South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards

[alexisj9]

31 minutes ago, Polaris said:

Latest Beeb forecast have pushed snow graphics way east for Sunday. 

Not mirroring Meto warning area at all.

Although she did confirm ‘exact position of any snowfall still uncertain’ 

No wrap around at all, how often does that happen. There must be some ppn where it just cuts off.

[kold weather]

2 minutes ago, EML Network said:

Yup I went through all the GFS runs this morning as I had a bit of spare time and most of them had a push of warmer air over quite a large chunk of the South East which would be warm enough to turn any precipitation to rain in the areas the LP covers. 

it would only need a teeny tiny shift south though of these pesky Low pressure so it stays centred over France and doesn't encroach here, but if anything the various runs are bringing these into play more. 

These are the runs from the GFS 06z that would POTENTIALLY ruin any chances of seeing snow falling in the areas the low pressure covers, ESPECIALLY so down here and sadly there is quite a lot of them showing this at some point or another over Sunday and into Monday.

That's far too many runs for my liking, in fact it's exactly 1/3 of them. 

Yeah thats a risk still.

However a couple of key points:

1: If its above -5c it doesn't mean it will rain, though I admit by the coast it would make things much more iffy. All depends on the airflow really, if we can keep the core of the LP to our SE, the airflow will come in from the SE and keep us cold enough, as per the 06z OP.

2: Other ensemble models are much less worried about this:

GEM : 4 out of 22 members (inc OP) look too warm.

ECM: 3 out of 52 members (inc OP)

So its probably the GFS again doing what GFS does best, overegging the development which devlops too much of a warm sector.

All this is not to say its not a risk, because it clearly still could be, but for now I'd say the odds are still very much in our favour.

[paget]

Stop buying sledges!!

im going to ceremonially burn my sledge while holding a twig of holly in my teeth dancing around the fire naked!

[Snow Queen one]

43 minutes ago, Speedbird said:

wise words - as nice as the synoptics are looking right now I think i'll hold back on cracking open the bottle of Pomagne 

How old are you lol I remember buying bottles of that to take to parties as a teenager. Can you still buy jt?

[gooner265]

Ok , I couldn't hold off anymore , I have put out a warning on my local FB page , I hope I haven't put the mockers on it lol , needless to say it has been met with severe scepticism  

[Stu_London]

1 minute ago, kold weather said:

Yeah thats a risk still.

However a couple of key points:

1: If its above -5c it doesn't mean it will rain, though I admit by the coast it would make things much more iffy. All depends on the airflow really, if we can keep the core of the LP to our SE, the airflow will come in from the SE and keep us cold enough, as per the 06z OP.

2: Other ensemble models are much less worried about this:

GEM : 4 out of 22 members (inc OP) look too warm.

ECM: 3 out of 52 members (inc OP)

So its probably the GFS again doing what GFS does best, overegging the development which devlops too much of a warm sector.

All this is not to say its not a risk, because it clearly still could be, but for now I'd say the odds are still very much in our favour.

what is remarkable is the range of solutions GFS has between 60-72 hours. 

I suspect we will fall the right side of marginal, but FI has been reeled into to almost +24-48h

[Speedbird]

2 minutes ago, paget said:

Stop buying sledges!!

im going to ceremonially burn my sledge while holding a twig of holly in my teeth dancing around the fire naked!

We're going to need photographic evidence. And not of molten plastic.

[Stu_London]

1 minute ago, Snow Queen one said:

How old are you lol I remember buying bottles of that to take to parties as a teenager. Can you still buy jt?

I think Prosecco is the rubbish fizzy wine of the current era

[Speedbird]

3 minutes ago, Snow Queen one said:

How old are you lol I remember buying bottles of that to take to parties as a teenager. Can you still buy jt?

It was bought to celebrate the next decent snowfall

Oh, and just turned 50. 

Edited February 4, 2021 by Speedbird

[Southender]

Nice clear predicted snow graphic I found on Twitter. 2-5cm generally. 5-10cm further North and East and 10cm+ for lucky spots in EA like Norwich .

 

[kold weather]

6 minutes ago, Stu_London said:

what is remarkable is the range of solutions GFS has between 60-72 hours. 

I suspect we will fall the right side of marginal, but FI has been reeled into to almost +24-48h

Yeah, though again the period on the ECM is pretty rock solid with the chosen solution, at least in terms of it being cold enough anyway, something like 7% of the runs go too warm?

Quite a big difference compared to the GFS at 30%+

You've got to wonder why that would be the case? The only thing I can think of it the GFS is developing the low stronger than the other models. This is backed up by the GFS ensembles overall looking heavier on the precip front for many in the south (as well as the operational as well). We all know the GFS has a bias when it comes to these types of events (its what kept screwing it over to start with in this forecast). Doesn't mean its wrong however...

Be interesting to see what the 12z suite does. Maybe Stu we are just going to have to wait and see what comes in, its feeling like its going to be one of those nowcast events that may shift quite drastically close in on the time.

Edited February 4, 2021 by kold weather

[winterfreak]

49 minutes ago, Speedbird said:

wise words - as nice as the synoptics are looking right now I think i'll hold back on cracking open the bottle of Pomagne 

That’s a blast from the past... Pomagne!!!

[alexisj9]

8 minutes ago, gooner265 said:

Ok , I couldn't hold off anymore , I have put out a warning on my local FB page , I hope I haven't put the mockers on it lol , needless to say it has been met with severe scepticism  

I'll do the same on Saturday evening if the DP is low enough, and I can see where it is. Along the line of don't ignore the weather warning, it's coming.

[Daniel*]

Quite the upgrade from ECM 06z on Sunday with southern and western extent. Possibly a concerning situation in East Anglia with the strong easterly winds the drifts will be quite something.

[Froze were the Days]

North Sea SST's from weatheronline...and generally between 4.5 to 5.5c along the east coastline in shallower water.

 

Edited February 4, 2021 by Froze were the Days

[snowking]

6 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

Quite the upgrade from ECM 06z on Sunday with southern and western extent. Possibly a concerning situation in East Anglia with the strong easterly winds the drifts will be quite something.

Always good to get a view of the behind the paywall output, cheers Dan.

These charts will probably still be an overestimate, but given the likely nature of the snowfall (the powder kind), the 10:1 snowfall to liquid ratios used to calculate these will probably be much closer to the truth than they usually would be for the UK (usually this ratio is chosen as it is the sort of ratios they get in the US where most of their snowfall tends to be more on the powdery side, but this is often less true for the UK).

Still a nervous wait through until Saturday to get a better grip on where this ends up, but I don't think too many in here would be disappointed with that.

Edited February 4, 2021 by snowking

[Speedbird]

3 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:

North Sea SST's from weatheronline...

 

should be able to walk across from Southend to Rotterdam by the end of next week

Edited February 4, 2021 by Speedbird

[Downpour]

6 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

Quite the upgrade from ECM 06z on Sunday with southern and western extent. Possibly a concerning situation in East Anglia with the strong easterly winds the drifts will be quite something.

Horrible UHI effect over Greater London though, as ever.

 

I do hope Londoners get out to Epping Forest and similar where totals will be 2-3x that in Zones 1 & 2. 

[kold weather]

3 minutes ago, snowking said:

Always good to get a view of the behind the paywall output, cheers Dan.

These charts will probably still be an overestimate, but given the likely nature of the snowfall (the powder kind), the 10:1 snowfall to liquid ratios used to calculate these will probably be much closer to the truth than they usually would be (usually this ratio is chosen as it is the sort of ratios they get in the US where most of their snowfall tends to be more on the powdery side, but this is often less true for the UK)>

Still a nervous wait through until Saturday to get a better grip on where this ends up, but I don't think too many in here would be disappointed with that.

Yeah thats a fair point. I think probably 9:1 maybe more realistic, especially further north-east you go closer to the source of the cold air.

Even so snowking when you've got it suggesting 4-6+ inches in a wide area and in many places much higher, that obviously is no bad thing.

Its interesting to see the 06z ECM has also done the same thing as the GFS op which is to strengthen the frontal system, the extent isn't drastically different though.

IMBY, the 06z ECM is a *huge* upgrade, from 1-2 inches to 3-4 inches. I'd take that right now.

Edited February 4, 2021 by kold weather

[80sWeather]

3 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

Quite the upgrade from ECM 06z on Sunday with southern and western extent. Possibly a concerning situation in East Anglia with the strong easterly winds the drifts will be quite something.

Snow from the East hardly ever makes it to Western parts  of East Anglia, however this looks pretty good, let’s hope

[Froze were the Days]

8 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

Quite the upgrade from ECM 06z on Sunday with southern and western extent. Possibly a concerning situation in East Anglia with the strong easterly winds the drifts will be quite something.

Contrasts a bit from the 'could get several cm's' from BBC Sarah Keith-Lucas at 1.30pm forecast!

[Hammer]

2 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:

Contrasts a bit from the 'could get several cm's' from BBC Sarah Keith-Lucas at 1.30pm forecast!

Would be unlikely so far out the media would say anything else. Several CM's better to say at this stage than guarantee of inches.IMHO.

[Polaris]

4 minutes ago, 80sWeather said:

Snow from the East hardly ever makes it to Western parts  of East Anglia, however this looks pretty good, let’s hope

Cambourne/ Cambridge looks set for heavy snowfall Sunday

[Delka]

Nailed on for at least several cm of snow here come Sunday/Monday here from what i can see! very excited now

[Daniel*]

7 minutes ago, Downpour said:

Horrible UHI effect over Greater London though, as ever.

 

I do hope Londoners get out to Epping Forest and similar where totals will be 2-3x that in Zones 1 & 2. 

An exaggeration don’t you think? It has 3” across nearly all of London. Don’t take it as a gospel but looks good for all Londoners... I’d be happy.