South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards

[stainesbloke]

Looking at model output this morning, it appears positive for a good 4-5 day cold spell across the region from Sunday, with several chances at snowfall, at this stage. Of course, as others have alluded to, the finer details are not visible yet. Some very low temperatures are appearing in Scandinavia and the Netherlands are forecast to get 5-6 ice days from Sunday (daytime ‘highs’ of -6°C on Wednesday!) so that’ll help with chances of ice days in this region

Still mild here in Prague (7°C currently). The wind warnings certainly verified overnight, it blew an absolute hoolie and kept me awake for a while. Still blustery now. Forecast here looks good too for wintry weather, ice days from Sunday until the following weekend. So a dollop of winter for us all to enjoy  

Edited February 4, 2021 by stainesbloke

[Daniel*]

2 hours ago, Nick L said:

This morning's EC, mouthwatering. Even treats us to heavy frontal snowfall across the whole of southern Britain on Thursday.

Bank! 

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Well, after days of ramping in the MOD thread, it’s getting safer to say many Southeasterners will be seeing a fair bit of snow, more than just your average snow showers by the looks of it too. Roll on Sunday! 

For folk on the coast, watch out for scenes like this! 

 

[SnowBear]

Just seen @TomSE12's post and particularly the last part on supermarket delivery slots for those worried about supplies.

Although not carrying the widest range of products Iceland do seem to have plenty of delivery slots, at least in the Colchester area. 

I did a shop with them this week, ordered Tuesday evening, delivered yesterday (Wednesday) early afternoon. 

Also if you hit the £35 mark the delivery is free. 

So if you do find other supermarket slots are full its one to consider. 

[TSNWK]

1 minute ago, Daniel* said:

Bank! 

that’s for sea level in the heart of London.. with a max of 1 from Sunday to Saturday and 3 ice days.

Take at least 1 degree of those values for low level suburban areas, more so for the usual rural and with height areas.

did I under estimated with suggesting ice days across the reason from Sunday to Thursday....

[Blessed Weather]

Here's a look at the GFS forecast for the coming week which suggests daytime 2m temps don't get above freezing level for all but the extreme S/SE coastal strip from Sunday morning through to the following Friday:

And the precipitation sequence over the same period shows snow for most, especially for the eastern coastal strip and East Anglia. The first breakdown attempt on Thursday looks interesting, with an 'all snow' event. The second push on Friday finally brings a breakdown of the cold. But both Thurs and Fri events are too far away to be taken seriously at the moment, with variance between the models.

And finally, the Met Office weather warning for Monday 8th:

Source: https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/warnings-and-advice/uk-warnings#?date=2021-02-08

[simonhall6]

Just been on Amazon to order some sledges for the kids, couldn’t wait any longer lol ️ 

[Uxbridge90]

It's certainly going to be cold next week and those to the East of the region could see some pretty impressive snow accumulations!

Hoping we have similar totals (6cm) as the other weekend in West London, the perfect amount that doesn't cause too much disruption and it only lasts a few days, anymore than that and it just becomes a pain in the backside. 

Let's hope for no further shifts in terms of Saturday evening/Sunday morning! 

 

[Neilsouth]

I'm really hoping we don't get any ESE winds, and tracks more NE as more people would be in the game, even London. Can't stand ESE!

[bumpydogz]

58 minutes ago, 80sWeather said:

Been working since 06:45 and just peeked at the models.

Jeezus wept the ECM snow depths for Sunday, hypothetical of course but shades of 1947 total bonkers

Just to avoid confusion and disappointment, this is the total for a week on Sunday...

[Vortex3929]

5 hours ago, Kentspur said:

My mum lives in Strood. There was a run of winters in the 1990s and even early 2000s where we'd be snowless in Dartford and you could guarantee once you got past Gravesend Medway would have some nice falls of snow with a NEly flow there that then went on to head through mid Kent Tunbridge Wells etc and into Northern parts of Sussex occasionally, I always remember 90% of winters Chatham and Gillingham in particular having a lot more snow than anywhere west of here! 

 

I also remember a very localised 10cm snowfall in Strood that came out of nowhere which I believe to have been around 1st December 1996, absolutely nothing in Dartford or Gravesend then got to London Road Strood and suddenly boom heavy snow shower left a nice few inches, but there was nothing further East in Medway! Was the most bizarre localised snowfall I've ever known!

Its so unusual we get a snowy ENE flow to bring the goods home to the NW Kent/SE London borders and the same over the river in Essex/ E London though early January 2003 was the first decent snowfall I remember in these areas since probably the famous Feb 1991 event and we could be on the cusp of a historic  "Thames streamer" which is still good for medway also 

Good morning @Kentspur. Was Jan 2003 part of the infamous nationwide thundersnow event? Jan 28th I think? ENEly flows are fickle I've found but also taking into account Gravesham and Dartford seem to have higher temps than most of the county aside from perhaps Maidstone (Summer temps always has Gravesend topping the table for example). I suspect theres an small urban heat island in this area as well. Topography of the surrounding areas may also play a part with rural areas (Higham comes to mind) naturally being cooler and more supportive to snow then warm buildings radiating heat.

An easterly imo would benefit Gravesham better, possibly due to a localised lake effect snowfall scenario (streamers etc) being better aligned as opposed to Ene or Ne

[Tom Quintavalle]

1 minute ago, SnowBear said:

Just seen @TomSE12's post and particularly the last part on supermarket delivery slots for those worried about supplies.

Although not carrying the widest range of products Iceland do seem to have plenty of delivery slots, at least in the Colchester area. 

I did a shop with them this week, ordered Tuesday evening, delivered yesterday (Wednesday) early afternoon. 

Also if you hit the £35 mark the delivery is free. 

So if you do find other supermarket slots are full its one to consider. 

Thanks SB,

It was a thought that occurred to me, with all this talk of disruptive Snow, some may struggle to get a delivery next Week.

Think I may give it another Day, before warning my Stepson about Snowfall next Week.

He's an Electrician and works for British Gas during the Day and works for another Company, during the Evening, on Emergency call-outs.

Sometimes he doesn't get home, until 4 A.M.

He was telling me the other Day, that his Night-time area includes the Medway Towns, including the Hoo Peninsula, which lies between the Medway and Thames Estuaries. As you can imagine it's very flat and windswept. 

Below, is an image of the aftermath of Blizzard conditions that struck the area, in January 1979:

The photo was taken near the Village of Grain, on the tip of the Hoo Peninsula. Many Cars became stranded and buried, in huge Snowdrifts.

Better not show that to his Mum and frighten her.

The above image is from the Kent County Weather Book and reproduced with the kind permission of Co-Author, Ian Currie.

Regards,

Tom.  

[Captain Shortwave]

It has turned very foggy here in the last half an hour or so after a sunny start. Hopefully those showers won’t produce too much rain up here later.

[ITSY]

20 hours ago, 80sWeather said:

My experience of Easterly’s in Huntingdon for the last 20 years is bone dry and cold.
However I’m now a bit further East nearer Cambridge like yourself so we can only hope.

With you here 80s. But the ops this morning sure gave us a welcome wake up a call! Praying they’re right, esp for Sunday as I’m always most interested in the next event...

[gooner265]

6 hours ago, Kentspur said:

My mum lives in Strood. There was a run of winters in the 1990s and even early 2000s where we'd be snowless in Dartford and you could guarantee once you got past Gravesend Medway would have some nice falls of snow with a NEly flow there that then went on to head through mid Kent Tunbridge Wells etc and into Northern parts of Sussex occasionally, I always remember 90% of winters Chatham and Gillingham in particular having a lot more snow than anywhere west of here! 

 

I also remember a very localised 10cm snowfall in Strood that came out of nowhere which I believe to have been around 1st December 1996, absolutely nothing in Dartford or Gravesend then got to London Road Strood and suddenly boom heavy snow shower left a nice few inches, but there was nothing further East in Medway! Was the most bizarre localised snowfall I've ever known!

Its so unusual we get a snowy ENE flow to bring the goods home to the NW Kent/SE London borders and the same over the river in Essex/ E London though early January 2003 was the first decent snowfall I remember in these areas since probably the famous Feb 1991 event and we could be on the cusp of a historic  "Thames streamer" which is still good for medway also 

I definitely saw more snow when I moved to Rochester from Dartford and I was very low , just 5 mins walk from the high street, but then there was a Thames streamer a few years back where we missed out and my mum got plenty back in Dartford so it's swings and roundabouts really. 

I am right on the Thames so any streamers i will enjoy until I return to medway hopefully next year.

[ITSY]

A word of caution - ICON moves Sunday much further south and east. ECM was leaning to this, UKMO seemed half way to GFS. One to watch....

[kold weather]

06z ICON still looks plenty snowy from Sun-Tues.

Still some uncertainties regarding Sunday, that will probably end up being an on the day type situation to be honest.

Very interesting to see it picking out some inland convection pushing through on Monday as its very poor at handling inland convection. That suggests to me the signal for deep penetrating snowfall is very strong for the whole region, even the west of the region. Also plenty of hints at some streamers setting up as well during Monday and possibly into Tuesday as well when the winds shift towards true easterly.

 

 

[PiscesStar]

50 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

Bank! 

Hi bud. Wheres this graph from please 

[MAF]

Another word of caution.... it is still only Thursday, such a lot may change in the coming days; I wouldn't start making lifestyle choices just yet (personally just my opinion)  

[Methuselah]

40cm? In the Triangle? I'll take it!     

[gooner265]

3 minutes ago, MAF said:

Another word of caution.... it is still only Thursday, such a lot may change in the coming days; I wouldn't start making lifestyle choices just yet (personally just my opinion)  

I am still holding off warning anyone especially with the uncertainty of the tracking of that low on Sunday.

[Snowman31]

Still very good for snow for our region on Sunday on 6 GFS. Hope it doesn't miss us nearer to the time. 

Edited February 4, 2021 by Snowman31

[Daniel*]

14 minutes ago, Snowfish2 said:

Hi bud. Wheres this graph from please 

Weathermodels.com I have a subscription not cheapest.

[Mark Bayley]

54 minutes ago, Uxbridge90 said:

It's certainly going to be cold next week and those to the East of the region could see some pretty impressive snow accumulations!

Hoping we have similar totals (6cm) as the other weekend in West London, the perfect amount that doesn't cause too much disruption and it only lasts a few days, anymore than that and it just becomes a pain in the backside. 

Let's hope for no further shifts in terms of Saturday evening/Sunday morning! 

 

We may even break 10cm if the 6z GFS and ICON come off 

 

Edited February 4, 2021 by Mark Bayley

[kold weather]

The 06z GFS spreads the precipitation on Sunday further west than most of the rest of the models, and gives heavier stuff further west as well into the western parts of the region.

The ICON on the hand has it more focused further east, with a lower level of snowfall for areas west of London, though even here in places like Surrey we'd be looking at maybe 1-3cms on Sunday.

Monday looks very interesting though with enhanced signs of convection coming in from the east across much of the region. This is seen on both the 06z GFS and ICON.

Edited February 4, 2021 by kold weather