-999-0_modez_2021020412_71_4855_155.thumb.png.c2aad6809ea21b60e75a34c10d5e6619.png

    Compared to the 00z suite:

    ECM - further east

    GEM - further east

    GFS - Further west

    ICON: Further west, but only fractionally.

    ARPEGE: Further west, though weak

    UKMO: Further west, and noticeably stronger.

    So still a very mixed bag out there, all options on the table. 2 models are further east, 4 have moved further west, though w of those 4 are only slightly west.

    Anyone that confidently tells you its going to be this or that solution is talking out their rear, no confidence at all, especially further west. Could be anything from nothing to 4-5 inches.

    Thanks for this Kold, very informative 😊

    out of all the models is it just the GFS that has rain on Sunday for most of the SE from whatever falls ? 

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    Posted
  • Location: Northiam, East Sussex, 70m asl
  • Weather Preferences: snow,thunder,tornados
  • Location: Northiam, East Sussex, 70m asl
    2 minutes ago, simonhall6 said:

    Thanks for this Kold, very informative 😊

    out of all the models is it just the GFS that has rain on Sunday for most of the SE from whatever falls ? 

    And you know this will be right

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    Posted
  • Location: Upminster, (Very) East London
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, sun and snow.
  • Location: Upminster, (Very) East London
    3 minutes ago, D.V.R said:

    Keyboard warrior 🤣 I didn't think you would get upset with my post, but it's cool.. I ain't mad at cha👍

    I seriously struggle to read your posts, though.. and I don't need to do an easterly analysis post - i''l look at the charts and out the window. 😁

    What I’ve learned so far with Tight Isobars posts is as long as does this: 👊, things are dapper. 

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Croydon. South London. 286 ft asl
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, snow, Ice days, warm sunny days.
  • Location: Croydon. South London. 286 ft asl
    7 minutes ago, Lord Grogon said:

    What I’ve learned so far with Tight Isobars posts is as long as does this: 👊, things are dapper. 

     

    He is very expressive, I know 😄

    Edited by D.V.R
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    Posted
  • Location: Huntingdon Cambridgeshire 45ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow - Frost - A beach in the Med
  • Location: Huntingdon Cambridgeshire 45ft ASL
    1 minute ago, E17boy said:

    Back to the current weather very heavy rain here in Walthamstow right now.

    just imagine this was snow 😊

    "Do you want to build a snowman la la la la " 🙂

     

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    You know somethings brewing when people are arguing about the weather 😂

    Looking great for many in our region, regardless of snow it's going to be a very cold week!

    5cm and I'll be happy IMBY, which doesn't look in danger atm.

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    Posted
  • Location: Huntingdon Cambridgeshire 45ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow - Frost - A beach in the Med
  • Location: Huntingdon Cambridgeshire 45ft ASL
    1 minute ago, Uxbridge90 said:

    You know somethings brewing when people are arguing about the weather 😂

    Looking great for many in our region, regardless of snow it's going to be a very cold week!

    5cm and I'll be happy IMBY, which doesn't look in danger atm.

    I jut need enough to make the drive up the hill impossible, snow day.

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)

    Someone in west Kent hitting the jackpot?

    15z UKV 00z Sunday to 00z Monday, could be 24 hours continuous snow for some.

    UKV_LOOP.thumb.gif.3e5ab5f49a72640f83cf7f3c5d9c950e.gif

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    Posted
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
  • Weather Preferences: 30 Degrees of pure British Celsius
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
    6 minutes ago, E17boy said:

    Back to the current weather very heavy rain here in Walthamstow right now.

    just imagine this was snow 😊

    You'll know when it goes cold...it will then be dry!😉

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    Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-sea, East Sussex (11.8M ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, snow, and winter storms
  • Location: Bexhill-on-sea, East Sussex (11.8M ASL)
    1 minute ago, Nick F said:

    Someone in west Kent hitting the jackpot?

    15z UKV 00z Sunday to 00z Monday, could be 24 hours continuous snow for some.

    UKV_LOOP.thumb.gif.3e5ab5f49a72640f83cf7f3c5d9c950e.gif

    From an imby perspective it would be nice for the highest totals to shift a tad further south into East Sussex!

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    Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
    13 minutes ago, simonhall6 said:

    Thanks for this Kold, very informative 😊

    out of all the models is it just the GFS that has rain on Sunday for most of the SE from whatever falls ? 

    As far as I can see, yes.

    Again using the same 82 seperate ensemble members and operational models (Ie NOT GFS/ensembles, for comparison sakes) for the 12z runs:

    6 are too warm for wider parts of Kent and maybe S.Essex, 1-2 of them too warm for most of the region indeed.

    8 are marginal for the very far SE tip of Kent 

    68 look ok for the whole region.

    I'll update tomorrow's 00z run to see where the trend goes. Soon I will be able to add ARPEGE ensembles as well as a few other high resolution models, giving a total of 110+ separate runs.

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Tonbridge, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Wintry and stormy weather
  • Location: Tonbridge, Kent
    4 minutes ago, Nick F said:

    Someone in west Kent hitting the jackpot?

    15z UKV 00z Sunday to 00z Monday, could be 24 hours continuous snow for some.

    UKV_LOOP.thumb.gif.3e5ab5f49a72640f83cf7f3c5d9c950e.gif

    Yes please. That’ll do nicely 😊

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    1 minute ago, Froze were the Days said:

    You'll know when it goes cold...it will then be dry!😉

    Yes exactly what I was thinking not a drop from the sky then lol 😂 it's our luck. Sunday is beginning to look interesting but we still got a big time gap between now and then, please no downgrades 

    😊👍

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