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South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards

Blessed Weather

By Blessed Weather
in Regional

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saintkip Rising Star

saintkip

Posted
  • Location: Basingstoke
  • Location: Basingstoke
Posted
1 hour ago, Blessed Weather said:

A look at the cumulative snowfall forecasts up to midnight Sunday from the 0z high res models. Note these charts represent falling snow rather than lying depth of snow, but assuming sub-zero temps an indication of what could settle. First Arome, Euro4 and ICON, all looking similar:

1610490261_AromeSunmidnight07Feb.thumb.png.d030186cb08a9ef4181f11858d4673ce.png801933763_Euro4Sunmidnight08Feb.thumb.png.3c4566abb94cd80518a5b4bef55852e7.png502229988_ICONmidnightSun08Feb.thumb.png.c50d5d1e7eba1bd831c4e72d2acac4fa.png

As others have mentioned, some models such as Arpege aren't so good for snowfall extent, keeping the main area of snow further east. Finally, here's the GFS take on snow depth by midnight:

1775149322_GFSsnowdepthmidnightSun08Feb.thumb.GIF.53d9284ee6f2c1919443c37ad48a768a.GIF

GFS looks odd, the net weather forecast gives me 10cm of snow through early hours tomorrow but that gives me a dusting at best but  isn’t that what the net weather forecast uses?

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Paul Maestro

Paul

Posted
  • Location: Aviemore
  • Location: Aviemore
Posted
1 minute ago, saintkip said:

GFS looks odd, the net weather forecast gives me 10cm of snow through early hours tomorrow but that gives me a dusting at best but  isn’t that what the net weather forecast uses?

No, it uses UKV, we've not used GFS for years

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Laurence Hill Enthusiast

Laurence Hill

Posted
  • Location: Cheltenham
  • Location: Cheltenham
Posted
3 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

It’s not , if you look back I was posting the precip for tonight fringing into Wales 2-3 days ago. It’s exactly as expected. That front is separate to the low to our south east tomorrow 

Sorry!

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Neilsouth Experienced

Neilsouth

Posted
  • Location: Home near Sellindge, 80m/250feet, 5miles from Coast
  • Weather Preferences: Severe Storms and Snow
  • Location: Home near Sellindge, 80m/250feet, 5miles from Coast
Posted

I couldn't sleep at all last night, felt like a kid again waiting to be snowed in... 

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East_England_Stormchaser91 Veteran

East_England_Stormchaser91

Posted
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and Thundery, Cold and Snowy
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
Posted

Everyone is going mad for this cold spell, the Dutch and Germans in particular. They are on about this being historic! 

Love to see it!! Tonight is when it begins! 

WINTER IS COMING ❄️

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TEITS Maestro

TEITS

Posted
  • Location: Peterborough N.Cambridgeshire
  • Location: Peterborough N.Cambridgeshire
Posted

I think some models are having a laugh when it comes to the precip predictions. Take for example tomorrow , the Euro4 suggests little in the way of convection across much of E England. However I firmly believe snow showers will be widespread and not restricted to only streamers.

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exodus Explorer

exodus

Posted
  • Location: Stansted, Essex. 97m asl
  • Location: Stansted, Essex. 97m asl
Posted
7 minutes ago, southbank said:

@kold weather that fax if I reading it right might renew your faith ? That’s pushing the front further west than the HiRes models ?

Does this push the precipitation further west/inland? I've been uncertain whether we would get much here in Stansted.

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simonhall6 Explorer

simonhall6

Posted
  • Location: Brentwood, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Brentwood, Essex
Posted (edited)

The BBC have just released their latest forecast and they said up to 20cm’s in places towards the east of our region tomorrow but they are uncertain how far west the snow will reach but she said they should know later.

765070E3-5DF8-44CA-9B54-473629705682.png

122BE182-FD47-4BF3-92D8-156D970D77FA.png

Edited by simonhall6
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Sarahgreatchart Rookie

Sarahgreatchart

Posted
  • Location: Hamstreet
  • Location: Hamstreet
Posted

Can someone help

me

understand 

I used to live in north downs and ashford and hythe ... they all have tons of snow forecast (over 10cm) . I now live in hamstreet (5miles west) and forecast (1.5 cm) 

I’m in trouble with my children! 
 

why is it so different ?
 

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Captain Shortwave Maestro

Captain Shortwave

Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough
Posted (edited)

The GFS 06z has effectively wiped out any snow for those further west including here regarding tonight and tomorrow’s system. This is more in line with the others in concentrating the snow towards East Suffolk/Essex and Kent and the areas of London in those counties.

Plenty of showers appearing for Monday though.

Edited by Captain Shortwave
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Tim Bland Maestro

Tim Bland

Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
Posted
12 minutes ago, Laurence Hill said:

Sorry!

I wasn’t being grumpy,  I was just saying it’s where it was expected to be ??

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Tim Bland Maestro

Tim Bland

Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
Posted
3 minutes ago, simonhall6 said:

The BBC have just released their latest forecast and they said up to 20cm’s in places towards the east of our region tomorrow but they are uncertain how far west the snow will reach but she said they should know later.

765070E3-5DF8-44CA-9B54-473629705682.png

122BE182-FD47-4BF3-92D8-156D970D77FA.png

I reckon by tomorrow night they will have a good idea

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bluearmy Maestro

bluearmy

Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
Posted
1 minute ago, Sarahgreatchart said:

Can someone help

me

understand 

I used to live in north downs and ashford and hythe ... they all have tons of snow forecast (over 10cm) . I now live in hamstreet (5miles west) and forecast (1.5 cm) 

I’m in trouble with my children! 
 

why is it so different ?
 

It’s just a forecast by a computer .....it won’t happen like that ....  but no one can promise you won’t be in trouble with your kids ....

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Sarahgreatchart Rookie

Sarahgreatchart

Posted
  • Location: Hamstreet
  • Location: Hamstreet
Posted
Just now, bluearmy said:

It’s just a forecast by a computer .....it won’t happen like that ....  but no one can promise you won’t be in trouble with your kids ....

I told them

it was two sleeps away- they are 5 (twins) one woke up at 3am last night to ask if it was snowing yet...

 

thing is it’s going to be too icy to even drive in it I’m sure 

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Lauren Veteran

Lauren

Posted
  • Location: The North Kent countryside
  • Weather Preferences: Hot summers, snowy winters and thunderstorms!
  • Location: The North Kent countryside
Posted

I do hope the heavy rain predicted for 12 hours before the snow doesn't hamper the snow laying too much.

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Tim Bland Maestro

Tim Bland

Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
Posted
5 minutes ago, Captain Shortwave said:

The GFS 06z has effectively wiped out any snow for those further west including here. More in line with the others in concentrating the snow towards East Suffolk/Essex and Kent and the areas of London in those counties.

Sunday morning yes, but long way to go with the cold spell after that ...

42D60B95-E2B6-4DD4-BA72-C5CF90E144F4.png

FC8DC647-9E08-4823-9E96-121E045EB6DF.png

D39B83AE-8940-4F66-A601-73A42D8B7BBB.png

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bluearmy Maestro

bluearmy

Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
Posted
2 minutes ago, Sarahgreatchart said:

I told them

it was two sleeps away- they are 5 (twins) one woke up at 3am last night to ask if it was snowing yet...

 

thing is it’s going to be too icy to even drive in it I’m sure 

Oh dear ..... Golden rule of weather watching .....never ever promise snow, unless it’s absolutely cast iron certain (like e Suffolk and e Essex tomorrow and even then, not on the coasts just for safety).  

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RJM Apprentice

RJM

Posted
  • Location: Near Canterbury
  • Location: Near Canterbury
Posted
17 minutes ago, Neilsouth said:

I couldn't sleep at all last night, felt like a kid again waiting to be snowed in... 

I woke up stupid early just to read the posts!

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