South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards

[pinball wizard]

5 minutes ago, Snowman. said:

Euro is going wild with the streamers on the 6z.

Totals!

Always loved the Euro4. Now if that did come off then perhaps talk of Red warnings wouldn't be so far fetched..  All to play for over the next 36 hours.

[Bill4321]

3 hours ago, johnc1106 said:

My wife thinks it's sweet (but we've not been married long and not many cold incursions so far)...  She may think differently after next week!

LOL My wife is from Poznan (NE Poland) and just said that it's cute to see me so excited about some potential snow. When I told her that I'm doing an all nighter she rolled her eyes and downgraded me from being cute to being a weirdo

Edited February 6, 2021 by Bill4321

[Mizzle]

3 minutes ago, TommyB said:

Very balmy 9.3 here at the moment, really hoping we do get snow and not rain, one of the frustrations of living 2 mins walk from the beach

Well fingers crossed for you that weather magic happens.  And if not, you get to be a figure of envy in the summer heatwaves!

[alexisj9]

2 hours ago, Laurence Hill said:

Think someone on the mod thread said this fax shows the weather front further west than expected.  Might not be this fax, stand to be corrected.

The upper cold front will have ppn on it's west side, so that should have ppn further west than most models are showing.

[kold weather]

8 minutes ago, Snowman. said:

Euro is going wild with the streamers on the 6z.

Totals!

Yeah as my previous post said your really helped by the low at 850hpa and higher being about 20-30 miles further north. That keeps winds switches to a ENE rather than due east which helps to fire up the Wash as its got just enough northerly motion in the wind direction.

Also with regards to EURO4, you can clearly see that area of precipitation moving out from the SE westwards. I'm guessing that might be that weak frontal system the Fax charts shows at 06z over the SE moving westwards as some slightly colder more air comes in as the wind flow switches ENE.

Probably will be a couple of cms for the western parts of the region should that come off, nothing mind blowing but better than nothing. Behind that we will have to be on red alert for a streamer to kick fire down the Thames (and indeed probably the wash as well for you guys further north) Never any certainties but 00z Sunday to 12z Tuesday (depending on LP to the south) look like the window of highest risk right now.

If snow is on the deck by Sunday night, its going to be hanging around for a while. The only thing it will do is sublimate away, its not going to be melting for the foreseeable. 

Edited February 6, 2021 by kold weather

[LightningLover]

5 minutes ago, TommyB said:

Very balmy 9.3 here at the moment, really hoping we do get snow and not rain, one of the frustrations of living 2 mins walk from the beach

I really don’t think it will be too much of an issue this time, with the offshore wind and better upper air profile! Everything crossed for us coastal dwellers  

[Daniel*]

7 minutes ago, Snowman. said:

Euro is going wild with the streamers on the 6z.

Totals!

Seems to reflect the updated Amber warning. There’s definitely a fault there with a snow hole over central London there’s no marginality so not sure what explains that.

[Mark Bayley]

10 minutes ago, Snowman. said:

Euro is going wild with the streamers on the 6z.

Totals!

I'm enjoying the grey zone, that i think i fall within  (not to be taken seriously of course!)

Still, suggests a coupe of cms is reasonable. With such low dew points i suspect i'll lose quite a bit of whatever falls through sublimation!

Edited February 6, 2021 by Mark Bayley

[rwtwm]

58 minutes ago, Zesyph said:

Hey everyone just wanted to know if the rain beforehand will prevent snow from settling? 

This has been asked a lot today, maybe there are a few replies I haven't gotten to. No wet ground doesn't stop snow settling if it's cold enough, and it should be cold enough. It can slightly lower the amount that sits though, depending on how wet it is, how heavy the snow is and how quickly the temp drops.

[Snowman.]

1 minute ago, pinball wizard said:

Always loved the Euro4. Now if that did come off then perhaps talk of Red warnings wouldn't be so far fetched..  All to play for over the next 36 hours.

There's potential here for a very memorable cold spell. Especially regarding the fact the models are rapidly trending towards a Scandi high keeping cold in place for well over a week.

[john mac1]

14 minutes ago, timboy666 said:

what are you on about your right in the firing line for lots of snow!!

Hmm, I’ll believe it when I see it. Had my fingers burnt too many times

[pinball wizard]

Just now, Snowman. said:

There's potential here for a very memorable cold spell. Especially regarding the fact the models are rapidly trending towards a Scandi high keeping cold in place for well over a week.

Totally agree, once the snow is down the temps will fall further and it will become bitterly cold. Should the Scandinavian high setup, as modelled by some, then we'd be in for potentially double digit minus minimums overnight. 

[Snowman.]

3 minutes ago, kold weather said:

Yeah as my previous post said your really helped by the low at 850hpa and higher being about 20-30 miles further north. That keeps winds switches to a ENE rather than due east which helps to fire up the Wash as its got just enough northerly motion in the wind direction.

Also with regards to EURO4, you can clearly see that area of precipitation moving out from the SE westwards. I'm guessing that might be that weak frontal system the Fax charts shows at 06z over the SE moving westwards as some slightly colder more air comes in as the wind flow switches ENE.

Probably will be a couple of cms for the western parts of the region should that come off, nothing mind blowing but better than nothing. Behind that we will have to be on red alert for a streamer to kick fire down the Thames (and indeed probably the wash as well for you guys further north) Never any certainties but 00z Sunday to 12z Tuesday (depending on LP to the south) look like the window of highest risk right now.

If snow is on the deck by Sunday night, its going to be hanging around for a while. The only thing it will do is sublimate away, its not going to be melting for the foreseeable. 

The winds are going to be crucial for all streamer potential, the low which was kept well south on Tuesday has been pushed north which does change the direction of the wind killing a few of the streamers but maybe setting up something for our south coast folk.

Also the possibility that it trends even further north I know the Icon has a decent front heading into the south so theres lots to play for.

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Schveningen cam, and Amsterdam cams should make for interesting scenes, especially for anyone who misses out on the snow. Hopefully that won’t be the case anywhere in this region. 

[kold weather]

4 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

Seems to reflect the updated Amber warning. There’s definitely a fault there with a snow hole over central London there’s no marginality so not sure what explains that.

They are just unfortunate looking at the loops.

The area of heavier stuff stays to the south to start with which gives E.Surrey snow, then they are too far east for the new bands that form on the front edge as the winds start to switch around. All other bands behind them just weaken as they move through London and the the wind shifts ENE at the end which causes the model to struggle to see the convection. It'll e there in truth, its just the models struggle with that this far out.

[Snowkim]

Mixed messages for where I am in north Hampshire, hope we manage to get some snow to take my little one sledging! 

[North Easterly Breeze]

Morning all, been a big fan of the site for many a year so decided to join up for the party! Fingers crossed for all those fellow coldies out there.

My attention is drawn to Monday’s front that has appeared this morning/last night, could be a lovely top up on top of tomorrow’s falls. The North Sea will be a breeding ground for clumps of pink on the radar. 

Southend, Benfleet, Rayleigh etc look perfect at this stage.

[Thunderstruck]

1 minute ago, North Easterly Breeze said:

Morning all, been a big fan of the site for many a year so decided to join up for the party! Fingers crossed for all those fellow coldies out there.

My attention is drawn to Monday’s front that has appeared this morning/last night, could be a lovely top up on top of tomorrow’s falls. The North Sea will be a breeding ground for clumps of pink on the radar. 

Southend, Benfleet, Rayleigh etc look perfect at this stage.

Welcome fellow Benfleetian!

[Ols500]

3 minutes ago, kold weather said:

They are just unfortunate looking at the loops.

The area of heavier stuff stays to the south to start with which gives E.Surrey snow, then they are too far east for the new bands that form on the front edge as the winds start to switch around. All other bands behind them just weaken as they move through London and the the wind shifts ENE at the end which causes the model to struggle to see the convection. It'll e there in truth, its just the models struggle with that this far out.

I think epsom is too far west of that heavier stuff 

[kold weather]

2 minutes ago, Snowman. said:

The winds are going to be crucial for all streamer potential, the low which was kept well south on Tuesday has been pushed north which does change the direction of the wind killing a few of the streamers but maybe setting up something for our south coast folk.

Also the possibility that it trends even further north I know the Icon has a decent front heading into the south so theres lots to play for.

I'd be stunned if it gets even remotely close to the south coast.

I've never once in my 15 years seen that evolution do anything other than swing through France and the S.Channel.

There is always a 1st, but I've seen dozens of attempts and not one has ever came off. All it will do IMO is shove a load of cloud over our shores and make any streamer decay.

[Lampostwatcher]

Looks like some streamers could pop up anywhere 

Remember around 12 years ago a great one setting up around London North 

[alexisj9]

1 hour ago, Wivenswold said:

No. When the dew point drops below zero the snow sticks to the surface water and settles. There's a few You Tube videos out there of rain to snow events. 

Yep, and that water turns to ice, it will be slippery out. 

[WheresTheSnow]

Is there any chance that there will be more snow than is expected for the western part of the region (London Westwards)? I think I just got rather excited with the snow accumulations on the ECM the other day and now I’m feeling rather deflated about tomorrow!
 

I’d be extremely excited if I was in the eastern part of this region but now I’m feeling disappointed from my own point of view being a couple miles north of London this weekend!

[nanu]

14 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

Seems to reflect the updated Amber warning. There’s definitely a fault there with a snow hole over central London there’s no marginality so not sure what explains that.

Yep I've asked for that hole over where I'm working later tomorrow, hate gritting  Borrowed it off Paul Sherman its his storm shield just slightly converted,  cost me a damn fortune! 

didn't ask for it back though strangely

[Easily sled]

Hmm, met office app (I know) now not showing anything for me tonight or tomorrow, just grey cloud. (TW13) that would be a massive disappointment given what has been reported in the last couple of days.