South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards

[NewEra21]

1 minute ago, Delka said:

can’t help but think snowfall-wise that this is going to be a huge bust for my location! too far north on most of the models and forecast i've found. ice days and deep frost probably, but snow is what i’ve been looking for and i’d be gutted if out of such a great setup for england i only get a cm or two 

I wouldn't give up hope, showers will be steaming in off of the North Sea from later tomorrow. Anyone anywhere could hit the jackpot, just a case of watching the radar!

[timboy666]

3 minutes ago, john mac1 said:

Hoping for an explosive Thames streamer Sunday night into Monday! Reckon that’s going to be the best chance for my location. 
hopefully enough tomorrow to take my daughter sledging before I go back to work on Monday

what are you on about your right in the firing line for lots of snow!!

[runboy]

Just been out for milk, car said temp was 6c, rain all morning and now the mist and fog is rolling in, a real dank day. I'm south Norfolk so fingers crossed, snow on BBC weather has been put back a couple of hours but that's not much in the scheme of mother nature! 

[Binsey72]

Well if I don’t wake up to at least it snowing and a covering here in Larkfield tomorrow morning , my phone is being flushed down the loo !! 

[chionomaniac]

Funny enough I was just coming to report on this band. I have just seen a pick of very heavy snow in this band at 900ft with it turning from rain to sleet elsewhere. Promising.

[SHM040519]

Very still and quiet in canterbury. Nice to get some fresh air! Roll on tomorrow 

[slater]

2 minutes ago, Delka said:

can’t help but think snowfall-wise that this is going to be a huge bust for my location! too far north on most of the models and forecast i've found. ice days and deep frost probably, but snow is what i’ve been looking for and i’d be gutted if out of such a great setup for england i only get a cm or two 

Unfortunately latest  guidance isn’t great for most of Norfolk now, I think at most will be snow flurries... we need to rely on the showers Monday Tuesday for our chance...Those talking about a Red Warning, I’d be surprised if one was issued...never happened back in 2018 in EA 

[Ian Docwra]

1 minute ago, NewEra21 said:

I wouldn't give up hope, showers will be steaming in off of the North Sea from later tomorrow. Anyone anywhere could hit the jackpot, just a case of watching the radar!

Hope they're not "steaming" or they won't last long!

[saintkip]

Just now, chionomaniac said:

Funny enough I was just coming to report on this band. I have just seen a pick of very heavy snow in this band at 900ft with it turning from rain to sleet elsewhere. Promising.

And that’s the band coming south later?

[Paul]

10 minutes ago, saintkip said:

Is the band of rain over northern England the same band which is going to come south and turn to snow in the early hours?

Yes, there are a couple of fronts which'll move southeast with the low pressure that'll be moving across the country and into the continent. 

 

https://www.netweather.tv/charts-and-data/fax

 

[suffolkboy_]

17 minutes ago, Ian Docwra said:

'Red' surely means a danger to life - is it REALLY likely to become that in the small area of EA and Kent affected by the heavier snow?  I can't see it.  The dangers of very heavy snow are totally different to those from rain (destructive flooding, etc).  'Amber' already covers the issues of being cut off, roads blocked, etc.  A 'red' snow warning must surely be things like roofs collapsing for there to be a danger to life.

Not necessarily. In 2018 our village was cut off for 4 days. If someone had had a medical emergency there’s no ambulances getting through. That’s a danger to life. Also think about home help etc. Luckily we’re a small community and looked out for the elderly in that spell

[NewEra21]

4 minutes ago, Ian Docwra said:

Hope they're not "steaming" or they won't last long!

Well we've heard the snow could be full of dust and yellow from Sahara. So I wouldn't rule anything out

Edited February 6, 2021 by NewEra21

[john mac1]

2 minutes ago, chionomaniac said:

Funny enough I was just coming to report on this band. I have just seen a pick of very heavy snow in this band at 900ft with it turning from rain to sleet elsewhere. Promising.

Yes, apparently forecast temps were for 3-4c. But current temps in that area are only getting to 0.8c

[Snowman.]

Euro is going wild with the streamers on the 6z.

Totals!

Edited February 6, 2021 by Snowman.

[Delka]

Just now, slater said:

Unfortunately latest  guidance isn’t great for most of Norfolk now, I think at most will be snow flurries... we need to rely on the showers Monday Tuesday for our chance...Those talking about a Red Warning, I’d be surprised if one was issued...never happened back in 2018 in EA 

It was all looking so good for us here a few days ago too, that’s what makes it feel worse now!  

Happy for those further south who are nailed on a covering but if we don’t get much here i’m getting back into bed to hide for a week and pretend this all never happened

[saintkip]

2 minutes ago, Paul said:

Yes, there are a couple of fronts which'll move southeast with the low pressure that'll be moving across the country and into the continent. 

 

https://www.netweather.tv/charts-and-data/fax

 

Cheers, looks nice and heavy at the moment, let’s hope it stays that way 

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

1 minute ago, Snowman. said:

Euro is going wild with the streamers on the 6z.

Totals!

That’s what we want! Proper Lake effect type snow. 

[TommyB]

Very balmy 9.3 here at the moment, really hoping we do get snow and not rain, one of the frustrations of living 2 mins walk from the beach

[kold weather]

The very high resolution models are really the only models that are going to have much of a hope of resolving any Thames streamer events due to the relatively small region of much enhanced instablity. The best you'll get from the globals is an area of weakish convection moving in a typical direction, such as the GFS shows:

EURO4 btw places the 850mbs low a bit further NW. This means the flow through the wash now engages and morphs into a Wash streamer so more snow up there compared with the 00z, less so further south as that little feature just dries things out a touch, though the winds are shfting easterly so expect a Thames streamer to develop shortly past the runs finishing point.

[alexisj9]

2 hours ago, Uxbridge90 said:

Oh phantastic, we get an upper cold front ahead of the main stuff. Might take ppn a bit further on it north west side.

[chionomaniac]

As it has been mentioned on here, I looked into the criteria last night for a red warning for snow. It doesn’t specifically mention danger to life. I suspect it is where conditions become extremely hazardous if you are out and about. But danger to life can occur for example if ambulances can’t reach their destination because of the conditions.

[Delka]

3 minutes ago, Snowman. said:

Euro is going wild with the streamers on the 6z.

Totals!

On the other hand, if this came off remotely like this for norfolk i’m going to pretend i never had my little moan.. please please please pull through!

[Thunderstruck]

4 minutes ago, Snowman. said:

Euro is going wild with the streamers on the 6z.

Totals!

Oh we’ll have some of that please

[Paul Sherman]

10 minutes ago, Ian Docwra said:

Yes, but that's not dependent on the heaviness of the snow - the wind chill will be there even if bone dry.  People seem to be expecting/hoping for heavier snow to lead to a red warning in itself.

I suppose it depends on what you yourself percieve as warranting a Red Warning. If you think its ok to drive in total whiteout conditions with zero visibility and 40mph blizzard and not put a Red Warning out then you may have some super Lewis Hamilton driving skills, but most of the public in the SE of England will not have the skills to drive in those conditions and hence they warn for the danger to life.

Having driven in a Haboob south of Phoenix a few times I can tell you your heart skips a beat when the Visibility goes down to the edge of your bonnet whilst doing 60mph.

Lets just see what happens later before dismissing the notions of red warnings being dished out namby pamby

[James Maidstone]

7 minutes ago, Binsey72 said:

Well if I don’t wake up to at least it snowing and a covering here in Larkfield tomorrow morning , my phone is being flushed down the loo !! 

Something would have had to have gone seriously wrong!  Especially as Larkfield on the correct wind isn't blocked by any high ground.  The actual transition time will be interesting, looking like 2am currently, I imagine it will be quite abrupt when it happens, especially if heavy!