South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards

[moogyboobles]

12 minutes ago, claret047 said:

Hello there.

Did your father attend what was then known as Westlands Secondary Modern, but today is called Hylands School?

I have assumed that is where he went!
I've been trying to figure it out for sure but I cannot find any photographs of the school online then to compare the one I have, to confirm it.
He sadly died when I was a teenager, and then my mum a couple of years ago... and I've inherited all the photos and videos.
I've spent quite a bit of lockdown time sorting them out and going on rather interesting journeys... I even found a marching band from Hornchurch on facebook and I had photos of them in the 1950s!

All my dad's family are from Writtle and those still with us are still around there. 

I have gone way off topic now sorry! 

I do have a video of my sister and I in the snow in '91 in SWF, so that's my weather offering! 

 

[kold weather]

26 minutes ago, lawrenk said:

I’m probably being unduly pessimistic but, for a relatively small group of us near the channel (I’m about 10 miles inland), I just have a bit of a sinking feeling about this, despite the seemingly brilliant synoptics. I just fear some of us may be too far south and not quite far enough east to benefit from any shower activity and then the wrong side of marginal for any attack from the west. 

If anyone has some words of encouragement that would be much appreciated!

I've been very cautious so fr in the build up to this set-up.

However

The models are indeed getting increasingly snowy, the GFS ensembles are the snowiest yet, as is the most recent GEM as well.

There will probably be relative winners and losers though as per normal in any wind direction.

For example personally I think I will be right at the far end of any streamer that might set-up, and I may well be too far south given the flow looks a little too true Easterly at times. However I think there will be some snow, just no where the extent that some places further NE in the region might end up with.

[alexisj9]

30 minutes ago, kold weather said:

To be fair its still far from certain there even will be a warm sector, the 12z ECM will probably be helpful to see on that front since if both it and the GFS agree on its existence I'd go along with it.

However even then the key will be the wind direction. If we get unlucky it may well lead to somewhat too marginal conditions through the estuary and along the coasts. If it ends up like the 12z GFS there maybe a very small window during Monday afternoon where its on the wrong side.

BUT

There is so much instability on the GFS that you'd be seeing plenty of snow showers either side, so I'm not overly concerned about it.

The 12z GEM is exceptionally snowy considering how much precip it has and given its a global model.

Yep hopefully that warm front under the cold front just off shore from Kent, occludes or just isn't there, but while it is there, Kent will get warm air mixing in, ahead of the triple point occlusion. Talking about an old met office chart posted yesterday. I'm not sure what they show now though.

[chionomaniac]

Working out when to transfer, the majority of my emphasis from MOD thread to this thread. Saturday afternoon I reckon.

[Big Dave]

1 minute ago, chionomaniac said:

Working out when to transfer, the majority of my emphasis from MOD thread to this thread. Saturday afternoon I reckon.

I sincerely hope so!   That sounds about right but getting into squeaky bum territory now. 

When a decent looking snow event disappears from one or two models 6 days out, I might 'be a bit glum'.... but we've now upgraded from there to  the 'throw the laptop in the pond' level.  

I get worried when we reach the tipping point and you cant see how it could upgrade any further... at that point, there's only one direction left... and I fear we may be there.  

[Zak M]

Incredible sunset this evening.

      

[lassie23]

10 minutes ago, chionomaniac said:

Working out when to transfer, the majority of my emphasis from MOD thread to this thread. Saturday afternoon I reckon.

Did you think it will be a short sharp cold spell or a lengthy one?

[Bogman]

1 minute ago, lassie23 said:

Did you think it will be a short sharp cold spell or a lengthy one?

Nope sorry lass, can't get any innuendo from that.  

Edited February 3, 2021 by Bogman

[Mark Bayley]

15 minutes ago, kold weather said:

I've been very cautious so fr in the build up to this set-up.

However

The models are indeed getting increasingly snowy, the GFS ensembles are the snowiest yet, as is the most recent GEM as well.

There will probably be relative winners and losers though as per normal in any wind direction.

For example personally I think I will be right at the far end of any streamer that might set-up, and I may well be too far south given the flow looks a little too true Easterly at times. However I think there will be some snow, just no where the extent that some places further NE in the region might end up with.

Yes, beginning to look better for our region. I'm not rating my chances of anything significant here in NW London, but any covering of snow would be very much welcome! 

[Badgers01]

3 minutes ago, Zak M said:

Incredible sunset this evening.

      

Was stunning here in Surrey too ! Good capture !

[chionomaniac]

4 minutes ago, Big Dave said:

I sincerely hope so!   That sounds about right but getting into squeaky bum territory now. 

When a decent looking snow event disappears from one or two models 6 days out, I might 'be a bit glum'.... but we've now upgraded from there to  the 'throw the laptop in the pond' level.  

I get worried when we reach the tipping point and you cant see how it could upgrade any further... at that point, there's only one direction left... and I fear we may be there.  

Oh, it can definitely improve and remove the marginality in the coastal regions.  It’s only Wednesday, so I am not going to get too excited yet.  I have a friend in Bognor, who I am giving her snow percentage values for next week. Laying snow that is.  Monday, I said 30%, yesterday was a bit of a rollercoaster but finished on 35%. 

I will wait until this evenings 18Z before giving today’s outlook. But it may rise a little more.

[chionomaniac]

4 minutes ago, lassie23 said:

Did you think it will be a short sharp cold spell or a lengthy one?

Somewhere in between, with waxing and waning.

[Captain Shortwave]

A little sunshine today but mostly cloudy thanks to that band of rain further south.

Patchy frost under clearing skies tonight.

Tomorrow will see showers push up from the south. These could be heavy and slow moving given a slack southerly flow. Possibly making 10c on the south coast. More generally around 7-9c so around or a little above average.

It really feels like the calm before the storm, in this case it is a bitter easterly.

Edited February 3, 2021 by Captain Shortwave

[Chrisover93]

31 minutes ago, kold weather said:

I've been very cautious so fr in the build up to this set-up.

However

The models are indeed getting increasingly snowy, the GFS ensembles are the snowiest yet, as is the most recent GEM as well.

There will probably be relative winners and losers though as per normal in any wind direction.

For example personally I think I will be right at the far end of any streamer that might set-up, and I may well be too far south given the flow looks a little too true Easterly at times. However I think there will be some snow, just no where the extent that some places further NE in the region might end up with.

Southern coastal looking to miss out on the big stuff again

[lassie23]

15 minutes ago, Bogman said:

Nope sorry lass, can't get any innuendo from that.  

didn't realize i phrased the end like that lol

[Froze were the Days]

21 minutes ago, lassie23 said:

Did you think it will be a short sharp cold spell or a lengthy one?

If the UKMO comes off at least 4 days from Sunday...GFS shorter but I'm going by our Mets model

Lets pray to the Weather gods that comes off...a bit of everything in that run, convectional stuff then onto a channel slider.

[gooner265]

43 minutes ago, kold weather said:

I've been very cautious so fr in the build up to this set-up.

However

The models are indeed getting increasingly snowy, the GFS ensembles are the snowiest yet, as is the most recent GEM as well.

There will probably be relative winners and losers though as per normal in any wind direction.

For example personally I think I will be right at the far end of any streamer that might set-up, and I may well be too far south given the flow looks a little too true Easterly at times. However I think there will be some snow, just no where the extent that some places further NE in the region might end up with.

Living on the Thames , I'm hoping for the classic Thames streamer which I think needs an ESE wind?

[yamkin]

1 hour ago, alexisj9 said:

Only if the low to the west move SE lol.

The latest MetO YouTube video mentioned this low and will be keeping an eye on this as this could nudge up into Southern areas and give a lot of snow

[yamkin]

 YouTube snapshot Courtesy of the MetO's Latest Update 

[kold weather]

7 minutes ago, gooner265 said:

Living on the Thames , I'm hoping for the classic Thames streamer which I think needs an ESE wind?

The ideal direction tends to be a ENE, especially if your south of the Thames, though an easterly is fine and ESE is ok for S.Essex and if the conveciton is strong enough that can spread to the other side of the Estuary once past the QE2 bridge as the river is narrower anyway past there so has less impact.

Some of my best experiences were from Thames streamers back in the day, had some great ones in Feb 2005 and also Feb 2006. Sadly I wasn't around to experience the FEb 09 monster being down the south coast, but I came back a weeks later to still see a sizeable number of drifts, etc.

Edited February 3, 2021 by kold weather

[chionomaniac]

I need an ENE streamer with strong winds to benefit. With lower heights then instability increases and the amount of snow reaching me does too.

[gooner265]

1 minute ago, kold weather said:

The ideal direction tends to be a ENE, especially if your south of the Thames, though an easterly is fine and ESE is ok for S.Essex and if the convection is strong enough that can spread to the other side of the Estuary once past the QE2 bridge as the river is narrower anyway past there so has less impact.

 

Sorry I meant ENE lol , I am on the south side , in fact I can see the QE2 bridge from my balcony 3.5 miles away.

[kold weather]

1 minute ago, chionomaniac said:

I need an ENE streamer with strong winds to benefit. With lower heights then instability increases and the amount of snow reaching me does too.

Yeah I'm probably right at the far end of any moderate streamer, so I'm not expecting much other than maybe a dusting from time to time unless we get a SW intrusion, but thats a ways off yet still.

Of course if it goes full blown 09 then that might be a different story, but I'm not sure the air is quite cold enough for that level of outbreak, despite what looks like decent instability aloft.

[Eagle Eye]

53 minutes ago, chionomaniac said:

Working out when to transfer, the majority of my emphasis from MOD thread to this thread. Saturday afternoon I reckon.

In 2 weeks time

[kold weather]

This was a snapshot radar image which shows snowfall distribution for the beast from the east in late feb 2018 btw:

I suspect the radar may well looks something like this on Monday. On Sunday there maybe more general frontal snow around as well, especially for EA.