South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards

[abovefreezing]

1 minute ago, Matty88 said:

Does anyone get the sense the models are potentially (and hopefully) undercooking the convective potential for tomorrow in particular? Some are all about the front, others are factoring some convection in elsewhere (North and West of the front). You do have to wonder... I’m not convinced this is a SE corner only event yet. 

You wouldn't be saying that if you were in the SE corner! C'mon, now, objectivity!

 

[mattneal]

1 minute ago, Neilsouth said:

No, look at this

 

Must say that chart doesn't look very good for most of the SE. It also looks wrong for the time now let alone in 12 hours time

[Froze were the Days]

Steady rain here and temps slowly starting to fall - 6.2c now and a breeze starting to pick up...I reckon this will be the last time for a week or so we'll see temperatures as high as this if the models are to believed in the medium to long term!

[NO LONGER POSTING]

 

Just now, Matty88 said:

Does anyone get the sense the models are potentially (and hopefully) undercooking the convective potential for tomorrow in particular? Some are all about the front, others are factoring some convection in elsewhere (North and West of the front). You do have to wonder... I’m not convinced this is a SE corner only event yet. 

Almost 100% yes... EURO4 has already under done the PPN on radar now! 

Pouring here now... 

Streamers/snow showers are almost impossible to pin down and forecast. We have been told over the last few days that there could be significant snow along the Thames and other places out East. 

A real now cast situation over the next few days and some places even inland will join in the fun if not lots of us! 

 

Cant understand the negative posts. World is full of negative all the time the last thing I want is it creeping into this world class thread 

[smith25]

I'm concerned that Braintree is going to miss out of the heavy snow by 10 miles.  Come on surely the main heavy band can move west a tad and give us the heavy stuff here.

[fulham snow]

1 minute ago, lawrenk said:

Looking forward to a few drinks tonight to get “in the mood” for a late one. Nice bottle of red, with maybe a cheeky glass or two of scotch after. What are anyone elses plans?

Dry January

[Snipper]

12 minutes ago, Dami said:

Got some rain.

No matter, I'm having a nice steak dinner

Mmmnn nice. A good one?  
 

I’m a vegan apart from the meat, eggs, cheese etc.  A salad is nice from time to time. A pork pie goes well with it. 

[fulham snow]

Just now, fulham snow said:

Dry January

February 

[ptow]

14 minutes ago, North Easterly Breeze said:

Bloody nora, just look at those next 10 day temperatures.

They are feels like 

[A Wintry Mix]

1 minute ago, fulham snow said:

Dry January

It's February 6th

[suffolkboy_]

Even though i'm in one of the sweet spots, slap bang in the middle of the amber warning area, I have a horrible feeling that most of the snow is going to end up further east and south and be a Kent/Essex only affair tomorrow. Call me pessimistic but have been disappointed too many times before.

A very interesting week coming up. With winds falling lighter towards the end of the week and deep cold well entrenched, we are going to see some severe overnight frosts over those areas with good snow cover.

Edited February 6, 2021 by suffolkboy_

[Snipper]

15 minutes ago, North Easterly Breeze said:

Bloody nora, just look at those next 10 day temperatures.

When I was young I always had snow on my birthday. Well at least twice. 

[mulzy]

5 minutes ago, Neilsouth said:

No, look at this

 

That looks very disappointing for quite a lot of the region including the populated London area.

Those in the amber warning zone will most likely do well.

[Hammer]

2 minutes ago, smith25 said:

I'm concerned that Braintree is going to miss out of the heavy snow by 10 miles.  Come on surely the main heavy band can move west a tad and give us the heavy stuff here.

Yes similar here Chelmsford in the Amber zone and me not. Same for you Braintree out and Witham in. Could be a difficult night if that is indeed the snow line.

[Mr_Pessimistic]

4 minutes ago, Neilsouth said:

No, look at this

 

Err, yes there has.  Unless you live in Kent. No frontal snow now for Norfolk and Suffolk according to the hi res models.  So yet another carrot chasing affair as expected. Thought this would happen right at the end. Not counting on any showers as I live in the snowless triangle. Yawn.

[danm]

30 minutes ago, john mac1 said:

Really don’t what to expect here. It’s going to be a long night of radar watching! 

I think we’ll get snow, but the heaviest of it will be east of us. Will come down to radar watching. 

[tight isobar]

37 minutes ago, Snowflake Queen said:

Rain here in Uxbridge at the moment ...but from 1am maybe some snow  

.  @uxbridge

[NewEra21]

It's almost time to just forget what all the model pricip charts and apps show. The radar will be everyone's best friend from tonight onwards. Surprises will pop up all over the place!! 

[Kentspur]

32 minutes ago, dallas said:

Off to work soon, hope the trains get me home tomorrow morning 

You've probably bumped into me a few times if you get the train to Greenhithe a fun night shift in store for me tonight with an adverse weather warning out some trains cancelled but so far none of our area

[Djdazzle]

5 minutes ago, smith25 said:

I'm concerned that Braintree is going to miss out of the heavy snow by 10 miles.  Come on surely the main heavy band can move west a tad and give us the heavy stuff here.

No we will be fine. That line is an estimate. Won’t go from heavy to light as you cross it!

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Just now, tight isobar said:

.  @uxbridge

Born in Hillingdon Started my younger years in West Drayton.. Can I join da crew? 

[SHM040519]

Heavy rain started in canterbury. Will be amazing to see what it looks like here in 12 hours!

[Captain Shortwave]

Euro 4 to midnight 

East Suffolk and north Kent the top spots. Areas further west have to wait until the showers really get going but signs of these pushing well inland and quite frequent too.

[kold weather]

12z AROME locally is a bit...meh it has to be said compared to what quite a few other models are forecasting. Again I think its because its placing the upper low just a touch closer which keeps the winds NE through Monday afternoon out to 51hrs at least. Hopefully they will bend ENE soon after that to bring the rest of the region into play more with the convective banding and streamers.

12z ICON for example is already well ENE by 46hrs. Those extra 6-12hrs difference could make a HUGE difference further west for snowfall chances.

By the way, a bit of advice, don't get yourself wedded to one particular models just because it gives you the heaviest/least snowfall. At this point no one model will have an advantage over the other, regardless of resolution due to just how tight the differences between a snowfest and a minor event actually are.

[Downpour]

1 minute ago, danm said:

I think we’ll get snow, but the heaviest of it will be east of us. Will come down to radar watching. 

I think 3-4cm Chingford/Waltham Abbey maybe 5-6cm in the favoured elevated spots in Epping Forest itself. 
 

Somewhat underwhelming given what might have been but we are in a better place than those further west. 
 

But a few chances next week as the weather stays cold and the winds stays easterly.