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South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards


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Just now, General Cluster said:

TBF, Surrey, it's also true that nine-times-out-of-ten when someone says that (that the models underestimate the resilience of cold blocks) the Atlantic weather systems take over anyway, regardless of what the models are saying?

This is true lol.. This is why start of this week and even sunday just gone when the models started to churn out the colder options I said Im waiting till Wednesday earliest.. 

If the Atlantic goes under then someone will be laughing with the amount of snow they will be getting ... Some not so.. Depends on your preference of cold weather 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Brockham, near Dorking, Surrey. 75m ASL.
  • Location: Brockham, near Dorking, Surrey. 75m ASL.

I think one of the problems with models using historical data is that we appear to be in a period of unprecendently rapid climate change and so history becomes less relevant.  Of course, it's impossible to avoid the historical element, but its use becomes far trickier with SSTs, ice cover and thickness, atmospheric pollution and so on changing so significantly from previous decades.  I have no solution, obviously, but it has to be accepted that we are dealing with a global data set that is changing so much that its behaviour becomes ever more elusive.  Models' computing power cannot necessarily keep pace with increasing variables.

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

I've always assumed that today's computer models work on the same foundation, as the old-fashioned 'slide rule' versions did: the laws of thermodynamics?

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Posted
  • Location: Cambourne Cambridge 70M ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Blizzards,Hot Thundery nights.
  • Location: Cambourne Cambridge 70M ASL
2 hours ago, ITSY said:

Just a hunch but I feel us in Cambridge will miss out again, this time because we're too far West to benefit from Sunday's low (necessary in order to bring in colder uppers) and not coastal enough to benefit from showers thereafter. Hopefully I'm wrong! 

My experience of Easterly’s in Huntingdon for the last 20 years is bone dry and cold.
However I’m now a bit further East nearer Cambridge like yourself so we can only hope.

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Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough

I guess the usual places will do well.

A Wash streamer is likely but the locations that could get hit will vary depending on the wind direction. The 2018 BFTE dumped half a foot at RAF Wittering but barely a centimetre fell in my location a few miles south.

The further south the cold get the better chance of Thames streamers setting up, otherwise coastal locations and then potentially any disturbances that could bring enhanced precipitation to all.

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Posted
  • Location: colchester,essex,40m asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Very Hot,Very cold.scared of thunder and lightning.
  • Location: colchester,essex,40m asl.
3 minutes ago, Captain Shortwave said:

I guess the usual places will do well.

A Wash streamer is likely but the locations that could get hit will vary depending on the wind direction. The 2018 BFTE dumped half a foot at RAF Wittering but barely a centimetre fell in my location a few miles south.

The further south the cold get the better chance of Thames streamers setting up, otherwise coastal locations and then potentially any disturbances that could bring enhanced precipitation to all.

I had snow on the ground for over 2 weeks.

That 2018 event.

Lovely icicles too.

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Posted
  • Location: Kent,Ashford
  • Weather Preferences: Love heat & thunderstorms, but hate the cold
  • Location: Kent,Ashford

checks the model output thread after about 3 weeks away from it

sees cold lovers getting excited about cold with a week or so away

 

yep nothing has changed in there

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Posted
  • Location: Brockham, near Dorking, Surrey. 75m ASL.
  • Location: Brockham, near Dorking, Surrey. 75m ASL.
9 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

I've always assumed that today's computer models work on the same foundation, as the old-fashioned 'slide rule' versions did: the laws of thermodynamics?

Yes , I would assume that they must form the bulk of it, but some historical data too?  Maybe not.  In which case, references to what has happened in past, ostensibly similar, scenarios are of little value.

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Posted
  • Location: Tunbridge Wells, Kent
  • Location: Tunbridge Wells, Kent
1 minute ago, Atmogenic said:

checks the model output thread after about 3 weeks away from it

sees cold lovers getting excited about cold with a week or so away

 

yep nothing has changed in there

well, its a bit nearer than a week - more like 4 days now - although that still doesn't guarantee anything in a highly complex set up. 

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Posted
  • Location: Brockham, near Dorking, Surrey. 75m ASL.
  • Location: Brockham, near Dorking, Surrey. 75m ASL.
4 minutes ago, Floatylight said:

I had snow on the ground for over 2 weeks.

That 2018 event.

Lovely icicles too.

Yes - I think we had a streamer effect in Epsom in December 1982.  I recall coming home from work on the train and between adjacent stations (Worcester Park and Stoneleigh) the snow depth more than doubled!

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Posted
  • Location: Nutley, East Sussex 120m ASL
  • Location: Nutley, East Sussex 120m ASL
3 minutes ago, Surrey said:

2018 was hit and miss for sure I was working in Marlow and they had snow in the ground there for ages..cant remember exact length of time.. 

I remember when the mild air arrived though as it went all "steamy" and foggy in the hills 

Don’t have much of a memory of snow for the 2018 event here in Sussex I think we had 1 day of lying snow. Just hoping it isn’t the same again this time and we all get a good dumping of snow 

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Posted
  • Location: Hailsham, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy snow and ice days
  • Location: Hailsham, East Sussex

2018 was, compared to the immediate years before, good here but still left me feeling frustrated given the set up. We did OK from the showers on the Monday evening, giving us 3 cms or   so but then nothing more until Fridays low came up, when it turned out we were a bit too far to the East, giving us no more than 2 or 3 cms again.

It also emphasised that, even in an extreme set up like that, the strength of the sun by late Feb, early March really makes it hard to keep snow on the ground, in the far south at least. That’s why it’s good we’re getting (hopefully) this cold spell before it’s too late.

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Posted
  • Location: Bury St Edmunds, Suffolk
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, frost and snow
  • Location: Bury St Edmunds, Suffolk

I know these apps can be fickle, but it's always nice to see snow symbols. Especially on the METO app.

And on the subject of the 2018 BFTE, here in my location it was the most memorable winter week of snow I've ever seen. One day (believe it was a Wednesday) was literally just continuous heavy snow all day long stuck under a streamer. Drifts were waist deep on the country roads, not sure I'll ever see anything like it ever again.

IMG_20210203_130704.jpg

IMG_20210203_130755.jpg

Edited by NewEra21
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Posted
  • Location: Ramsgate,East Kent.
  • Weather Preferences: BEASTERLYS
  • Location: Ramsgate,East Kent.

Dont know why but I'm just not feeling it about this insuing spell.

If as forcast by bbc I have daytime temps of +1-+3 c I cant imagine any sticking snow . Add to 5hat the 850s that seem to be around -6-7 average then there wont be any ice days either. 

I'm fully expecting cold wet slushy deposits...

Hope I'm wrong and maybe upgrades to come but for 2 days now most models have the lows to close for comfort which for has temps on the ground to high for measurable amounts if indeed we get snow at all.

A true Easterly  would have penetrating frosts wth ice days..not seeing that anywhere in the models I'm seeing..

In case your wondering I'm on the East kent coast...

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Posted
  • Location: Nymburk, Czech Republic and Staines, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in summer, thunderstorms, snow, fog, frost, squall lines
  • Location: Nymburk, Czech Republic and Staines, UK
1 minute ago, craigore said:

Dont know why but I'm just not feeling it about this insuing spell.

If as forcast by bbc I have daytime temps of +1-+3 c I cant imagine any sticking snow . Add to 5hat the 850s that seem to be around -6-7 average then there wont be any ice days either. 

I'm fully expecting cold wet slushy deposits...

Hope I'm wrong and maybe upgrades to come but for 2 days now most models have the lows to close for comfort which for has temps on the ground to high for measurable amounts if indeed we get snow at all.

A true Easterly  would have penetrating frosts wth ice days..not seeing that anywhere in the models I'm seeing..

In case your wondering I'm on the East kent coast...

Yes, if temperatures by day hit 3°C, then snow is pretty pointless as it will just turn to a wet, slushy mess. Hopefully not the case, this time

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Posted
  • Location: Home near Sellindge, 80m/250feet, 5miles from Coast
  • Weather Preferences: Severe Storms and Snow
  • Location: Home near Sellindge, 80m/250feet, 5miles from Coast

Am I the only one who really doesn't care how long the snow lasts, as long a it snows heavy over night and gives a decent covering? - Haven't seen that for years down this way

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22 minutes ago, stainesbloke said:

Yes, if temperatures by day hit 3°C, then snow is pretty pointless as it will just turn to a wet, slushy mess. Hopefully not the case, this time

True.. Although even at 0c or 1c I have seen snow melt because of crystal clear skies and bright sunshine.. Especially in March.  I noticed last night it was light till around 5pm well I could still just about fish in the light that was there.. 

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Posted
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
  • Weather Preferences: Storm, drizzle
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
1 minute ago, lassie23 said:

I hope it doesn't end in an anti climax...as for the weather

That get's less annoying every time someone says it

Xander

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Posted
  • Location: Tunbridge Wells, Kent
  • Location: Tunbridge Wells, Kent
12 minutes ago, Neilsouth said:

Am I the only one who really doesn't care how long the snow lasts, as long a it snows heavy over night and gives a decent covering? - Haven't seen that for years down this way

A nice covering would be good to look at for a short while - if GFS verifies and its all gone by Thursday - I could live with that. When it hangs around and just turns into ice - it's not as pleasant.

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Posted
  • Location: HARROW WEALD NORTH WEST LONDON
  • Location: HARROW WEALD NORTH WEST LONDON

The cold is nailed on and will be cold enough for 100% snow when it falls 

From Sunday morning onwards will be about radar watching and lampost watching 

Showers light medium and heavy if you catch one will stick instantly 

It will feel baltic

 

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Posted
  • Location: Brockham, near Dorking, Surrey. 75m ASL.
  • Location: Brockham, near Dorking, Surrey. 75m ASL.
43 minutes ago, lawrenk said:

2018 was, compared to the immediate years before, good here but still left me feeling frustrated given the set up. We did OK from the showers on the Monday evening, giving us 3 cms or   so but then nothing more until Fridays low came up, when it turned out we were a bit too far to the East, giving us no more than 2 or 3 cms again.

It also emphasised that, even in an extreme set up like that, the strength of the sun by late Feb, early March really makes it hard to keep snow on the ground, in the far south at least. That’s why it’s good we’re getting (hopefully) this cold spell before it’s too late.

That's what made 'The Beast' so rare - in early and mid-March we had several consecutive freezing days because the sky was grey for much of the time.  Unheard of in mid-March here in the far south.  Photo from 18 March at -2C (max).

 

 

DSC01488.jpeg

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Posted
  • Location: NW LONDON
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, sleet, Snow
  • Location: NW LONDON
19 minutes ago, Hurricane Squad said:

That get's less annoying every time someone says it

Xander

lol well some fear a four day cold spell and then the Atlantic comes in.

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Posted
  • Location: Godalming
  • Location: Godalming
54 minutes ago, stainesbloke said:

Yes, if temperatures by day hit 3°C, then snow is pretty pointless as it will just turn to a wet, slushy mess. Hopefully not the case, this time


I would imagine that the models aren’t taking into account snowcover which would help bring the temperature down a degree or two, and of course evaporative cooling in any of the beefier showers that make it inland.

 

Another point that is well worth considering and we have seen this in easterlies in the past, is that the models tend to struggle with this kind of setup and default with bringing the Atlantic through, I fully expect that they have got this wrong for the time being and will keep getting pushed back into FI with potential upgrades in the short term to the severity of the cold and features which will appear at short notice.

Edited by Weather Wonder
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