South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards

[Snipper]

43 minutes ago, TomSE12 said:

Thanks SB,

It was a thought that occurred to me, with all this talk of disruptive Snow, some may struggle to get a delivery next Week.

Think I may give it another Day, before warning my Stepson about Snowfall next Week.

He's an Electrician and works for British Gas during the Day and works for another Company, during the Evening, on Emergency call-outs.

Sometimes he doesn't get home, until 4 A.M.

He was telling me the other Day, that his Night-time area includes the Medway Towns, including the Hoo Peninsula, which lies between the Medway and Thames Estuaries. As you can imagine it's very flat and windswept. 

Below, is an image of the aftermath of Blizzard conditions that struck the area, in January 1979:

The photo was taken near the Village of Grain, on the tip of the Hoo Peninsula. Many Cars became stranded and buried, in huge Snowdrifts.

Better not show that to his Mum and frighten her.

The above image is from the Kent County Weather Book and reproduced with the kind permission of Co-Author, Ian Currie.

Regards,

Tom.  

Recall when I was young when we drove down to Dover there use to be snow fences to the east side of the road as snowfall driven by eastily winds use to regularly cause a problem with drifts.

[Allezwasps.]

Not expecting massive amounts as we had in 2010 here on the slopes of Wokingham .., but you never know ....

[Mr_Pessimistic]

23 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Agree with this, my thoughts exactly, long way off still but on this 06Z, I expect very little snow here on Sunday

Thats what happened here in Suffolk in 2010, got 1cm when everywhere else got pasted. I expect the same thing to happen again, it'll continue to move south leaving Suffolk in the dry zone. 

[Timmytour]

4 minutes ago, Mr_Pessimistic said:

Thats what happened here in Suffolk in 2010, got 1cm when everywhere else got pasted. I expect the same thing to happen again, it'll continue to move south leaving Suffolk in the dry zone. 

This could be the local weather forecast being delivered in Suffolk next weekend....

[jamesgold]

I only ever had about 3 or 4 cm lying at a time in BFTE 2018. I really think there’s a chance of getting more

[TommyB]

BFTE 2018 wasn't particularly notable for snow here, but the temperatures were absolutely freezing, especially for March daytime. Hoping this spell may bring more snow, we did very well here on the coast in 2010! Have had barely a flake since 2018, and there was barely anything before that since March 2013 (which was a very good event!)

[Weather Wonder]

Anyone else thought of the potential disruption? During our last wet snow event on Sunday there was big problems with grit not being as effective due to the lower traffic on the roads. Imagine the same scenario but with powder snow continually accumulating and sub zero daytime temps.

Edited February 4, 2021 by Weather Wonder

[southbank]

morning folks - can anyone remember the last time we had a proper channel low that gave a decent covering here in SE ?

2018/1991/2009 where easterlies / thames streamers 

 

was dec 1st 2010 a channel low?

[Chiltern_Blizzard]

anyone have any thoughts on views on how far west this event might spread?

GFS seems to have it almost country wide?

 

Where as the ICON seems to keep much further east

 

I'm wondering if im too far west in Bucks.

[LightningLover]

8 minutes ago, TommyB said:

BFTE 2018 wasn't particularly notable for snow here, but the temperatures were absolutely freezing, especially for March daytime. Hoping this spell may bring more snow, we did very well here on the coast in 2010! Have had barely a flake since 2018, and there was barely anything before that since March 2013 (which was a very good event!)

Fingers crossed us East Sussex dwellers score highly this time!

I actually did fairly well in 2018 when I was living in Hastings, we had about 8-10cm on the ground when it was all said and done! I was living fairly high up though near the Ridge.

and yes, the daytime maxes were something else! -2c was the high on the 28th.

Edited February 4, 2021 by LightningLover

[snowrye]

4 minutes ago, southbank said:

morning folks - can anyone remember the last time we had a proper channel low that gave a decent covering here in SE ?

2018/1991/2009 where easterlies / thames streamers 

 

was dec 1st 2010 a channel low?

March 2013

[Timstar1]

I'm getting rather excited now about this upcoming event....  Being right on the coast here in Hawkwell, Essex  it has been very dissapointing so far this winter to say the least.   Trying to contain myself at this stage but it certainly does seem to be upgrading day by day at this stage, if the models are still good tomorrow I will allow myself to upgrade to 75% excited mode, currently at 60%

[Southender]

3 minutes ago, Timstar1 said:

I'm getting rather excited now about this upcoming event....  Being right on the coast here in Hawkwell, Essex  it has been very dissapointing so far this winter to say the least.   Trying to contain myself at this stage but it certainly does seem to be upgrading day by day at this stage, if the models are still good tomorrow I will allow myself to upgrade to 75% excited mode, currently at 60%

Welcome to the madhouse Timstar1. Fellow SE Essex resident here. Things looking good for us at the moment from Sunday morning onwards....don't go telling anybody just yet though!

[Speedbird]

1 minute ago, Southender said:

Welcome to the madhouse Timstar1. Fellow SE Essex resident here. Things looking good for us at the moment from Sunday morning onwards....don't go telling anybody just yet though!

one more day, then I think everything would be all but set in stone . . . or ice

[HammerJack]

Here we go!!

[jamesgold]

Met office warnings have been moved to cover the SE as well

[Southender]

Beautiful warning updates from the METO for the region!!

[kold weather]

@Chiltern_Blizzard its probably still a little too far out to have much confidence yet. The ICON may well be underestimating the inland precipitation, especially as the front weakens later on and the ICON dissipates it.

Still even the ICON has some snowfall for us guys who are much further west in the region, just not as deep. Its worth noting the ICON is trash at convection inland, so the fact it shows *anything* inland past Sumday eveing suggests to me there is a very strong snow signal . These will probably band into lines so its going to be a little hit and miss but given we will have several wind shifts and at least a solid 48hrs before the airmass dries a little perhaps I think most will have a period of time under snows.

The GFS obviously for us guys further west is better though.

[Mark wheeler]

2 hours ago, simonhall6 said:

Just been on Amazon to order some sledges for the kids, couldn’t wait any longer lol ️ 

Done it 2 days ago , but didn’t want to announce it

[alexisj9]

1 hour ago, Snowman31 said:

Still very good for snow for our region on Sunday on 6 GFS. Hope it doesn't miss us nearer to the time. 

If it does go south, I wouldn't worry to much, the cold will be here, and with the proposed uppers thing could be good. It will definitely be cold.

[Paul Sherman]

One thing to note that is not being reported on the MAD Thread is the strength of the Wind on the Norfolk and Suffolk coasts with 50mph winds this with any snow showers will create blizzard condition which in itself is rare in the Uk. Some small communities could become very much in trouble with any drifting.

[craigore]

BBC Weather app now has 16 hrs of light continuous snow for manston in kent early hrs Sunday morning through the whole day wth temps around 0c 

Followed by 2 yes 2 ice days..

Cant be right ? Can it ?

Has me dry Tues and Weds 

More Snow Symbols for Thurs..

[Timstar1]

Thanks for the welcome Southender!  I haven't told a sole, promise...  but I have been secretly waxing the sledges down in the shed at night   Certainly the most exciting potential event I can remember in the past few years, fingers crossed for us all!

[kold weather]

Quite a bold Met office warning actually for Saturday-Sunday for the SE/EA region and E.Midlands in particular:

Quote

Cold air, along with snow showers to low levels pushing inland from the North Sea, is expected to spread south during the weekend. Not all locations will see snow, with the showers likely to miss some places altogether. In addition to the showers, there is a chance that an extended period of more persistent snowfall could impact parts of the Midlands and southeast England overnight Saturday and through Sunday. This is all likely to bring areas of accumulating snow through the period with some icy stretches developing, with some parts seeing 5-10 cm, possibly 15 cm of snow. Although disruption from this event could occur anywhere within this region, the Midlands and south-east England is the area most likely to see disruptive snow accumulating more widely, from later Saturday until the middle of Sunday.

In line with what some of the global models are showing as well.

As it notes, the showers may well be hit and miss but any extended persistant snowfall is going to be far less likely to miss areas that are unlucky.

Thats reads like an amber warning to me, its just they obviously aren't quite confident enough yet to go that high.

Edited February 4, 2021 by kold weather

[Ian Docwra]

For snow lovers, the good thing about the Jan 24th fall here in Surrey was that it fell onto frosty, frozen ground and settled immediately.  The forthcoming snow (if any) would be falling onto warmer, wet ground and settling would be delayed by early melting.