South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards

[eastangliawx]

Is lowestoft still looking good or am I out of the picture?

Need to know if its worth waking up early for

 

Edited February 7, 2021 by samwx

[kold weather]

10 minutes ago, wellington boot said:

I agree that this is a sensible attitude at the moment given where you both are. I would be living more in hope than expectation over there.

But what has changed that you are now less optimistic than you were earlier today? 

I have never been hugely optimistic about it. I think the difference now is I'm very confident that any streamer won't make it here now whereas it was a little less certain this morning.

Also the models have weakened the convection further west tomorrow since this morning as well. Plus very little chance of any surprise from south-west on Tuesday and no true breakdown = no snow for myself this cold spell.

I can't complain, had a decent whack two weeks ago so I'm not too needy for it!

Edited February 7, 2021 by kold weather

[Edwardmjg]

2 minutes ago, snowsummer said:

Where is your location?

Elham valley, SE Kent.

 

[UKSupercell]

17 minutes ago, Mizzle said:

Must admit I am feeling a bit downcast ( I know, I know. I shouldn't look at the apps ) as I too am NE Hants ( Fleet) and reading between the lines with my limited knowledge, it's not looking as hopeful now. Even my outside temp seems to have stalled- in fact it's just gone up by about 0.3°

 

14 minutes ago, kold weather said:

I'd brace yourself to get literally 0cms this entire week I'm afraid, I think we are stuffed this far west.

Small chance maybe tomorrow  evening in any arcing band and there is still the wildcard of a streamer, but I'd rate our odds of getting one strong enough at maybe 5-10%. I'm sure there will be one, but its gonna whiff out before it gets close to us.

Probably 50-50 if we even get a dusting now mate 

Come on lads keep the faith! We've gotta try and stay positive.....I had a good feeling about this week just a couple days ago. I think we will be unlucky to not see at least one slight covering of snow. Whether it's tomorrow, Monday, Tues or later in the week....I'm sure snow will fall....and settle. 

Haslemere and the South Downs hills always seem to get snow when Bordon/Liss/Petersfield are more marginal, so I'm sure parts of our neck of the woods will see something, although it'll be cold enough anyway for lower levels to get snow. Regardless, we ain't Cornwall, and this cold spell is only just beginning, so don't write it off just yet!!!!  

[Stu_London]

3 minutes ago, wellington boot said:

What do you mean when you say ppn is really pepping up if you then say it doesn't look too good for heavy stuff? 

I don't think this will be marginal a few hours from now, and there's plenty coming for many and heaps for lucky ones. Stay patient.

Its pepping from really light stuff it was showing an hours ago. 

Separately, I was pointing out that you don't really needs yellows and reds to get a good accumulation of ppn - based on the early January (non) event.

Sorry if it didnt make a lot of sense - its quite late now!!

[wellington boot]

10 minutes ago, Sno' problem said:

You are in one of the prime areas for this set-up, I'm intrigued to see how well you do in the coming days.

Yes I hope so. I'll be posting on here and will probably even manage a few reports if it turns into a terrible disappointment.

[snowsummer]

Just now, Edwardmjg said:

Elham valley, SE Kent.

 

Yes. Sorry. Saw on your other post after i asked. Hope it reaches me soon  i can barely keep my eyes open!

[Maidstone marginal]

If this turns out good, then I think it will be a first in my 40 odd years lifetime in south east. Hours of steady rain turning to drifting snow? I've never known that 

[wellington boot]

4 minutes ago, kold weather said:

I have never been hugely optimistic about it. I think the difference now is I'm very confident that any streamer won't make it here now whereas it was a little less certain this morning.

Also the models have weakened the convection further west tomorrow since this morning as well. Plus very little chance of any surprise from south-west on Tuesday and no true breakdown = no snow for myself this cold spell.

I can't complain, had a decent whack two weeks ago so I'm not too needy for it!

Ok, reasonable. Why don't you think the streamers will make it? I've been assuming there would be a few surprises further west with such strong winds available to blow the showers through and such low pressure generally.

[masked_firefly]

Well the other half has just woken me up when he's come up to bed. 
 

Had a curtain twitch as he woke me up... almost 2am and nothing

I'm about 4 miles outside of Ipswich. Please tell me it's still coming? I've got a 10 year old who's been eagerly watching the predicted amounts like a hawk over the last 24 hours or so and who thinks he will be going sledging and clearing the driveway with a shovel come Sunday morning! 
 

 

[kold weather]

1 minute ago, UKSupercell said:

 

Come on lads keep the faith! We've gotta try and stay positive.....I had a good feeling about this week just a couple days ago. I think we will be unlucky to not see at least one slight covering of snow. Whether it's tomorrow, Monday, Tues or later in the week....I'm sure snow will fall....and settle. 

Haslemere and the South Downs hills always seem to get snow when Bordon/Liss/Petersfield are more marginal, so I'm sure parts of our neck of the woods will see something, although it'll be cold enough anyway for lower levels to get snow. Regardless, we ain't Cornwall, and this cold spell is only just beginning, so don't write it off just yet!!!!  

I think a dusting maybe possible, but I honestly think you need to be prepared for nothing, that is a very realistic outcome now and it's something a fair few models are now showing for us down here. Barring something rather unexpected happening (can never totally rule it out) I think I've and frozen ground will be our biggest bugbear for the next day or two.

I'm hoping it can stick around into next weekend as I think there could be some great wintry scenes without snow as well.

[North Easterly Breeze]

Night all. Can’t wait any longer! 

I’m expecting the heaviest snow from 10am onwards looking at all the reports, god knows how long for tomorrow, it looks very good for east Essex and most of Kent looking at the live radars. 

[echodelta21]

Time for bed....although there's a hint of sleet in the heavier bursts here even now.

Reports from Mother in Biggin that it's also trying to turn up there too are encouraging.

I shall look forward to the morning...Night all and good luck

[snowrye]

Just now, North Easterly Breeze said:

Night all. Can’t wait any longer! 

I’m expecting the heaviest snow from 10am onwards looking at all the reports, god knows how long for tomorrow, it looks very good for east Essex and most of Kent looking at the live radars. 

Im hanging on, just, lol

[Mizzle]

17 minutes ago, wellington boot said:

I agree that this is a sensible attitude at the moment given where you both are. I would be living more in hope than expectation over there.

But what has changed that you are now less optimistic than you were earlier today? 

Well I'm not brilliant at reading charts but I have got quite good at reading between the lines - and in my area we often do very well in marginal setups. Always seemed just east enough. But. I am watching the temps creep up a little on my weather station, dewpoints also not good. And having looked at wind direction it all adds up to this time unlucky. Albeit I am well aware it's science not luck 

However. I do have orange sky to my east.  #optimistic 

Edited February 7, 2021 by Mizzle
Typo

[Steve Kent]

From Dutch weather service website, translated into English.

Looks like similar snow predictions to East Anglia / South East coastal areas. Very very strong winds. Not sure what their threshold is for a 'red' alert - it might be they have a couple of these every year.

[A Frayed Knot]

Awesome to see you get your very first look at falling snow. I'm in Wales and had 2 shows of it so far and both on a Sunday. First attempt was OK and lasted for 3 days on the ground 2nd attempt a week back today was OK but was rather a blink and the covering was gone the next day. You lot are going to be spoilt and fair play you deserve it. Some streamers setting up all week and making it to us in the west and our better chance is Wednesday into Thursday but b4 then we are in the game.. Love to see some pics and videos tomorrow take care and enjoy from a cold but wet Taffy land

[chionomaniac]

10 minutes ago, Tom Jarvis said:

Chino how much do you think is Sussex ppl can expect

It’s so difficult to forecast Tom.  I would expect you to get at least 10cm, but more with convective streamer alignment 

thats where the difficulty arises.

[kold weather]

5 minutes ago, wellington boot said:

Ok, reasonable. Why don't you think the streamers will make it? I've been assuming there would be a few surprises further west with such strong winds available to blow the showers through and such low pressure generally.

Run the radar for the last two hours and watch the convection over S.london. notice how it does before getting down here?

Winds are Ene now and forcing is probably stronger now.

If it isnt getting this far west now, it's going to have little chance in weaker winds and less forcing along the estuary as there is presently. I think if you look at the high resolution models they weaken the radar returns over time as a result of that reducing energy.

Sorry I know it isn't the response we want. Keep an eye out on Sunday evening, modest chance if a dusting if it lines up, maybe 50% chance?

Edited February 7, 2021 by kold weather

[Maidstone marginal]

2 minutes ago, Steve Kent said:

From Dutch weather service website, translated into English.

Looks like similar snow predictions to East Anglia / South East coastal areas. Very very strong winds. Not sure what their threshold is for a 'red' alert - it might be they have a couple of these every year.

From what I can gather Netherlands has been barren of snow for as long as South east England. That's why they are going crazy over it

[Kentspur]

26 minutes ago, A Frayed Knot said:

Just popping in from my regional thread which is I'm going by my weather link that is very accurate for my area. Is going to hit your area around 3am or a little later and snowing constantly for 36 hours.. Enjoy 

Looks fantastic for most of us Thanks! Goodluck in Wales, still raining here in Dartford no sign of sleet will be back home in Gravesend/Northfleet borders at 6/6.30am though so reports will be from there from then

[Stu_London]

Think we are in transition at my location now - a lot more sleety than it was half and hour ago. 

[Mizzle]

11 minutes ago, UKSupercell said:

 

Come on lads keep the faith! We've gotta try and stay positive.....I had a good feeling about this week just a couple days ago. I think we will be unlucky to not see at least one slight covering of snow. Whether it's tomorrow, Monday, Tues or later in the week....I'm sure snow will fall....and settle. 

Haslemere and the South Downs hills always seem to get snow when Bordon/Liss/Petersfield are more marginal, so I'm sure parts of our neck of the woods will see something, although it'll be cold enough anyway for lower levels to get snow. Regardless, we ain't Cornwall, and this cold spell is only just beginning, so don't write it off just yet!!!!  

I had a good feeling too! I'm not quite throwing in the towel - and still excited for the far SE as I have family there. 

 

And I still have orange sky to my East which has often proven more reliable than the apps.

[Steve Kent]

10 minutes ago, Maidstone marginal said:

If this turns out good, then I think it will be a first in my 40 odd years lifetime in south east. Hours of steady rain turning to drifting snow? I've never known that 

Were you in Maidstone in Feb-Mar 2018? Here in Allington it was incredible. 30cm in drifts!

[alexisj9]

36 minutes ago, Ben M said:

No it's showing on land, just SW of Dover & NE of Folkestone on the latest two frames on the netweather radar.  Thinking about it now though it hasn't moved in those two frames so it might be one of those anoprop things or whatever they're called? I'm not sure. 

Ah capel, that makes sense.

Edited February 7, 2021 by alexisj9