South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards

[clark3r]

Euro 4 is my favourite model at the moment, why? Because it gives me a pasting of snow I don’t know it’s accuracy though 

[Hammer]

Possibly wrong thread but not sure I understand the logic of Meto putting a snow warning out on Friday through to Wednesday and then on text forecast say mainly dry Wednesday. 

Why even issue any warnings for Wednesday when even today the warnings are very likely to be adjusted for Sunday. 

In many ways even the warning for Tuesday possibly a little dubious for the entire region splattered with the warning.

Edited February 6, 2021 by Hammer
Typo

[NO LONGER POSTING]

1 minute ago, clark3r said:

Euro 4 is my favourite model at the moment, why? Because it gives me a pasting of snow I don’t know it’s accuracy though 

HA! Its probably everyone's favorite model at the moment.. It brings a risk for everyone.. Doesn't mean its right..far from it.. 

It will be radar from here on out now.. I don't expect huge changes on the 06z or 12z runs maybe some minor West East North South shifts to be expected.. 

The reason I like the Euro4 is as kold says its starting to highlight convection areas of PPN better than most other models. Its tieing in very well with the met Office warnings and its a very respected model..

But let's keep our fingers crossed and I pray we all have a decent wintry spell and everyone gets in on it! 

[BLS]

2 minutes ago, Hammer said:

Possibly wrong thread but not sure I understand the logic of Meto putting a snow warning out on Friday through to Wednesday and then on text forecast say mainly dry Wednesday. 

Why even issue any warnings for Wednesday when even today the warnings are very likely to be adjusted for Sunday. 

In many way even the warning for Tuesday possibly a little dubious for the entire region splattered with the warning.

Snow and ice warning so assume it’s to cover the freeze the last couple of days, also showers coming in off the North Sea are something that could just pop up and give another couple of Cm’s and of course streamers aren’t out the question Tuesday and Wednesday so I assume it’s to just cover themselves 

[Dazza9525]

Has anyone else noticed that the beeb forecasts, national and SE on Sunday show temps of +2 or 3c? In my experience that means snow NOT settling!? Why are they showing such high temps? 

[Great Plum]

Well, tomorrow morning is looking positive in Reigate...

The met office app also suggests that below freezing temperatures to continue here until Friday morning now!

[Jamie M]

Just now, Dazza9525 said:

Has anyone else noticed that the beeb forecasts, national and SE on Sunday show temps of +2 or 3c? In my experience that means snow NOT settling!? Why are they showing such high temps? 

I think Paul's mentioned this in past but the BBC have a habit of boosting forecast temps a good 2/3°C higher than they should be in winter. 

[BLS]

Just now, Dazza9525 said:

Has anyone else noticed that the beeb forecasts, national and SE on Sunday show temps of +2 or 3c? In my experience that means snow NOT settling!? Why are they showing such high temps? 

BBC are very behind, they haven’t updated my local page in 2 days, I wouldn’t really pay attention to them to be honest 

[winterfreak]

3 minutes ago, Jamie M said:

I think Paul's mentioned this in past but the BBC have a habit of boosting forecast temps a good 2/3°C higher than they should be in winter. 

I think the beeb do this because they WANT it to be!!!

[Hammer]

13 minutes ago, Spraggyy said:

Snow and ice warning so assume it’s to cover the freeze the last couple of days, also showers coming in off the North Sea are something that could just pop up and give another couple of Cm’s and of course streamers aren’t out the question Tuesday and Wednesday so I assume it’s to just cover themselves 

Sure but why not issue a more coherent warning for example issue just an ice warning closer to the time and therefore with more accuracy. Trying not to be to hard on them but just seems a little lazy.

Edited February 6, 2021 by Hammer
Error

[Mizzle]

Well a beautifully cold and foggy morning as a precursor for (hopefully) some snowy times ahead. Have been checking temps since before sunrise and delighted to see that temp and dp have dropped in the past couple of hours: T -0.2°C / DP -0.3°C

[kold weather]

4 minutes ago, Dazza9525 said:

Has anyone else noticed that the beeb forecasts, national and SE on Sunday show temps of +2 or 3c? In my experience that means snow NOT settling!? Why are they showing such high temps? 

Sundays temperatures are going to be totally dependent on whether you have either 

1: decent snow coverage on the ground (doesn;t have to be deep, just not patchy).

2: If your under the snow showers are a reasonably constant pace.

2-3c maybe possible in areas without either of those two, though 0-1c looks more realistic to me. Come Monday and I don't expect anywhere to be above 0c.

[Djdazzle]

Just now, winterfreak said:

I think the beeb do this because they WANT it to be!!!

Even Central London will struggle to get much above freezing - the BBC forecasts are crud. I’d love to get a partial refund on my TV licence fee!

[Great Plum]

6 minutes ago, Dazza9525 said:

Has anyone else noticed that the beeb forecasts, national and SE on Sunday show temps of +2 or 3c? In my experience that means snow NOT settling!? Why are they showing such high temps? 

That’s because they always do the temperatures I. Urban areas which are typically warmer - but I think they are overdoing it!

[Daniel*]

I gathered why it shows heavy snow on app 3-5am.

 

[Speedbird]

7 minutes ago, winterfreak said:

I think the beeb do this because they WANT it to be!!!

I think that extends to these forums too. We'd all prefer to see what we want to see, especially with regards snow totals and can be dismissive of other data if it's not what we want to see.

That's human nature

Edited February 6, 2021 by Speedbird
added 'not'

[Hammer50]

16 hours ago, alexisj9 said:

What's the darker desk pink mean. As I've no scale.

Big hail in Braintree 

[Djdazzle]

1 minute ago, Speedbird said:

I think that extends to these forums too. We'd all prefer to see what we want to see, especially with regards snow totals and can be dismissive of other data if it's what we want to see.

That's human nature

True - but they are pros!

[NO LONGER POSTING]

3 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

I gathered why it shows heavy snow on app 3-5am.

 

They are good!! 

[Speedbird]

Just now, Djdazzle said:

True - but they are pros!

i wouldn't go that far

[Hammer]

Thoughts on adjustments to Meto warnings for Sunday a little later. Adjustment to Amber northern edge southwards perhaps?

[Hammer50]

Very heavy clouds here as well still like nighttime here.

[winterfreak]

My wife just passed by and said why aren't I like normal husbands who view other 'stuff' on the internet!!!

 

Doesn't share my love for snow at all lol

[Mizzle]

32 minutes ago, Surrey said:

Well the EURO4 00Z out and its still peachy in fact.. brings forward the transition in some places and brings more people in the Western edges into the game

Still very much in line with Met office warnings

 

   

   

 

Am I reading those right that a snow band could move through on Sat before the main event? (i.e. snow - rain - snow. )

[jamesgold]

I know it’s an app, but whether it thinks these showers will hit me or not, that really is a rare sight