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South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards


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I suppose not really weather related but I just wanted to say thank you all so much.  I've really really enjoyed following the posts today.  I am awaiting Open Heart Surgery sometime this year and you

Oh my f**king god. How many times does it need saying? 1. The amber doesn't expire until tomorrow midday 2. Widespread heavy showers & streamers are going to follow later, tonight,

Evening. Here's my estimated #snow depths for England and Wales that I expect until noon on Monday, using a blend of high resolution models.

Posted Images

Posted
  • Location: Tunbridge Wells, Kent
  • Location: Tunbridge Wells, Kent
    1 minute ago, abovefreezing said:

    Heh, just covering all bases, perhaps. If it comes true, We can line up to kill! 🙂

    I've seen easterlies implode at 72 hours - but never at 6 hours

    Think we will be ok

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  • Location: Brentwood, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Brentwood, Essex

    Just looked at numerous models and it seems to be less of a feature than want I was hoping and doesn’t get far in land, where I live in Brentwood only get the scraps which is accurate to what the Met office now has me down for (was 6 hours of heavy snow then 5 of light snow) now it’s only a few hours of light snow and then a few hours of dry. Tomorrow night there’s seems to be more of a chance with showers and streamers.

    still time for upgrades though f🤞 

    7AB05686-0CE3-404E-8E73-2A99BC8BE2D2.png

    4F224B41-4857-4D6D-ADF4-3DA47BEB70AB.png

    3BAA358B-0063-4643-90FA-6F8B77D45E48.png

    2A8D7D8E-2059-4DBD-B529-1272A40F90AD.png

    A4659FF6-4106-40E1-89B2-D7FA05A1477D.png

    Edited by simonhall6
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    Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(south east england)
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(south east england)
    1 minute ago, Chiltern_Blizzard said:

    ARPERGE for tomorrow afternoon. You can see it has drifted further South East compared to a few days back where the spread was far further west. Im hoping im suprised. 

    Later in day looks like some showers to pop up and Monday some potential too. 

     

    Screenshot_20210206-162628_Chrome.jpg

    The convective shower activity =possibilities.. are endless... that’s one stiff sheer easterly @incoming...banded activity is looking ripe as a peach 🍑👊👊👊👊

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    Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
    2 minutes ago, Chiltern_Blizzard said:

    ARPERGE for tomorrow afternoon. You can see it has drifted further South East compared to a few days back where the spread was far further west. Im hoping im suprised. 

    Later in day looks like some showers to pop up and Monday some potential too. 

     

    Screenshot_20210206-162628_Chrome.jpg

    Yesterday it didnt even make it to me. 

    So it's an improvement since then.

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    Posted
  • Location: Coney Hall Village 260ft asl, North West Kent
  • Location: Coney Hall Village 260ft asl, North West Kent
    1 minute ago, Paul Sherman said:

    In all seriousness keep an eye out for some strange skies tomorrow. Have seen loads of pictures from Spain, France, Switzerland of the Sahara Dust in the pictures of clouds. If this makes it north with the low pressure pushing it towards the Uk could be some strange colours of landscapes. Think  Nick F touched on this possibility the other day

    Interesting Got any pics Paul.

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    Posted
  • Location: Kent,Ashford
  • Weather Preferences: Love heat & thunderstorms, but despise Winter
  • Location: Kent,Ashford

    sorry guys its not going to snow tomorrow, in fact we will have an exceptional heatwave of 20 - 25 degrees i've already got my sun lounge out and got the sun screen. The source for this is my own imagination with no sources whatsoever.

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Chiltern
  • Location: Chiltern
    1 minute ago, tight isobar said:

    The convective shower activity =possibilities.. are endless... that’s one stiff sheer easterly @incoming...banded activity is looking ripe as a peach 🍑👊👊👊👊

    Fingers crossed. Really hoping for a covering and more in the week. 

    1 minute ago, Snowman. said:

    Yesterday it didnt even make it to me. 

    So it's an improvement since then.

    Hope you get some! 

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    Posted
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley
    2 minutes ago, Biggin said:

    Interesting Got any pics Paul.

    Yep

    146490498_1041787949638087_7180017017714772642_o.jpg

    147527610_10222213388262611_5129307560886549281_o.jpg

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    Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex, Right on the South coast!
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and Icy weather, and extremes.
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex, Right on the South coast!
    1 hour ago, Ian Docwra said:

    I really wish they would stop saying "temperatures will struggle" - no they won't; they are not living entities, they are simply measurements and cannot try to do anything. 

    Be happy mate! its been a great winter for interesting synoptics. your posts all seem a bit down. Personally I'm quite excited for the incoming cold period. I am sure you are too really 🙂

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    Posted
  • Location: Southend-On-Sea, South East Essex.
  • Location: Southend-On-Sea, South East Essex.
    2 minutes ago, Paul Sherman said:

    Yep

    146490498_1041787949638087_7180017017714772642_o.jpg

    147527610_10222213388262611_5129307560886549281_o.jpg

    Could get some red snow!

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    Posted
  • Location: SE London
  • Location: SE London
    5 hours ago, snow raven said:

    Thanks Paul.  I have everything crossed.   I don't think I could cope with another disappointment 🤞🤞🌨☃️

    i wouldn't be too disappointed L-A there's always me about to cheer things up 😄 

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    Posted
  • Location: Galleywood, Chelmsford - 43m ASL
  • Location: Galleywood, Chelmsford - 43m ASL
    2 minutes ago, Norfolk_N_chance said:

    Just dropped the wife off to work next to Wells beach.....the East wind is blowing and bone chilling!

    I love Wells - stay at the Crown Hotel every year for a long weekend so we can walk from Stiffkey to Burnham Overy Staithe... wouldn't want to be there right now though...

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    Posted
  • Location: Bromley, SE London (60m ASL)
  • Location: Bromley, SE London (60m ASL)

    If the BBC really did say “might clip the SE” then that’s worrying. There’s a good chance that’s inaccurate - I reckon we’ll know more by 10pm forecast. They can’t possibly not stress uncertainty then

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    Posted
  • Location: West London
  • Weather Preferences: Winter : Cold, snow, frost, fog. Summer : Sunny N wind + clear skies
  • Location: West London
    5 minutes ago, leemondo said:

    Just been informed by my almost 8 year old, that I am to check the weather at 1 or 2am and if its snowing I have to wake him, real danger of him wanting to go out in it too! 

    I am tempted to stay up tho, this doesn't happen very often and after so many near misses and barren winters, it will be worth the wait! Good luck everyone 😊

    Wake them up at your peril! 😉 I was woken for snow at the same age and never went back to sleep l as I was to busy looking out the curtains every few minutes until I was let out to play in it. Several decades later I still do the same 🤣

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    Posted
  • Location: SE London
  • Location: SE London
    5 hours ago, Paul said:

    It's from the UKV model, so if the model doesn't expect there to be any precipitation at the time, the forecast will show 0% risk of snow. In reality, if there were to be precipitation, then it would be back to 95% 🙂

    The UKV is an excellent model (the main hi-res model the Met Office use), but like any other model, it'll never be bang on in showery setups. So, I'd definitely recommend using the forecast as a guide and then the radar in the shorter term to see what's going on. 

     

    380radar2.jpg
    WWW.NETWEATHER.TV

    Live weather radar for the UK including weather type to track whether rain, sleet or snow is falling. Updated every 5 minutes.

     

    thanks @Paul . its always good to see some sanity in the explanation of the forecasting. I have seen a change from 90% to nothing in a refresh of the 10 day ppn forecast and never really took it as 'gospel' i really am a firm believer that its a case of putting your head out the window and seeing how it is 😄 

    Edited by MAF
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    Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
    11 minutes ago, simonhall6 said:

    Just looked at numerous models and it seems to be less of a feature than want I was hoping and doesn’t get far in land, where I live in Brentwood only get the scraps which is accurate to what the Met office now has me down for (was 6 hours of heavy snow then 5 of light snow) now it’s only a few hours of light snow and then a few hours of dry. Tomorrow night there’s seems to be more of a chance with showers and streamers.

    still time for upgrades though f🤞 

    7AB05686-0CE3-404E-8E73-2A99BC8BE2D2.png

    4F224B41-4857-4D6D-ADF4-3DA47BEB70AB.png

    3BAA358B-0063-4643-90FA-6F8B77D45E48.png

    2A8D7D8E-2059-4DBD-B529-1272A40F90AD.png

    A4659FF6-4106-40E1-89B2-D7FA05A1477D.png

    You can also see the zone of lower snowfall that a few models showed earlier on near London as the band that arcs further west forms too far west for them but they are also too west to really benefit to as high degree with the snowfall coming in from the North Sea.

    Also clear hints at a streamer for a short while in the morning down the Thames beofre the winds bend back more NE for a short while until that band has cleared through in the evening. 

    I think there is a good chance of a streamer setting up on Sunday night, however how strong it is and how far WSW it extends, hard to know at this point.

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    Posted
  • Location: Thorpe Surrey (About 1 mile from Thorpe park)
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, more snow and even more snow..Oh and I love a good old Thunderstorm
  • Location: Thorpe Surrey (About 1 mile from Thorpe park)

    High of 7.5c here.. 

    Temp now on the way down 7.3c 

    DP 5.9c 

    Winds E/NE

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    Posted
  • Location: Rochester, Kent
  • Location: Rochester, Kent
    13 minutes ago, jamesgold said:

    If the BBC really did say “might clip the SE” then that’s worrying. There’s a good chance that’s inaccurate - I reckon we’ll know more by 10pm forecast. They can’t possibly not stress uncertainty then

    I've been watching nearly every BBC news channel forecast since lunchtime (well the Saturday night/Sunday part) and I didn't hear that phrase used once. The uncertainty stressed was the northern & western extent of the band but it was confidently expressed that Essex Kent etc would be affected by heavy snow & blizzard like conditions & 'potentially' extending into the London area etc too. That's been the gist from the last few forecasts

    Edited by Ben M
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    Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-sea, East Sussex (11.8M ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, snow, and winter storms
  • Location: Bexhill-on-sea, East Sussex (11.8M ASL)

    Always the toughest part this, the agonising wait!

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    Posted
  • Location: Medway - 125m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Hot summers, snowy winters and thunderstorms!
  • Location: Medway - 125m ASL

    The predicted rain hasn't really happened in any significant way yet. Not sure if that's a good or bad thing.

     

    Edit: it's chucking it down.

    Edited by Lauren
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