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South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards


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Posted
  • Location: Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, more snow and even more snow..Oh and I love a good old Thunderstorm
  • Location: Surrey
    1 minute ago, Mizzle said:

    Am I reading those right that a snow band could move through on Sat before the main event? (i.e. snow - rain - snow. )

    No its the transition of the cold air spreading south I guess.. The boundary between the much colder air and mild air being pushed away.. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Hadleigh, Suffolk
  • Weather Preferences: An Alpine climate - snowy winters and sunny summers
  • Location: Hadleigh, Suffolk
    16 minutes ago, Dazza9525 said:

    Has anyone else noticed that the beeb forecasts, national and SE on Sunday show temps of +2 or 3c? In my experience that means snow NOT settling!? Why are they showing such high temps? 

    Spot-on response already by @kold weather but here's Arpege temp forecasts which support the BBC charts and illustrate that where the snow is falling the temps will be lowest, but by Sunday evening the entire Region falls below zero.

    Sunday 13.00 778880561_ArpegeTempSun13_00.thumb.png.12c24220d7cfd5002272a768710ccef3.png 19.00 1212634346_ArpegeTempSun19_00.thumb.png.456c36ffd3a3684b1532dd1afa5639d8.png

    Edit: Worth pointing out that dewpoint temps - another important requirement for snow - are below zero for the entire Region throughout Sunday and are almost the opposite of 2m temps, with lowest dewpoints outside of the area of snowfall.

    Dewpoints 13.00 1423645624_ArpegeDewpoints13_00.thumb.png.4035af2d7f7230843472820fe03c51cc.png

    Edited by Blessed Weather
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    Posted
  • Location: Coggeshall, Nr Colchester, Essex
  • Location: Coggeshall, Nr Colchester, Essex
    12 minutes ago, Dazza9525 said:

    Has anyone else noticed that the beeb forecasts, national and SE on Sunday show temps of +2 or 3c? In my experience that means snow NOT settling!? Why are they showing such high temps? 

    Because they tend to badly over estimate temperatures when cold. Try the met office website to get a better indication, widely subzero Sunday till Tuesday. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Attleborough Norfolk,
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, only when I'm at home!
  • Location: Attleborough Norfolk,
    1 minute ago, Hammer said:

    Thoughts on adjustments to Meto warnings for Sunday a little later. Adjustment to Amber northern edge southwards perhaps?

    Yes, I think you may be right? ,South Suffolk southwards, not looking as good as it was yesterday for South Norfolk North Suffolk, local radio said Essex area now looks most favoured spot

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    Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

    Just looking at daily temperatures, what was very interesting is the clear effect of the ENE airflow on Monday night on the surrounding temperatures:

    2mtemp_20210206_00_076.thumb.jpg.e6d538cdd35234ab6a14faa905bbc0fd.jpg

    You can visually see the track path any moisture will take by the slightly warmer temperatures (caused by higher moisture levels). That would be your broad path for any Thames streamer at that point, though that will shift around a little north and a little south at times, and of course is only according to the ICON!

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    Posted
  • Location: North Hampshire/Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Fog, Frost, Storms and Rain if it rains like it means it.
  • Location: North Hampshire/Surrey
    3 minutes ago, winterfreak said:

    My wife just passed by and said why aren't I like normal husbands who view other 'stuff' on the internet!!!

     

    Doesn't share my love for snow at all lol

    My husband just arrived home after a nightshift. Asked me if the weather has upgraded, downgraded, outgraded or sidegraded. 😂 At least he's trying to show an interest! 

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    Posted
  • Location: Brentwood, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Brentwood, Essex
    27 minutes ago, Hammer said:

    Possibly wrong thread but not sure I understand the logic of Meto putting a snow warning out on Friday through to Wednesday and then on text forecast say mainly dry Wednesday. 

    Why even issue any warnings for Wednesday when even today the warnings are very likely to be adjusted for Sunday. 

    In many ways even the warning for Tuesday possibly a little dubious for the entire region splattered with the warning.

    Hi Hammer 

    I believe the warnings are for ice as well as snow, so the warning for Wednesday with temps below freezing ice will become a real issue, I expect warnings to increase for ice/snow  on Thursday as well.

    On a side note, Another 3 points for us later ⚒⚒

     

    Edit I see someone else responded 🙂 

    Edited by simonhall6
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    Posted
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex
    Just now, Hammer50 said:

    Very heavy clouds here as well still like nighttime here.

    Must be quite localised as only had rain here - no hail or dark clouds.

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    Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex

    Having a hefty hail storm here, everything is going white.... not for the last time this week hopefully 🤞

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    Posted
  • Location: Prague, Czech Republic and Staines, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and sunny, thunderstorms, snow, fog, frost, squall lines
  • Location: Prague, Czech Republic and Staines, UK

    ECM in particular trying to prolong the cold spell and rebuff the Atlantic, very interesting. Could this coming week just be a starter on the winter menu?! E of London looking great for snow this week, W looking decidedly underwhelming but anything could happen, as we all know 👍🏻
    Czech news now reporting this cold spell, saying it’ll get down to -20°C in prone spots with daytime maximums of -6 to -12°C, though there are disagreements about snow amounts and where it’ll fall. 

    Edited by stainesbloke
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    Posted
  • Location: Coggeshall, Nr Colchester, Essex
  • Location: Coggeshall, Nr Colchester, Essex
    45 minutes ago, Blessed Weather said:

    A look at the cumulative snowfall forecasts up to midnight Sunday from the 0z high res models. Note these charts represent falling snow rather than lying depth of snow, but assuming sub-zero temps an indication of what could settle. First Arome, Euro4 and ICON, all looking similar:

    1610490261_AromeSunmidnight07Feb.thumb.png.d030186cb08a9ef4181f11858d4673ce.png801933763_Euro4Sunmidnight08Feb.thumb.png.3c4566abb94cd80518a5b4bef55852e7.png502229988_ICONmidnightSun08Feb.thumb.png.c50d5d1e7eba1bd831c4e72d2acac4fa.png

    As others have mentioned, some models such as Arpege aren't so good for snowfall extent, keeping the main area of snow further east. Finally, here's the GFS take on snow depth by midnight:

    1775149322_GFSsnowdepthmidnightSun08Feb.thumb.GIF.53d9284ee6f2c1919443c37ad48a768a.GIF

    Is anyone else trying to triangulate their position by flicking between these snow charts and Google maps? Or is it just me?😳

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    Posted
  • Location: Canterbury
  • Location: Canterbury

    The really impressive and dangerous part is the temperatures.  4 sub zero days in a row, don't think people are very use to that now.

    If people go out early gambling about in  the snow, it wil compact and freeze into an ice rink especially if temperatures are a bit marginal for the first few hours. As a kid in the 70s we would wait until it had well settled until going out so that it would have a chance to lay, especially if we wanted to go sledging on Babs hill.

    However can't wait for that sound of muffled silence that you get on truely heavy snow days,  we must watch out for the elderly and take care with your water pipes.. Think my heating will be staying on for a few days as last time the condenser pipe froze and then you have a potentially risky fix,,,

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    Posted
  • Location: Littlehampton, West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms
  • Location: Littlehampton, West Sussex

    My guess for the period to Monday is that a line from the Wash to the IOW, east and south, is most prone to "significant" snowfall, moreso Eastern areas.

    Then streamers etc. and small possibility of something from the south midweek.

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    Posted
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley
    2 minutes ago, Ice Day said:

    Having a hefty hail storm here, everything is going white.... not for the last time this week hopefully 🤞

    Really strange weather here this morning

    Thick Fog rolling up the Estuary interspersed with heavy convective rain

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    Posted
  • Location: Larkfield
  • Location: Larkfield
    1 minute ago, Snowflake Queen said:

    😂😂😂 need I say more , clearly I just look at the shapes of the charts 

    98C1E493-406B-4635-8E6C-54B4FA263E44.png

    Let’s hope it don’t go tits up !

    Edited by Binsey72
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    Posted
  • Location: West Byfleet, Surrey
  • Location: West Byfleet, Surrey

    Away from the extreme east of the region who look likely do do well with snow the headline further west is feeling extremely cold with harsh windchill (nothing  compared to those on the North Sea facing coasts of course where it will be brutal) but predominantly dry, I'll take that over mild/wet muck to dry things out.

     

     

    Edited by Cableguy
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    Posted
  • Location: Coggeshall, Nr Colchester, Essex
  • Location: Coggeshall, Nr Colchester, Essex
    1 minute ago, stainesbloke said:

    ECM in particular trying to prolong the cold spell and rebuff the Atlantic, very interesting. Could this coming week just be a starter on the winter menu?! E of London looking great for snow this week, W looking decidedly underwhelming but anything could happen, as we all know

    I think gem was looking good as well and was introducing even colder weather after next weekend. A long way off but I think the cold weather could be more resistant than the models were showing a couple of days ago. Even if it does relax its grip for a few days I don't think it will go far and could surge back again  with any luck. Something to watch anyway.

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    Posted
  • Location: Coggeshall, Nr Colchester, Essex
  • Location: Coggeshall, Nr Colchester, Essex
    2 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

    latest from dutch met between 2cm and 15 cm in our region,but look at the totals in Holland!

     

    Wow! Crazy amount of snow over there.☃️🌨️❄️

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    Posted
  • Location: Bromley, Kent (BR2)
  • Location: Bromley, Kent (BR2)
    20 minutes ago, winterfreak said:

    My wife just passed by and said why aren't I like normal husbands who view other 'stuff' on the internet!!!

     

    Doesn't share my love for snow at all lol

    My wife thinks it's sweet (but we've not been married long and not many cold incursions so far)...  She may think differently after next week!

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    Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
    2 minutes ago, johnc1106 said:

    My wife thinks it's sweet (but we've not been married long and not many cold incursions so far)...  She may think differently after next week!

    Give it thirty years buddy .........

     

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