South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards

[Lampostwatcher]

Feb 1991 was crazy 

Got sent home from school early 

Classrooms were to cold 

And nonstop heavy snow pilled up

 

[Speedbird]

6 minutes ago, weathergeek said:

Lovely looking charts although I do have a bit of concern that what was possible Snow for Sat then moved to Sunday and is now Mon afternoon and into Tuesday so is still at D5 when I was hoping to feel a bit more concrete by tomorrow but now won't feel confident until about Sat/Sun for Mon/Tues!!

My brother (another snow fan) @Chertseystreamer79 sent me some great pics yesterday as it was 12yrs since the foot dumping of snow we had in Feb 2009!!! It was mad!! And we also had snow a year ago yesterday too because we met up Box Hill where knew it would be a bit deeper!xx

Too early for the specifics regarding snow, especially 4/5 days out and with the models showing some elements of slight inconsistency re timings.

Just remember - all good things come to those that wait.

[Robbie Coldrain]

Still got to watch that milder air which is very close to the south and south east. Too close for comfort in my opinion.  

[Chertseystreamer79]

9 minutes ago, weathergeek said:

Lovely looking charts although I do have a bit of concern that what was possible Snow for Sat then moved to Sunday and is now Mon afternoon and into Tuesday so is still at D5 when I was hoping to feel a bit more concrete by tomorrow but now won't feel confident until about Sat/Sun for Mon/Tues!!

My brother (another snow fan) @Chertseystreamer79 sent me some great pics yesterday as it was 12yrs since the foot dumping of snow we had in Feb 2009!!! It was mad!! And we also had snow a year ago yesterday too because we met up Box Hill where knew it would be a bit deeper!xx

This would be dreamy....

[Chertseystreamer79]

10 minutes ago, jamesgold said:

Locations now show up on mobile!! Thank you to whoever sorted that

Indeed...excellent...bravo that man/woman!

[snowblind]

Love this update from the met office on the east of England forecast.

 "Snow showers spreading inland on Saturday night, heavier and more frequent on Sunday. Risk of coastal gales ."

[lassie23]

I already planted my carrots......DOH

[Snipper]

54 minutes ago, stainesbloke said:

62/63 was something else....nothing remotely compares to it since. Must have been amazing. I enjoyed seeing pics of the Thames frozen over in Staines and lots of people ice-skating on it. 10 years before I was born. 

I was 16.  It was blooming cold. Just think few had central heating, double glazing & insulation to roof and walls. So cold in your bedroom that ice completely obscured the view out of the window. You got dressed under the bed clothes. Think we a have all become somewhat softer. 

Edited February 3, 2021 by Snipper

[simonhall6]

The mods have added the location tab to mobile devices now, so that will help next week with the fingers crossed snow events

[SnowBear]

3 minutes ago, Snipper said:

I was 16.  It was booming cold. Just think few had central heating, double glazing & insulation to roof and walls. So cold in your bedroom that ice completely obscured the view out of the window. You got dressed under the bed clothes. Think we a have all become somewhat softer. 

I was born in '68 so didn't see 62/63, but some of the winters in the 70s and 80s were good even if not to the same scale. 

Icicles from gutter to floor, water butts frozen solid right through, and at my grandparents house half inch thick ice on the inside of the windows. No heating upstairs, only the Rayburn in the kitchen so you got dressed very quickly indeed and ran downstairs to the kitchen lol

Did have a bed warmer before getting into bed mind you, a 1960s UFO looking thing with a heat lamp inside plugged into a light fitting on a trailing lead! I distinctly remember one morning it had been snowing overnight and the window was slightly on the latch, and had snow flakes on the blankets in the morning. 

Oh, and schools stayed open unless the boiler broke down, the number of sacrifices and prayers given to the great god of boiler breakdowns was unbelievable. And we walked to school, none of this car business!

[Tom Quintavalle]

2 hours ago, Jimmyh said:

So here we go unbelievable ramping going on in MAD thread. Still not close enough for is to get massively excited as events like this are like hens teeth. I will sit on the fence till tomorrow evenings runs 

Morning all,

Hope yourselves and your Families, are well.

Although the 00z Runs are in the main pretty positive, for cold and wintry Weather to eventually filter down to our Region, like Jimmyh I remain cautious. I would also like to see another Day's worth of Model runs, before being confident about seeing any Snow.

I also totally agree with Alexis, regarding her comments Yesterday.

We may be perilously close to some marginal 850's, sitting just the other side of the Channel.

Agree with Matt's (Captain Shortwave), comments below:

Quote:

Sunday

At the moment it looks pretty slack with the same front wrapped around the region. However the chart shows this as a decayed feature so likely to just leave a legacy of cloud. That biting easterly is probably as far south as Lincolnshire at this point with that train of precipitation still piling into the north east.

The Synoptics at the moment, remind me of early January 1982. The preceding December (1981), had been very cold and wintry but the Weather turned much milder between Christmas and the New Year. But the cold air was never far away from our Region, lurking away to the North, and finally came back South on 6th January. By the time the Cold Front had reached our Region, there was no Ppn left on it but it did introduce a bitterly cold airstream, from Scandinavia.

A Day later, An Atlantic Low tried to push up from the S.W, , against the very cold air in place over the U.K .Rain readily turned to Snow, as it moved inland across the S.W., and caused one of the most monumental Blizzards seen in the S.W./Midlands, in the 20th Century.

See Archive Charts below, of how the Synoptics of that spell unfolded.

              TUES 5th JAN 1982                                  WEDS 6th JAN 1982

 

                THURS 7th JAN 1982                              FRI 8th JAN 1982

  

Below, I've copied/pasted the following extract, from Trevor Harley's excellent Weather in Britain, Website (Emboldened for extract, only).

1982 A good winter continues. It began mild and wet at the New Year, but then became very cold from the 5th to the 15th with some record low temperatures. December's cold air was never far away, and with anticyclones in place over Greenland and Scandinavia a cold front moved south, pushed down by northeasterlies, with cold air slowly reintroduced from the 3rd. The battle between very cold and mild air in the south led to blizzards; the Midlands and Wales had 30-50 cm of snow on the 8-9th with easterly gales. Many places were cut off (e.g. Torquay and Weymouth). Some drifts were 20' high. Lasting 36 hours, this was one of the most severe blizzards of the century across the Southwest and Midlands. Throughout the snowfall temperatures hovered around -3C."

It's still a long way off but I see the 00z ECM Run, was suggesting a similar scenario to that January 1982 Event, in the latter stages of its overnight run, with a continuing theme of disrupting Lows, to our West, on quite a Southerly tracking Jet Stream.

Back to the "here and now", and more unwanted Rain is currently affecting the South of our Region.

Regarding the potential Snowfall for our Region, hopefully beginning on Sunday. I don't think it wise to start speculating on likely distribution of any Snowfall, just yet.

Returning to the comments of Jimmyh above, best wait for another Day's worth of runs, before trying to "pin the tail on the Donkey".

The overnight runs, now seen to be converging on a way forward, Synoptically but IMO, microscale detail needs to wait a little longer.

Regards,

Tom. 

 

Edited February 3, 2021 by TomSE12

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Packing parcels at yard and the rain is tropical! Very heavy big drops and very mild feeling.. Working up a sweat! 

[Icebox]

Ahh 1991 yes indeed what a great February that was. I lived in East london at the time, left for work at 05.30 and it had just started to snow... I didn't take much notice really as it wasn't as rare back then. I Left London E15 just after six heading to Kent with about a dozen deliveries to make it was still only snowing moderately.

By the time I had got to Sidcup no more than 10 or so miles away it was chucking it down... huge flakes the size of old 10 pence pieces. The snow got lighter the further into Kent I got, in fact it had stopped by the time I got to Ashford with around 4 inches.

On the way back up the A2 I was surprised to see snowploughs working in tandem to keep the road open at the London end! I seem to remember being pretty cross at the time because I had managed to get to every delivery across Kent in a 17 tonne truck but most places were shut because their staff couldn't get in.

8 inches of level snow had fallen during the day back home... definitely one of the better events I've seen along with 79,87 and 2010.

There is a twist to this story though... 2 days later I flew out of Gatwick to Tenerife for a week long Club 18-30 reunion. Sunny,72°, beaches, booze and women... and there was me missing the snow back home!!

Sorry if I've rambled on and bored you... happy memories. 

[Northernlights]

2 minutes ago, SnowBear said:

I was born in '68 so didn't see 62/63, but some of the winters in the 70s and 80s were good even if not to the same scale. 

Icicles from gutter to floor, water butts frozen solid right through, and at my grandparents house half inch thick ice on the inside of the windows. No heating upstairs, only the Rayburn in the kitchen so you got dressed very quickly indeed and ran downstairs to the kitchen lol

Did have a bed warmer before getting into bed mind you, a 1960s UFO looking thing with a heat lamp inside plugged into a light fitting on a trailing lead! I distinctly remember one morning it had been snowing overnight and the window was slightly on the latch, and had snow flakes on the blankets in the morning. 

Oh, and schools stayed open unless the boiler broke down, the number of sacrifices and prayers given to the great god of boiler breakdowns was unbelievable. And we walked to school, none of this car business!

Just as it is today here in a draughty old estate farmhouse ice on the windows(no double glazing) these past few days ,upstairs hall temperature last night 5c.We have oil fired Rayburn so two rooms warm but open fires in others all in gable ends  so  most heat goes outside through wall.

Have the latest electric blanket on bed however which is great.

And yes it feels like we are having an old fashioned sixties winter especially if February and early March are cold and frosty.Part of  me wonders if along with end of solar minimum,SSW,weakpolar vortex the lack of ground vehicle and aircraft pollution are giving it a nudge into  cold territory Witness the the more intense colours in the sky and colourful sunsets/rises of late

[Hotspur62]

Very wise words from Tom above.I too will reserve judgement until tomorrow night but the trend on the overnight runs is positive for the SE and only hope these continue over next 34 hours.I feel we only need a 50 mile shift now as we have had a shift overnight and then it really might be time to put the beers/champagne in the fridgeAs I say though let’s get through next 24 hours and hope the models firm up for the SE who would then join the nation in a potentially very cold and snowy spell
 

stay safe

 

[Snipper]

19 minutes ago, SnowBear said:

I was born in '68 so didn't see 62/63, but some of the winters in the 70s and 80s were good even if not to the same scale. 

Icicles from gutter to floor, water butts frozen solid right through, and at my grandparents house half inch thick ice on the inside of the windows. No heating upstairs, only the Rayburn in the kitchen so you got dressed very quickly indeed and ran downstairs to the kitchen lol

Did have a bed warmer before getting into bed mind you, a 1960s UFO looking thing with a heat lamp inside plugged into a light fitting on a trailing lead! I distinctly remember one morning it had been snowing overnight and the window was slightly on the latch, and had snow flakes on the blankets in the morning. 

Oh, and schools stayed open unless the boiler broke down, the number of sacrifices and prayers given to the great god of boiler breakdowns was unbelievable. And we walked to school, none of this car business!

And no internet. How was it possible for the population of the UK to survive? One of life’s  little mysteries?

[Floatylight]

1 hour ago, Lampostwatcher said:

Feb 1991 was crazy 

Got sent home from school early 

Classrooms were to cold 

And nonstop heavy snow pilled up

 

Yes we got sent home too.

Mainly because of all the buses that were used to my school. 

[Floatylight]

Yes all the snow and temps for  sun,Mon ,now back!

And now for Tues aswell on the nw forcast. 

Edited February 3, 2021 by Floatylight

[terryall]

I was a kid in 62/63 and remember the snow very well. I lived not far from Tom SE12 back then in Charlton and we had snow piled up against the back door to about 3 or 4 foot. Our school never closed and, eventually, we were told not to throw snow balls as some were like packed ice and very hard. We still got thrown out of the class at playtime so we just slipped our way around and kept falling over. Great fun.

[Captain Shortwave]

Much better set of runs this morning for this part of the world. Most if not all of us into the colder air during Sunday. We will need to watch out for anything pushing out of the continent during that period as snow events like this do occur quite often. However we will not have any real confidence until probably two days before the event.

 

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Torrential now.. The rivers =( =( no warning from the met?? 

Also.. High res very very poor with this system over the south today.. GFS actually did pretty well which concerns me.. 

[SnowBear]

3 minutes ago, Floatylight said:

Yes we got sent home too.

Mainly because of all the buses that were used to my school. 

My son was just starting school then, made a sledge the year before, and that's how he got taken to school, on the sledge. Loved it. 

[kold weather]

The good news is the trend is heading increasingly weaker with that Iberian low which means there is a much reduced risk of milder air coming up, even the GFS ensembles are starting to finally drop that idea.

The next uncertainty is exactly where that low sets up.

This is really key for our area and will be the difference between scattered snow showers away from maybe the Wash, or a full blown set-up that sets up streamers. 

Still we aqre definately getting closer now to seeing snow showers.

[PLANET THANET]

amazing all this talk of snow for the east coast at the weekend and yet the met office have us in down for rain in thanet even with them showing a north/easterly wind, oh well at least I can enjoy the photos of you lucky people that get some snow.....good luck peeps

[Snipper]

20 minutes ago, Floatylight said:

Yes we got sent home too.

Mainly because of all the buses that were used to my school. 

Those who rode a bike got sent home first. My trip about 5 miles that went across Chelmsford.