Jump to content
Cold?
Local
Radar
Snow?

South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards


Recommended Posts

Spotted a post you think may be an issue? Please help the team by reporting it.
  • Replies 8k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Posts

I suppose not really weather related but I just wanted to say thank you all so much.  I've really really enjoyed following the posts today.  I am awaiting Open Heart Surgery sometime this year and you

Oh my f**king god. How many times does it need saying? 1. The amber doesn't expire until tomorrow midday 2. Widespread heavy showers & streamers are going to follow later, tonight,

Evening. Here's my estimated #snow depths for England and Wales that I expect until noon on Monday, using a blend of high resolution models.

Posted Images

Posted
  • Location: Northiam, East Sussex, 70m asl
  • Weather Preferences: snow,thunder,tornados
  • Location: Northiam, East Sussex, 70m asl
    1 minute ago, Tornadotitan said:

    Decisions Decisions will I need a sledge or a boat at the weekend 😂

    Boat, you know it's all going to go belly up, it always does for us, you could run every model a thousand times, and every model run, bar 1, will show cold, snow galore, but that 1 run showing rain, will be the right 1 lol

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    3 minutes ago, snowrye said:

    Boat, you know it's all going to go belly up, it always does for us, you could run every model a thousand times, and every model run, bar 1, will show cold, snow galore, but that 1 run showing rain, will be the right 1 lol

    Think I will agree this time,my fingers have been burnt so many times so the boat it is .

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Shirley, Croydon, Greater London
  • Location: Shirley, Croydon, Greater London

    I see GFS 6Z has started it's big downgrade 😬 Wed/Thurs will be the best time to firm up the models for this weekend. Fingers crossed ❄️

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: St rads Dover
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, T Storms.
  • Location: St rads Dover
    48 minutes ago, Blazerblue said:

    Need to get through the next few days of whats looks like another load of rain before thinking about snow. Another flooded week on the horizon unfortunately 🥱

    The unfortunate thing is, if it does get cold and snowy, it won't help with the flooding issue, the ice and snow has to melt, and most likely rain will be doing that, so flooding will only get even worse.

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Shirley, Croydon, Greater London
  • Location: Shirley, Croydon, Greater London

     

    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Brighton
  • Weather Preferences: Snow Storm That Lasts 3 Days
  • Location: Brighton

    Is tit me or the models look terrible atm? for South East I mean.

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Chessington, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Hot and Sunny but not opressive
  • Location: Chessington, Surrey
    2 hours ago, SLEETY said:

    When it's safe to order the sledges .Need another 24 hours at least .I have seen easterlies go wrong at 96 hours before

    I remember on one occasion it went bust at just 48 hours out . Every forecast had the easterly and it changed overnight and it was gone , can’t remember the year though. Anyway let’s hope that’s not the case this year , We have a real chance of some real noteworthy weather . 

    • Like 3
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Bromley, SE London (60m ASL)
  • Location: Bromley, SE London (60m ASL)
    7 minutes ago, turkishfella said:

    Is tit me or the models look terrible atm? for South East I mean.

    They certainly don’t look terrible at all, the chance is still there for a freeze up down here and it only takes slight shifts in positioning to make or break. Granted I’d feel safer in Durham than London for this, but it’s certainly not terrible, models are still working it out

    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: St rads Dover
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, T Storms.
  • Location: St rads Dover
    4 minutes ago, turkishfella said:

    Is tit me or the models look terrible atm? for South East I mean.

    Still to early to say, the first low might go to far north, but something could still set up afterwards, let's see what happens, and fingers crossed, the 0z GFS was correct with the placing of the first low, although the others bought something in a day later. Who knows what the twelve z will show.

    • Like 2
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast

    Looking forward to the 12z Runs. Could be a notable cold spell for the SE, despite all the overreaction in the mad thread to one gfs run which was a mild run in the ensemble, and won't verify,  bit like ecm and all the mild runs it was showing till today, and none of them verified either. 

    Expect a firming up on the cold weather later. 

    • Like 3
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Sawbridgeworth, Hertfordshire
  • Location: Sawbridgeworth, Hertfordshire

    When I have time I occasionally pick a point in the future and see how the models (operational) change as we near that time. I have 13:00 on 6th February saved. So 144 hours from 12z yesterday and will compare them to 120 hours from 12z today and so on during the week. 

    Just my own way of considering things but I can see why people enjoy reacting to everything.

    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough
    1 hour ago, Tornadotitan said:

    Decisions Decisions will I need a sledge or a boat at the weekend 😂

    Ah where’s the imagination... Why not an amphibious sledge. 🛷 

    • Like 4
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Tunbridge Wells, Kent
  • Location: Tunbridge Wells, Kent
    16 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

    Looking forward to the 12z Runs. Could be a notable cold spell for the SE, despite all the overreaction in the mad thread to one gfs run which was a mild run in the ensemble, and won't verify,  bit like ecm and all the mild runs it was showing till today, and none of them verified either. 

    Expect a firming up on the cold weather later. 

    Hope you are right because if the trend from 06z were to continue, I think the fat lady would be stage left, ready to enter. For our region at least

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
    Just now, Stu_London said:

    Hope you are right because if the trend from 06z were to continue, I think the fat lady would be stage left, ready to enter. For our region at least

    Then both ukmo and ecm would both have to wrong for gfs to verify, can't see that, but we will know  in about 4 hours! 

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: N Kent. Medway
  • Weather Preferences: Extremes
  • Location: N Kent. Medway

    Good afternoon. I did enjoy seeing the 00z having a real snow lovers dream for the weekend. And given how previous weekends have gone, I wouldn't be surprised if it ended up being cold rain / sleet once more (saves getting my hope dashed). I'm also not going to buy into the idea until its showing on Fridays runs.

    I do wonder though, is it worth just using the 00/12z runs? My understanding is that these datasets have more input data than the 6z/18z. Correct me if I'm wrong by all means!

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Tunbridge Wells, Kent
  • Location: Tunbridge Wells, Kent
    1 minute ago, SLEETY said:

    Then both ukmo and ecm would both have to wrong for gfs to verify, can't see that, but we will know  in about 4 hours! 

    by trend continuing I would expect those models to start to move towards that sort of solution anyway. ECM has only been only been on board one run and has been flip-flopping like a fish out of water, so yet another change would not be the greatest surprise. 

    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Tunbridge Wells, Kent
  • Location: Tunbridge Wells, Kent
    Just now, UKSnakey said:

    Good afternoon. I did enjoy seeing the 00z having a real snow lovers dream for the weekend. And given how previous weekends have gone, I wouldn't be surprised if it ended up being cold rain / sleet once more (saves getting my hope dashed). I'm also not going to buy into the idea until its showing on Fridays runs.

    I do wonder though, is it worth just using the 00/12z runs? My understanding is that these datasets have more input data than the 6z/18z. Correct me if I'm wrong by all means!

    I thought it might be different datapoints as opposed to any significantly inferior data.

    Comparing daily runs (0z, to 0z next day), rather than inter-day runs (0z to 06z) is not a bad idea for longer term trends. 

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Halesworth, Suffolk
  • Location: Halesworth, Suffolk
    17 minutes ago, Captain Shortwave said:

    Ah where’s the imagination... Why not an amphibious sledge. 🛷 

    The one thing the top gear boys never made amphibious 😉

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: NW LONDON
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, sleet, Snow
  • Location: NW LONDON

    The beast from the east is becoming an extinct species

    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Anything interesting!
  • Location: Chelmsford, Essex

    Premature to call the easterly nailed after one set of runs being in broad agreement. 

    If the bookies offered odds on model output, I'd have had a sly tender on at least one of the 12z suite breaking rank again today. 

    When we see divergence toward a less extreme solution, for me it's a sign we'll probably end up with a middle ground. 

    For all it's faults, pretty sure we've had plenty of occasions where GFS has been the first to sniff a pattern, then first to drop it when we finally get agreement. Then we end up with a slow convergence of the extremes it churns out across all the models. 

    Purely anecdotal and unscientific, but still... 

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: NW LONDON
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, sleet, Snow
  • Location: NW LONDON
    2 minutes ago, Number 23 said:

    Premature to call the easterly nailed after one set of runs being in broad agreement. 

    If the bookies offered odds on model output, I'd have had a sly tender on at least one of the 12z suite breaking rank again today. 

    When we see divergence toward a less extreme solution, for me it's a sign we'll probably end up with a middle ground. 

    For all it's faults, pretty sure we've had plenty of occasions where GFS has been the first to sniff a pattern, then first to drop it when we finally get agreement. Then we end up with a slow convergence of the extremes it churns out across all the models. 

    Purely anecdotal and unscientific, but still... 

    a south easterly 5 degrees?

    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: West/East/Sussex Surrey border
  • Location: West/East/Sussex Surrey border
    timessquare-social.jpg
    WWW.EARTHCAM.COM

    EarthCam presents an extensive collection of live webcams, featuring the most exciting views of New York City's famous Times Square. For the past century, Times Square has been a...

     

    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Brockham, near Dorking, Surrey. 75m ASL.
  • Location: Brockham, near Dorking, Surrey. 75m ASL.

    A 'wee beastie' would be fun, of course, but it's all still very confused.  Hope it's not off-topic to recount that a few days ago, the BBC forecast for many London and SE stations (north and south of the city) was showing 10C+ for Tuesday to Thursday this week, which still looks to be likely, but was also linking to a Met Office weather warning of snow for London on those days! 

    Meanwhile, in happier times, your 59 year-old correspondent enjoyed the 24th January fall...!

     

    Screenshot 2021-01-29 at 13.35.02.png

    Screenshot 2021-02-01 at 13.45.48.png

    Edited by Ian Docwra
    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Sawbridgeworth, Hertfordshire
  • Location: Sawbridgeworth, Hertfordshire
    19 minutes ago, steveinsussex said:
    timessquare-social.jpg
    WWW.EARTHCAM.COM

    EarthCam presents an extensive collection of live webcams, featuring the most exciting views of New York City's famous Times Square. For the past century, Times Square has been a...

     

    Yes I think a few people are talking about this in the World thread. They can get some brutal cold as many know. 

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Guest
    This topic is now closed to further replies.
    • Cold waves hitting Europe continue to threaten growers, is there a link to climate change?

      Much of Europe, not just the UK, has experienced unseasonably cold weather since the Easter Weekend. A plunge of cold arctic air brought by northerly winds early last week brought several nights of frost and even snow across large swathes of Europe, followed by another wave of cold arctic air spreads across much of Europe this week. The frosts causing damage to new growth in vineyards and orchardsa0spurred on by a late March heatwave, the vineyards of France werea0particularly badly affected.

      Nick F
      Nick F
      Latest weather updates from Netweather 4

      High pressure rules, but still chilly out the sun & watch out for a few showers

      High pressure in charge for the rest of the week but the airmass will be chilly, so feeling nippy out of the sun. Not entirely dry either, with scattered showers around the next few days, especially in the west. Read the full update here

      Netweather forecasts
      Netweather forecasts
      Latest weather updates from Netweather

      You'll need your coat because it's still cold out of the sun

      More April snow for Monday morning with a widespread frost. If you have outdoor plans this week, the chill in the air remains especially once the sun goes down. Read the full update here

      Netweather forecasts
      Netweather forecasts
      Latest weather updates from Netweather
    • Recently Browsing   0 members

      No registered users viewing this page.

    ×
    ×
    • Create New...