South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards

[80sWeather]

4 minutes ago, Ben Sainsbury said:

Just posted on the MOD thread with pictures, but the ICON-EU 09z run is slightly further NW and produces a little more snow compared to its 06z run.

Argh no don’t make me look in there again...

[Mark wheeler]

14 minutes ago, IanT said:

You can’t work it out at all to the level of precision you are seeking. The system/boundaries might easily be +/- 30 miles from where they are modelled right now. Counties - yes, counties plus N/E/S/W - yes, postcode areas - possibly, postcode districts & below = no chance. In truth it’s a radar/now-cast situation from this point.

Yep agree , just having fun trying Ito work is out , It’s all part of the fun ( The Chase ) i will keep my expectations low so anything more is a bonus .

[TheGate]

The Metoffice warning got extended West this morning and now just includes us. We did very well out of the December 2010 streamer, so not too surprised, especially with a bit of altitude. We seem to have topped out at 6.2c, will be watching the radar tonight.

[alexisj9]

41 minutes ago, Hammer said:

I am hearing reports that the EU won't let the snow out of the Netherlands tonight because its not fair that the UK gets it. They are saying the snow is their snow and apparently its in the contract.

Lol

[Mark]

10 minutes ago, Snipper said:

But isn’t your view influenced by the data being fed to you?

That's an interesting take. 

The MO app changes every 5 minutes or so, but that must be because there are so many numbers to crunch from so much data that it just auto updates with what it knows at the time. 

At least with the radar it's a generic overview which changes less often. I suppose when it does change its more notable, though. 

[snow raven]

Well, instead of dusting off my sledge, I'm going to dust off my glasses.   I wear contact lenses all day so don't have much need for my glasses. 

However, I am going to have to be able to see our lamppost and what is falling from the sky come 3am, so I'm off to dig out the windowlean and clean them till the sparkle

[lawrenk]

9 minutes ago, Ben Sainsbury said:

Just posted on the MOD thread with pictures, but the ICON-EU 09z run is slightly further NW and produces a little more snow compared to its 06z run.

To my eyes, that latest ICON almost exactly matches the latest MO warning zones. Does anyone know if, other than the own in house models, they use this mostly?

[Snipper]

2 minutes ago, 80sWeather said:

If I watch the Met office weather forecast then the data I’m receiving is being put across to me with human interpretation.

For example it may snow or it could reach here etc.

An app just works in black  and white, without the grey areas that so often come with the chaotic nature of weather.

But isn’t this personal interpretation what the mod thread is all about? Generally you could say their track record is not very good on many occasions. But that might be because the data on offer has a wide spread. Also the media weather forecasts are based on different models with some saying the BBC isn’t much good nowadays. 
 

Until you see it actually happen nobody is entirely sure what weather we will get. 
 

We can keep our fingers crossed for a good dump. Plenty of snow as well. 

[Blessed Weather]

Here's how Norwich based weather company Weatherquest sees the snowfall totals for East Anglia by the end of Sunday. So their chart is basically showing the frontal snowfall coming into the Region tonight and into Sunday and doesn't include any shower/streamer activity on Monday and Tuesday. They acknowledge the northern and western extent of the snowfall is uncertain. (Their chart does NOT mean London and the SE get no snow; it's just showing EA totals).

Source: Twitter @danholley_

 

[Tim Bland]

This might sound nuts but if you are just to the west of the main precip band...There are 40 - 50 mph easterly winds which will drag those snow flakes west. How far I’m not sure but you could imagine 20 miles

[JamesL]

Although I now live in the Valleys of S. Wales, I lived in N Kent through the 1980’s-2010

We had some epic snowfalls on the N Downs where we lived between Sittingbourne and Lenham 

My parents still Live there and I’m really jealous looking at what potentially may fall over the next 48 hours there. 

Looks like they are right in the sweet spot for that 25-30cms

Here in S Wales we’ve had falling and settling snow for the last 3 weekends so I’m delighted you guys are going to get your fill this time. 

Already today the hills above my house are white from earlier snow which wasn’t forecast this early! 
 

ENJOY!! 

[lottiekent]

2 minutes ago, snow raven said:

Well, instead of dusting off my sledge, I'm going to dust off my glasses.   I wear contact lenses all day so don't have much need for my glasses. 

However, I am going to have to be able to see our lamppost and what is falling from the sky come 3am, so I'm off to dig out the windowlean and clean them till the sparkle

Ha ha same - can’t see a thing without my lenses so have my glasses ready on bedside table in case I wake up and want to look out the window!

[Tim Bland]

1 minute ago, lawrenk said:

To my eyes, that latest ICON almost exactly matches the latest MO warning zones. Does anyone know if, other than the own in house models, they use this mostly?

They will use a blend of Euro4 and UKV usually 

[Number 23]

Just moved recently and hadn't marked out the designated lamppost. Schoolboy error. Just spotted the one I'll be using. Can relax again. 

 

 

[Snipper]

3 minutes ago, Blessed Weather said:

Here's how Norwich based weather company Weatherquest sees the snowfall totals for East Anglia by the end of Sunday. So their chart is basically showing the frontal snowfall coming into the Region tonight and into Sunday and doesn't include any shower/streamer activity on Monday and Tuesday. They acknowledge the northern and western extent of the snowfall is uncertain. (Their chart does NOT mean London and the SE get no snow; it's just showing EA totals).

Source: Twitter @danholley_

 

A Chelmsford site to check out. 

Chelmsford Weather Station - Real time weather data

WWW.CHELMERVILLAGE-WEATHER.CO.UK

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Welcome to this amateur weather station in Chelmsford, the capital City of Essex - Real time data, weathercam, WXSim 5 day forecasts, historical weather statistics and...

 

[Paul Sherman]

All looks on track

Udated 15 minutes ago and mentions Snow might be further North and West for the Regions

BBC Weather

WWW.BBC.CO.UK

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Latest weather conditions and forecasts for the UK and the world. Includes up to 14-days of hourly forecast information, warnings, maps, and the latest editorial analysis and videos from the BBC Weather Centre.

 

[alexisj9]

16 minutes ago, Snowflake Queen said:

Gritters are out on M40

That a bit early, the rain will was the salt away, so question is, why?

[Neilsouth]

Update : Winds now shifting into the east/north east 

[mulzy]

Slight shift northwestward on the ECM 6z too. The 0z run was very east-based.

Edited February 6, 2021 by mulzy

[Djdazzle]

6 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

They will use a blend of Euro4 and UKV usually 

Although they probably look at the other models too.

[Neilsouth]

2 minutes ago, Paul Sherman said:

All looks on track

Udated 15 minutes ago and mentions Snow might be further North and West for the Regions

BBC Weather

WWW.BBC.CO.UK

---

Latest weather conditions and forecasts for the UK and the world. Includes up to 14-days of hourly forecast information, warnings, maps, and the latest editorial analysis and videos from the BBC Weather Centre.

 

If she says " POTENTIAL " one more bleeping time I'm gonna scream!

[wellington boot]

MO now showing 41 hours continuous snow here (East Sussex, just SE of Tunbridge Wells), with 6 hours of heavy snow from late afternoon Sunday... If pushed, I would probably take that...

[john mac1]

6 minutes ago, Number 23 said:

Just moved recently and hadn't marked out the designated lamppost. Schoolboy error. Just spotted the one I'll be using. Can relax again. 

 

 

I can recommend the ring security garden cam. It comes with 2 spot lights so you can just loo out into your garden and enjoy

[lawrenk]

3 minutes ago, Paul Sherman said:

All looks on track

Udated 15 minutes ago and mentions Snow might be further North and West for the Regions

BBC Weather

WWW.BBC.CO.UK

---

Latest weather conditions and forecasts for the UK and the world. Includes up to 14-days of hourly forecast information, warnings, maps, and the latest editorial analysis and videos from the BBC Weather Centre.

 

Only the BBC I know but didn’t look to be any great risk of anything marginal and no mention of the dreaded “rain on coasts”!

[Captain Shortwave]

Small corrections north and west will bring a lot more of the region into the zone where a modest covering could occur, and of course extend the area that could see significant falls. No risk of this being marginal once the cold air arrives from the north east.

Very much a sunshine and showers set situation here this afternoon. It doesn’t actually fell that cold given the winds are light and from the south east at the moment. This won’t last much longer and I guess once the wind strengthens we will lose the sun and the showers organise themselves into a broader band of rain (for now).