South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards

[PiscesStar]

1 minute ago, Hurricane Squad said:

I'm just 20 minutes away down here BBC going for crazy snow amounts 40 Hours over the next 3 days or something like that. 

Yes you are and the Eastern side of England 

[Paul Sherman]

A lot of the Impact is dependent on 2 crucial things though hence the holding from Meto

1. How Heavy will the initial Precip Band be as it approaches from the East and how far west will it spread

2. How will the wind vectors allign  when the Low Pressure pulls away and will it be favourable for streamers which will have even more impact than the frontal band

I would not make that call until the event is started if it was me 

[WestSussexSnow]

With the updated warnings, the current amber will become red and the amber to cover London, Surrey and Sussex (East mainly) and also areas to the north on London.

Strange feeling, excited but making my anxiety worse. Snow always helps that

[Ian Docwra]

This is odd - NetWeather's snow risk for Coldharbour (Leith Hill, south of Dorking) shows a run of 95% snow risk tomorrow morning then a three hour period shows 0%, then 95% again for the next three hour period!  What would prompt them to show such a definitive 0% suddenly there out of nowhere - don't they handle numbers like, say, 30%?!  

Edited February 6, 2021 by Ian Docwra

[Radiating Dendrite]

Hoping the Amber can extend a little further west. Currently around 8 miles to the west, but still feeling very hopeful.

Looking now like at least a week of bitter conditions and given Europe will be frozen, it could extend further. 

1947 anyone?

[winterfreak]

Just now, Radiating Dendrite said:

Hoping the Amber can extend a little further west. Currently around 8 miles to the west, but still feeling very hopeful.

Looking now like at least a week of bitter conditions and given Europe will be frozen, it could extend further. 

1947 anyone?

I don't think it's a definite line, more an educated probability. Good luck and I hope you see loads. I can't wait....

[snowblind]

1 hour ago, exodus said:

You're in a good spot I think. I'm in Stansted... Trying to work out whether we are going to be much in the game...

It's so difficult to tell though. All the models have slightly different ideas. I think it will be a nowcast job. Fingers crossed everyone in the region can get a decent amount of snow over the next 4 days.

[Matty88]

GFS showing a real potential for the bitter weather extending well into next weekend and beyond, but, at hinting that it will be drier at the same time by that point. I'm sure there will be many more evolutions yet though. A really tasty time for us weather enthusiasts! For sure it looks like the SSW is showing us results. 

Currently tipping it down outside at the moment by the way... transition to cold underway. 

[NewEra21]

Like a monsoon here currently, pouring with rain. Puddles everywhere! 

Edited February 6, 2021 by NewEra21

[bluearmy]

4 minutes ago, Paul Sherman said:

A lot of the Impact is dependent on 2 crucial things though hence the holding from Meto

1. How Heavy will the initial Precip Band be as it approaches from the East and how far west will it spread

2. How will the wind vectors allign  when the Low Pressure pulls away and will it be favourable for streamers which will have even more impact than the frontal band

I would not make that call until the event is started if it was me 

Red warnings are usually fairly localised areas Paul. They wouldn’t cover a whole region with a red warning - part of the current amber area could go red tomorrow morning if some of the forecasts verify .....

I can’t see any reason why the yellow would go amber at the moment ....if anything the risks have been receding east a little from a shrinking envelope 

as ever, the advice for everyone is expect little and hope for loads ....then you simply can’t be disappointed. With this being a period rather than a snap, it’s also not an ‘all the eggs in one basket’ situation either ..... 

[snowrye]

9 minutes ago, alexisj9 said:

Yep, people wanted it to move northwest and thst allows the warm sector to hit coastal SE.

I think we've had more than enough of warm sectors over the last few winters, im still fretting over tonight and onwards, despite being 10 miles inland, and 70m asl, I have visions of warm sector man, standing on my decking, cape blowing in the wind, howling with laughter, as all the snow is turned to rain. No no no

[E17boy]

14 minutes ago, Planet Stow said:

Some sleet showing on MetOffice for us after a few hrs of heavy snow fall...

The sleet bit is a joke Stow yes. I really much hope so otherwise I am going to be really broken hearted . Where about are you? I am right near where the old police station used to be on Forest Road. I think we should be ok it's just the nerves kicking in before the event these last countdown hours before the event seem to feel like days. We are nearly there I just hope that amber warning is extended , but deep inside I feel we will do ok in Walthamstow but you always have that doubt till it happens Keep me updated

[snowrye]

12 minutes ago, Snowfish2 said:

It can stay WHERE IT IS 

Exactly, those in the north west of the region, have obviously forgotten about the snow they had a couple of weeks ago, whilst us lot in the south eastern part, had the cold cold rain all day

[LightningLover]

1 minute ago, snowrye said:

I think we've had more than enough of warm sectors over the last few winters, im still fretting over tonight and onwards, despite being 10 miles inland, and 70m asl, I have visions of warm sector man, standing on my decking, cape blowing in the wind, howling with laughter, as all the snow is turned to rain. No no no

Love that, Warm sector man, the destroyer of hopes and dreams. I’m fairly optimistic that a warm sector won’t be an issue this time around, and it will be far less marginal than the other failed attempts for us! Keep the faith

[Mizzle]

1 hour ago, lottiekent said:

My fiancé just let’s me get on with it. I think he’s just pleased I’m not online shopping! Plus he’s used to it as I’m just as interested when we get a storm risk in the summer

It is addictive isn't it!  Snow, storms and extreme heat, they all need chasing

[Hammer]

9 minutes ago, WestSussexSnow said:

With the updated warnings, the current amber will become red and the amber to cover London, Surrey and Sussex (East mainly) and also areas to the north on London.

Strange feeling, excited but making my anxiety worse. Snow always helps that

I don't see that in the data but the data becomes less relevant soon as it becomes Nowcast. IMHO possibly a small area will go red and leaning towards South Essex and Kent but certainly unlikely the whole Amber region. 

That said things may evolve could push more NW than expected and be heavier. 

[Ols500]

2 minutes ago, snowrye said:

Exactly, those in the north west of the region, have obviously forgotten about the snow they had a couple of weeks ago, whilst us lot in the south eastern part, had the cold cold rain all day

that lasted like 4hours lol. the more north west the more people see snow lol

[Snowonder]

Hi, do we think that Bedfordshire is too far west for tomorrow or will there be a late swing to show it moving more to the west of the region? Is it just a case of now casting when it starts a bit like the other Sunday when the front moved further north than predicted and we got about 5cm. Appreciate that was from the southwest and not southeast. Think we may get more from heavy showers sunday night/monday? What are other thoughts please. TIA  

[Hellboy]

Hi all, 

Don't often post but now is a good a time as ever. Looking forward to tonight's snowfall and any possible streamers. 

Trying to remember our snowfall totals from the BFTE in 2018. I think it was around 30cm. @Memphis snow may recall. 

Obviously not as cold as 2018 so precip intensity not as great but hoping the frontal snowfall in addition to 3 days of possible streamers can get us in the 20-30CM range. 

[SnoFlakeEar]

I am hoping we may see a light covering in Swale come this time tomorrow. Just don’t want to jinx it!

[Mark Bayley]

Looks like no more than dusting by the end of tomorrow here in NW London, but with the potential for snow showers early next week. It will be the depth and length of cold that will be most remarkable. 6c today. From Monday it will struggle to get above 0c until at least next weekend if the 6z, ECM and GEM come off..

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

Not really expecting much snow here after the intitial band, just a shame it couldn’t start off as snow!

Looking much better for Surrey, Kent!

Edited February 6, 2021 by prolongedSnowLover

[poppie123]

Hi everyone

 I'm always reading this thread hopeful we may see some snow here in Great Wakering. Usually being so close to the coast we just get sleet/rain.

Looks like we may actually get some snow from tomorrow.

Surrounded by fields and with strong winds forecast im going to talk a walk up the high street to get a few bits. I remember the winter from when i was a teen massive snow drifts and Wakering completely cut off lol.

[Hammer]

1 minute ago, Snowonder said:

Hi, do we think that Bedfordshire is too far west for tomorrow or will there be a late swing to show it moving more to the west of the region? Is it just a case of now casting when it starts a bit like the other Sunday when the front moved further north than predicted and we got about 5cm. Appreciate that was from the southwest and not southeast. Think we may get more from heavy showers sunday night/monday? What are other thoughts please. TIA  

Currently it seems unlikely to be really heavy in Bedford Sunday, but frankly your right it becomes Nowcast. You might do better from things like a Wash Streamer during week. 

[Neilsouth]

Winds expected to shift towards 3pm, becoming stronger NE as we head towards 6pm