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South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards


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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
4 minutes ago, Paul Sherman said:

Darren

Slightly concerning that all locations up and down the east coast have positive dewpoints even in the North East ?

I dont like the look of this one bit

Could be a huge round of applause to Ian from last night coming here as he might have spotted the alarm bells ringing very early with how Darcy was acting around 10pm last night

The dews are a little higher than expected, though not drastically so at the moment, the AROME 00z shows dews somewhere between 0c and 1c for 4am, whilst most of the SE regions are between 0-2c, we will have to see what the 5am numbers look like.

I suspect Paul the problem is the precip is a little lighter than expected which is having the exact same effect it had back in Feb 05 and not pulling down the colder air particularly as well as it would have done under heavier precipitation.  There is a growing and strengthening area that is slowly expanding W/NW into coastal parts of EA and I think once that arrives it will tip the balance for most to snow and then hopefully settling snow shortly afterwards.

I suppose my main thing is ARPEGE drops 10-15cms after 7am roughly so that does give us still some time to drop the temperatures and dews down a little further and in heavier precipitation I think it will swing the right way. 

Just a painful process getting there!

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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire

Bk on a serious vibe.. this isn’t a bust.. the meteocial obs are gradually aligning with the supposed progs.. as well as a gain in the vent stir ups... everything will begin to look different in 2/3 hrs... it’s process-its-evolution!... let’s not forget.. it’s land engagement that aids the cooling phase.. then the under flow draw pistol is triggered... it’s gonna happen..and likely with now very rapid response,!!!

Edited by tight isobar
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Posted
  • Location: Delnies, Nairn, Highlands (30m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and ice
  • Location: Delnies, Nairn, Highlands (30m asl)

Surprising to wake up to rain, but not at all despondent.

Timings have been pushed back but the snow will come and at least we have more daylight hours to enjoy it.

Thank goodness for live cricket in the meantime . . .

 

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Posted
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl
4 minutes ago, winterfreak said:

If I type out what I actually think I’ll go the same way as Mr Murr...

 

it’s looking like we may truly be cursed though I’m still crossing everything 

What did actually happen to him?

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Try and keep some peace.. Some people need to go and lay down and sleep.. Its not healthy.. Like I said.. My plan of going to bed and waking up now is spot on.. Perfectly splendid..  Not sure why people stayed up for something that wasn't meant to get going till later morning.. 

Everything looks okay.. I've checked  the live obs and the cold air didn't hop skip and jump 1000 miles east overnight.. 

It's funny that someone with zero meteorology knowledge or degree slates a world leading weather service...

That's like Dave down the pub with a packet of pork scratchings in one hand and a Stella in the other screaming at the TV when Beckham misses a goal "I could have got that in" no Dave.. You definitely couldn't

 

Edited by Surrey
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Sorry peeps for the downbeat but like a lot of us in here I don't think we imagined this episode turning out as it is. By now if things went to plan was hoping for the snow to start settling and get going, but we have nothing. The only reminder outside at the moment is the noise of that wind telling us I Will hugf and puff but I won't bring the snow down.

Its so sad , the weather is the weather and it just shows you no matter what we do and how much we wait for it,    It will only do what it wants.At least it's another lesson in the books that tells us not to higher our expectations, but alas we never learn as that is the nature of us coldies and snow lovers we never give up. 

Stay safe all

I wish there was something to be happy about but at the moment the mood I here I sense is not the best for the start of Sunday.

regards 

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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
3 minutes ago, Wynter said:

@Ian Docwra Well done mate. I think there's a few in here that owe you an apology. Don't hold your breath though.

Just a touch early to be congratulating yet...this is what is expected by 5am, hardly a lot of snow was expected at this stage:

4257_hoe6.png

Thats basically a dusting at most.

Besides he might be right for the WRONG reason...

Edited by kold weather
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Posted
  • Location: Maidstone, 230ft ASL
  • Location: Maidstone, 230ft ASL

Dew Points across the south east are starting to trend closer to zero looking at the chart.   I think the colder air cutting in is just a little bit slower than expected.

The 3am update the met office put out was pretty ballsy if this was going to be a bust.  "Heavy and persistent snow"...

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Posted
  • Location: Exeter
  • Location: Exeter

To lighten the mood, dew points on the GFS aren't widely expected to be below freezing yet.

GFSOPUK00_4_10.png

They fall to below freezing around 6am

GFSOPUK00_6_10.png

Which actually coincides with the band ever so slightly nudging further west (forecasted anyway) 

Also, it hasn't been that cold in the south east, so it was always going to take a bit of time for the transition. The Met Office warnings won't mention rain to begin because most people aren't like us, looking out the window at 4am haha. By the time they look out the window things will likely look much different!

Edited by Eastbourneguy
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Posted
  • Location: Heybridge, Essex!
  • Location: Heybridge, Essex!

Just woke up briefly and thought I’d check out the window and see how much snow we had, absolutely NOTHING! So i thought I’d check the radar to see if that looked promising, nope!

I’m with Paul here, this is going to go down as the biggest bust ever from the Met Office. Snow was due to start at 11pm last night, then 1am, 3am etc and now at almost 5am it’s currently drizzling with a temp of 2c!

How can they get it so wrong at a matter of hours before the event, I’ve been in the amber warning zone for days!!

Off back to bed, it’s a bust

Edited by Matty J
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Posted
  • Location: Mill Corner East Sussex, 55m asl
  • Weather Preferences: snow,thunder,tornados
  • Location: Mill Corner East Sussex, 55m asl
1 minute ago, bobbydog said:

What did actually happen to him?

It all kicked off in the mad thread, and some unsavoury words were used by mr murr

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Posted
  • Location: nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms
  • Location: nr Chelmsford, Essex

Last few radar frames show a notable NW shift and the heavier area of precip expanding.

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Posted
  • Location: Epping
  • Location: Epping
6 minutes ago, Wynter said:

No no no, you don't get to change what was said. I will quite happily go and pull out some quotes if you want. But, I was told not 5 hours ago that "everything was still on track", "just watch the radar as it still shows the snow heading our way".

And there was a lot of sarky comments about impatience and a lot of high 5ing each other about how awesome they were at this weather thing. 

Well what do you know, it turns out that the "useless" MO app knew more about the weather than they did!

Glad you are in agreement, the radar did show at that time that the snow was heading across the north sea and it was all on track.

It went wrong after but nothing has been hurt other than your expectations.

Dry your eyes and calm down, last minute changes are nothing new and no-one has died.

Lets see what happens over the next hours/days. 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Tunbridge Wells, Kent
  • Location: Tunbridge Wells, Kent

Before there is a collective meltdown - worth comparing the radar an hour ago to now. 

If the trend continues and it can get a bit of westward momentum - it might turn out all right - not for everyone - but some will get a result. 

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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

I didn't expect to be the voice of calm and reason, given I've got about as much chance as getting a decent covering as India have of winning the test series!

Seriously though, i'd still hold fire getting too concerned until 10am. IF then its still not going the right way then we can start to talk about busts. But alot can happen in 5hrs!

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Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
1 minute ago, Surrey said:

Try and keep some peace.. Some people need to go and lay down and sleep.. Its not healthy.. Like I said.. My plan of going to bed and waking up now is spot on.. Perfectly splendid..  Not sure why people stayed up for something that wasn't meant to get going till later morning.. 

Everything looks okay.. I've checked and the cold air didn't hop skip and jump 1000 miles east overnight.. 

It's funny that someone with zero meteorology knowledge or degree slates a world leading weather service...

That's like Dave down the pub with a packet of pork scratchings in one hand and a Stella in the other screaming at the TV when Beckham misses a goal "I could have got that in" no Dave.. You definitely couldn't

 

It wasn’t later in the morning m Essex weather says it clear as day the time for it to turn sub 0 is now 8AM up from 4 which was already from the previous times. 
 

The front giving any decent snowfall is quickly turning into 2-5cm with convection really taking the leading charge.  
 

Some will get 20cm I feel still but even those in the amber zone should not think this the guarantee it was looking 24hrs ago. 

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Posted
  • Location: Benfleet, South Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and breezy with a bit of cloud, about 20C
  • Location: Benfleet, South Essex

Lot of conflicting info flying around on here right now...

So what actually is happening with the snow? Is it late? Is it going to be less than expected? Is it not coming at all?

Anyone?

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Posted
  • Location: Tunbridge Wells, Kent
  • Location: Tunbridge Wells, Kent
Just now, kold weather said:

I didn't expect to be the voice of calm and reason, given I've got about as much chance as getting a decent covering as India have of winning the test series!

Seriously though, i'd still hold fire getting too concerned until 10am. IF then its still not going the right way then we can start to talk about busts. But alot can happen in 5hrs!

They are probably still narrow favourites for the series, although it would take something remarkable for them to win this match 

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Posted
  • Location: Mill Corner East Sussex, 55m asl
  • Weather Preferences: snow,thunder,tornados
  • Location: Mill Corner East Sussex, 55m asl
1 minute ago, Matty J said:

Just woke up briefly and thought I’d check out the window and see how much snow we had, absolutely NOTHING! So i thought I’d check the radar to see if that looked promising, nope!

I’m with Paul here, this is going to go down as the biggest bust ever from the Met Office. Snow was due to start at 11pm last night, then 1am, 3am and it’s currently drizzling with a temp of 2c!

How can they get it so wrong at a matter of hours before the event, I’ve been in the amber warning zone for days!!

Off back to bed, it’s a bust

Im still hopeful, but yes, I made the silly mistake as most in here now, and stayed up, I hope its not a bust, if it is, surely serious questions need to be asked, im going to go lay in bed, and see if I fall asleep in a bit

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1 minute ago, snowrye said:

It all kicked off in the mad thread, and some unsavoury words were used by mr murr

Hard not to when you see the mentality of some posters.. Shame.. Happens every time though when there is a weather event like this.. 

Some of us actually make it a hobby and study the weather.. Im all for teaching and learning myself and this fourms offer a great place to do it.. Just have to put up with a selxt few with zero to basic weather knowledge telling us how it all works.. 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley
8 minutes ago, wellington boot said:

Do you not think this is premature? Snow still forecast for most of the next two days and temps will soon be safely the right side of marginal.

No not really, when things are off by a full 5c on the dewpoint at any given timestamp (eg it was supposed to be -3c on the dewpoint at 4am) on 6 of the 8 models i looked at you know something has gone badly wrong at the beginning of the modelling.

Look at it this way, If I was chasing tornadoes and the temp was supposed to be 80f and the Dewpoint around 72f and in effect the dewpoint was 66f I would not expect to see tornadoes and only High Based Thunderstorms due to the high temp/dp spread and quickly tell my eager customers that some pretty clouds would be in the offing and not low lcl ground scraping tornadoes.

Something looks to have gone wrong with the modelling of Darcy or it gone awry somewhere over in the low countries

We shall see if trends improve in the next few hours but not holding my breathe, not writing off the whole spell but this first bite (frontal) is looking dodgy now

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Posted
  • Location: Linford, Essex
  • Location: Linford, Essex
9 minutes ago, kold weather said:

 

6 minutes ago, OzzyUK said:

Glad you are in agreement, the radar did show at that time that the snow was heading across the north sea and it was all on track.

It went wrong after but nothing has been hurt other than your expectations.

Dry your eyes and calm down, last minute changes are nothing new and no-one has died.

Lets see what happens over the next hours/days. 

 

 

And again, why are you changing what was said? Was ridiculed last night for following the MOs updates and watching the MO app update for the worst. I was told just watch the radar.... 

Didn't need to do that obviously, because the MO was right. So no, we're not in agreement at all.

 

Edit. Sorry Kold, don't know how your quoted text got in there.

Edited by Wynter
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