South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards

[lassie23]

Just now, HammerJack said:

Very confusing in the mad thread! Will it, won’t it. I’ve never let myself get over excited  yet, after all the let downs. I’m really hoping the ECM comes up trumps! 
question though. Did the UKMO have the mild sector too? I’m struggling to understand what model people are talking about in the mad thread! 

It's an absolutely brilliant model run with a chance of rain and it all being over in 4 days is what I got from that thread

[kold weather]

3 minutes ago, HammerJack said:

Very confusing in the mad thread! Will it, won’t it. I’ve never let myself get over excited  yet, after all the let downs. I’m really hoping the ECM comes up trumps! 
question though. Did the UKMO have the mild sector too? I’m struggling to understand what model people are talking about in the mad thread! 

The 12z has no warm sector:

Only gets colder from that point onwards. Same with EVERY other global model.

I think people are going a little nutty because of the GFS is throwing up some marginal air into the extreme SE. In truth the odds are still far more stacked in that not happening, and even if there is a slightly warm area, we've got much more leeway than normal due to the air source.

In this type of flow, -2c will be ok for snow to fall given its overnight and the air source doesn't have much time to shift upwards.

Edited February 4, 2021 by kold weather

[Kent Blizzard]

Not fussed about the "rain" that'll be down in the Channel and SW...I'd be worried abiut it if I lived in Jersey.

 

[londonblizzard]

Absolutely no issues with rain from sunday onwards on the ECM 12z, even in the extreme extreme extreme south east

[scrat]

1 hour ago, Neilsouth said:

I'll probably log out of the forums for good too, it will be the biggest let down I've ever experienced if that happens

I don't think you will be alone there! 

[kold weather]

Less snow on this ECM run compared to the 06z run that was put out earlier on.

This is mainly due to the LP being just a little more SE which allows the front to clear just that bit quicker.

Still, there is some snow for most of the region, with the rain turning to snow sometime around 12-2am, then it really depends o just how long the precipitation holds as to how much snow ends up falling.

Edited February 4, 2021 by kold weather

[Vortex3929]

The ECM t96 isobars are dented. I sense troughs maybe caught up in the flow. It's those short timescale disturbances which can crop up and enhance shower activity. These are also generally overlooked. Expecting more of these to occur as we go forward (locations will be determined closer to the time once we get the high res models come into view).

On a side note, buying boots for his highness (my pooch) to assist with his arthritis when walking in wet/cold conditions. Not a jinx! Just an investment. At least that's my excuse to bypass any jinxing 

 

 

[alexisj9]

4 minutes ago, londonblizzard said:

Absolutely no issues with rain from sunday onwards on the ECM 12z, even in the extreme extreme extreme south east

There wasn't on the ITV news meridian just now either, and they get forecasts from the met. In fact there was a warning, so cue the panic buying, to get anything essential done before the warning starts.

[alexisj9]

3 minutes ago, UKSnakey said:

The ECM t96 isobars are dented. I sense troughs maybe caught up in the flow. It's those short timescale disturbances which can crop up and enhance shower activity. These are also generally overlooked. Expecting more of these to occur as we go forward (locations will be determined closer to the time once we get the high res models come into view).

On a side note, buying boots for his highness (my pooch) to assist with his arthritis when walking in wet/cold conditions. Not a jinx! Just an investment. At least that's my excuse to bypass any jinxing 

 

 

Might be where the GFS secondary low came from, over playing hopefully, one of those little kinky troughs.

Edited February 4, 2021 by alexisj9

[Me & angel fiance]

1 hour ago, Paul Sherman said:

Am sure all will be fine 

I am hoping for just enough here in Margate to be taking my doggie out for our first snowy walk together. Easily pleased me. Here's hoping! 

[Vortex3929]

Oo er! Sticks and stones may break bones but kinky troughs excite me. Blush!

[Snipper]

1 hour ago, Neilsouth said:

I'll probably log out of the forums for good too, it will be the biggest let down I've ever experienced if that happens

Oh for goodness sake grow up. We will get what the weather Gods want us to have. 

[Stu_London]

1 hour ago, Polaris said:

If it weren’t lockdown I’d definitely take a drive east on Sunday to Cambs, or Norfolk. 
 

Do it anyway - just say you are going McDonalds or something - loads of others at it.

[Marie]

Just now, Me & angel fiance said:

I am hoping for just enough here in Margate to be taking my doggie out for our first snowy walk together. Easily pleased me. Here's hoping! 

Yep me too , my little labradooodle is just 1 years old and not seen snow yet , fingers crossed 

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

I was working on a job today and the customer was eager for us to get the parts for the repair ASAP.

He kept asking ‘will it be here tomorrow?’ (which I couldn’t confirm) so I suggested it might be Monday - which he seemed okay with... until for some reason I decided to tell him it was going to snow heavily on Sunday and all the roads would be impassable, which he didn’t like at all

[Stu_London]

3 minutes ago, Marie said:

Yep me too , my little labradooodle is just 1 years old and not seen snow yet , fingers crossed 

I've heard labradoodles don't like snow all that much

[Oaks]

5 minutes ago, Me & angel fiance said:

I am hoping for just enough here in Margate to be taking my doggie out for our first snowy walk together. Easily pleased me. Here's hoping! 

Got a 8 month old collie and I'm just wanting to see his reaction to snow, pretty sure he is gonna go nuts

[NewEra21]

ECM 12z still looking good for the majority of us in the SE & EA. 850s also not a problem for the far SE of the region.

Edited February 4, 2021 by NewEra21

[Polaris]

6 minutes ago, Stu_London said:

Do it anyway - just say you are going McDonalds or something - loads of others at it.

I’m thinking about it mate. If further eastward progressions creep in, then I’ll just call it a day and travel to Tesco for a few beers instead ready for Mondays snow showers. 

[Vortex3929]

Another forecast/ take on the upcoming cold. 

Finally: Beast from the East set to release extreme cold and snow over Europe next week

WWW.SEVERE-WEATHER.EU

---

A cold outbreak is setting up for next week as a so-called Beast from the East will push extreme cold and also some snow towards the central-west Europe.

 

[E17boy]

15 minutes ago, kold weather said:

Less snow on this ECM run compared to the 06z run that was put out earlier on.

This is mainly due to the LP being just a little more SE which allows the front to clear just that bit quicker.

Still, there is some snow for most of the region, with the rain turning to snow sometime around 12-2am, then it really depends o just how long the precipitation holds as to how much snow ends up falling.

I think once the front has cleared we will be then in the line for convection snow coming in, At this point it's anyone's guess how much convection will get going and how heavy showers will be. I guess we won't know till the day, from past setups like this showers tend to crop up at very short notice Fingers crossed most of us will get a covering.

[snowking]

It shows how spoilt we have been by recent output that I’m pretty underwhelmed by the 12z ECM. Looks good for the eastern half of the region though. On to the next run!

[Polaris]

2 minutes ago, NewEra21 said:

ECM 12z still looking good for the majority of us in the SE & EA

Cambridge, Norfolk, Suffolk, Essex = Bank 

[Stu_London]

ok - model dramas for this afternoon over.

I'd still back snow for all as about an 80-90% chance.

[londonblizzard]

Anyone else quite enjoying the fact that this will be a cold spell *not* affecting france and central western europe? 
Always get a bit envious when we have a easterly cold spell here and it just looks even colder with our neighbours on the continent, like in 2018