South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards

[Nick L]

This morning's EC, mouthwatering. Even treats us to heavy frontal snowfall across the whole of southern Britain on Thursday.

[NO LONGER POSTING]

3 minutes ago, Nick L said:

This morning's EC, mouthwatering. Even treats us to heavy frontal snowfall across the whole of southern Britain on Thursday.

Yep.. When I saw the folk in the MOD thread dismissing this cold spell for the south I laughed in my shed office.. In these setups we almost always do well when the Atlantic slides.. IF IT DOES!! Some folk "up north" might be a bit like wtf?! by this time next week.. 

[SHM040519]

Sunday is getting closer. It feels like we are 3-0 up in a football match with 5 mins left. Surely the other team can’t come back now!? 

[Nick L]

4 minutes ago, Surrey said:

Yep.. When I saw the folk in the MOD thread dismissing this cold spell for the south I laughed in my shed office.. In these setups we almost always do well when the Atlantic slides.. IF IT DOES!! Some folk "up north" might be a bit like wtf?! by this time next week.. 

I think this might be one of the best model runs I've ever seen for snow. Outstanding. 

It probably won't happen, but it certainly shows what we COULD get from this set up.

[snowblind]

The met office overnight update for our region mentions "wintry rain" on Saturday night and scattered snow showers on Monday now. I much preferred yesterday's with talk of frequent and heavy snow showers. Seems to be changing quite a bit at the mo so, hopefully, it will change for the better again.

[kold weather]

Looks to me like the ECM 00z is more than a little bit hinting at a Thames streamer setting up on Monday.

Whats good about that is the winds shift from near NE through to near due east. Should that happen it will spray most of the areas over a 24hrs that would be typically at risk from a streamer and obviously at the foot of the Estuary you'd be looking at a pretty consistant train of snow showers.

Saturday night is still uncertain about exactly how quickly it shifts to snow, but I'd be surprised if there isn't some good falls, with more the further NE you go in the region, maybe only a dusting for areas in the SW of the region.

Edited February 4, 2021 by kold weather

[lottiekent]

51 minutes ago, Surrey said:

I expect these to be updated probably tomorrow to include much of the East coast then Saturday I assume the detail on Sunday will be resolved...

 

If we get a snowy Sunday again that would be 2 in 3 weeks.. I have never ever experienced that in my 27 years on the planet 

I’d just like my first snowy Sunday of the year  

Down to 0.7c overnight, much colder than expected but looking at local stations it was very localised (we are in a small dip).

[TSNWK]

On temperature.. would me saying that broadly speaking our region drops below 0 Sunday morning and stays sub until Thursday...wacky or realistic?

I think it is possible? 

Edited February 4, 2021 by TSNWK

[Kentspur]

5 minutes ago, lottiekent said:

I’d just like my first snowy Sunday of the year  

Down to 0.7c overnight, much colder than expected but looking at local stations it was very localised (we are in a small dip).

Still a tropical 6.3c here in Gravesend but nothing marginal for anywhere with favourable dew points thicknesses and upper air temps later on Sunday and look at this ramp from BBC 

[snowblind]

Beautiful morning here. Frosty with blue skies and patches of mist.

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Yard photo!! Freezing fog here 

-1 in the sticks! 

[TSNWK]

7 minutes ago, Kentspur said:

Still a tropical 6.3c here in Gravesend but nothing marginal for anywhere with favourable dew points thicknesses and upper air temps later on Sunday and look at this ramp from BBC 

Well I guess that answers my question on ice days..   although I do think they are guilty of over estimates in the past

[Big Dave]

Lovely morning here with most incredible orange pink sky sunrise. 

I need to stop looking at snow accumulation charts for Ashford which I know won’t be correct it always show disappointing total for this little town. 

Either that, or I just need to move north and higher a bit. 

God I wish I still lived up around North West Kent/ Surrey border.. Oxted, Westerham, Caterham etc would be looking great right now. 

*Goes off to look at snow accumulation charts and RightMove again

[kold weather]

6 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

Well I guess that answers my question on ice days..   although I do think they are guilty of over estimates in the past

As maxes that is probably fair, unless you get constant snow streamer convection, which may help to suppress the temperatures.

High resolution models will be coming into play in the next couple of days for early next week which will start to get a better grip on any stronger streamers. 

I'm highly confident with low pressure, decent lapse rates and the wind direction will kick start a Thames streamer, its got all the hallmarks of it IMO, especially Monday through to Tuesday morning before perhaps the winds shift a little too true easterly for a time.

Beyond that and who really knows, could well be some decent snow coming in from the south but long way to go there.

[Mr_Pessimistic]

Hi, anyone got any snow depth charts for Norfolk and Suffolk for Sunday/Monday?     Thanks....!

[Tom Quintavalle]

Morning all,

Hope yourselves and your Families, are well.

Have just finished watching the final frames of the 00z ECM run, and it appears we have a "full house", if Cold/Wintry Weather is your thing.

But as I stated Yesterday, I'm not counting my chickens, just yet.

My 16 Year Membership of the NW Forum, plus a little while before that as a visitor and a frequent viewer of BBC Snow Watch and The Weather Outlook, has made Yours Truly a bit of a Meteorological, "Doubting Thomas."

I may well be being over cautious but I agree with another Member who stated that they would like another 24 hours worth of steadfast Modelling, before being totally convinced of a Cold and Wintry spell, for our Region.

The old adage, "Once bitten, twice shy", springs to mind  but the problem is, it's more than once that we've been bitten.

I would even include the 00z runs Tomorrow Morning, to give a little extra assurance of the outcome.

I know I shouldn't be looking that far ahead, as we havn't even started the expected Cold Spell yet but the final few frames of the 00z ECM run, took my eye. See below:

Some deep cold has been developing over Scandinavia. See recent temperatures, below:

That brutal Cold could well encourage some positive height rises, over Scandinavia and those final few frames of the 00z ECM run, shows exactly that scenario occurring. The final frame (t240), even shows those heights linking to heights over Greenland.

It's a long way off but it would certainly be a route to prolonging the Forecast Cold Spell, with the G.I.N. Corridor closed off and the Jet Stream, continuing to take a more Southerly track.

I would just like to apologise to Nick L. and Paul Sherman, for not including them in my "go to" Posters, another load of experience to add to that Septet, I mentioned in my Post of Yesterday Evening, and apologies to other very informative Posters that I may have left off that List.

I just want to end on a serious note.

My Wife (Colette) has been doing a lot of our Food Shopping, Online.

She's been worried about contracting the Coronavirus, in our local Suoermarkets.

TBH, I think we've both had it anyway, late Feb/early March last Year.

We both have had a CV Test come back negative, about a Week and a half ago. But I think we'd need a Blood Test to see if any Antibodies, are showing up, although evidently they diminish after about 6 Months.

Colette still hasn't regained her sense of smell (and taste), after nigh on 11 Months after her Illness. Mind you, that's probably not a bad thing, having to wake up next to me each Morning, bless her!!

Anyway, with the talk of possible disruptive Snow early next Week, those that Food Shop Online, might want to try and grab some last minute delivery slots for the next few Days, if you can .

So, it's "steady as she goes" but let's get a few more positive runs under our belts, then perhaps we can start talking about Snowfall distribution.

I'll leave you with a very encouraging Met Office Outlook, for Saturday to Monday.

Outlook for Saturday to Monday:

The very cold air which is currently in place across the north will spread southwestwards across the whole UK. Snowfall is highly likely, especially across many eastern areas.

Updated: 04:00 (UTC) on Thu 4 Feb 2021.

Regards,

Tom. 

Edited February 4, 2021 by TomSE12

[snowblind]

Fog rolled in now. Temp just above freezing.

[Paul Sherman]

Thick Fog all night and does not look like shifting in the Estuary anytime soon, as the wind picks up this morning  and some showers arrive that should dissipate it though.

[Blazerblue]

Bright blue skies, cold and a touch of frost this morning, everything slowly drying out again, still some flooding over fields. I know everyone is getting excited about the prospect of snow, and Id normally be the same, happy to have the cold come in, helps to dry out more, but really dont want masses of snow, as it melts will just create gunky soggy mess and this year I dont feel up to dealing with it. Cold, sunny, blue skies please.

[80sWeather]

Been working since 06:45 and just peeked at the models.

Jeezus wept the ECM snow depths for Sunday, hypothetical of course but shades of 1947 total bonkers

[kold weather]

15 minutes ago, Paul Sherman said:

Thick Fog all night and does not look like shifting in the Estuary anytime soon, as the wind picks up this morning  and some showers arrive that should dissipate it though.

I used to love watching the fog rolling in from the Estuary, though I had a small valley in the form of the Mardyke river which used to sometimes make it a little tougher for the fog to get up and over. Still cool to see when it did make it however.

[Lampostwatcher]

Surely the metoffice will extend there warnings into the south east for this Sunday 

[Paul Sherman]

3 minutes ago, Lampostwatcher said:

Surely the metoffice will extend there warnings into the south east for this Sunday 

Yh pretty sure they will update them around 1015am and extend them south and west

[Mark Bayley]

19 minutes ago, 80sWeather said:

Been working since 06:45 and just peeked at the models.

Jeezus wept the ECM snow depths for Sunday, hypothetical of course but shades of 1947 total bonkers

Looks good doesn't it!

 

Here in NW London it is becoming more likely I may break my 6cm fall from a few weeks ago! Perhaps even as early as Sunday (GFS Para looking particularly tasty). Hopefully we then get in on some of the shower action! 

[Sparky68]

I might have to fit my winter tyres at this rate!