South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards

[EJA]

27 minutes ago, Surrey said:

 

On mobile so hard.. Not to far actually away from arome apart from the much better totals out east.. This is up to midnight Monday 

It’s nice to see Brighton in the game

[Daniel*]

2 minutes ago, Radiating Dendrite said:

It will be radar watching. The East Coast of Scotland has a nearer constant streamer atm, similar in look to what we saw in Jan. 

Uppers only -8C up there right now and with colder seas and higher MSLP.

 

[Jamie M]

Quite impressed with the MO amber since it does seem to be pretty spot on for the spots with largest accumulations so far with what models are suggesting. I do wonder whether we could see a red issued around 1030.

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2 minutes ago, Jamie M said:

Quite impressed with the MO amber since it does seem to be pretty spot on for the spots with largest accumulations so far with what models are suggesting. I do wonder whether we could see a red issued around 1030.

Not at this stage I don't think.. I was once under the red warning in 2010 for the Thames streamer that plastered us. I was actually shopping in Reading when it happened and there only around 2" of snow.. When I got back home on the train I stepped of the train in Virginia Water and it was nearly upto my knees! The train kept shuddering all the way back to our station .. Took forever...

Red warnings are usually issued as the event unfolds..  

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15 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

I think it has a lot to contribute imo, if you remember early January rainy easterly it was much more extensive and persistent than modelled this was with -7C uppers and full cloud cover. This time we have uppers of -11C! Surely common sense a big convective element will be embedded in.

Almost certain and models find it nearly impossible to pick up on the smaller details. I mean how hard is it to forecast where thunderstorms might move up from the South in summer.. It is still always pot luck till we see them firing on radar 

[Kentspur]

This suggests to me Euro4 is picking up on the Thames streamer is there another site I can view it anyone got the link?  I'm right in the heart of that darker blue blob midnight Sunday- Monday

Edited February 6, 2021 by Kentspur

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1 minute ago, Kentspur said:

This suggest to me Euro4 is picking up on the Thames streamer is there another site I can view it anyone got the link?  I'm right in the heart of that darker blue blob midnight Sunday- Monday

To much of a southerly track to be a proper Thames streamer.. Probably some heavier PPN being aided by the Estuary 

This is what a proper one looks like although they can be even heavier than this 

[zubzero]

2 minutes ago, Kentspur said:

This suggest to me Euro4 is picking up on the Thames streamer is there another site I can view it anyone got the link?  I'm right in the heart of that darker blue blob midnight Sunday- Monday

WWW.METEOCIEL.FR

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Meteociel propose de manière régulière le modèle à maille fine EURO4 0.04° du UK MetOffice (météo angaise) sur 5 zones (France, Nord-Ouest, Nord-Est, Sud-Ouest, Sud-Est et pays limitrophes)

 

weather model euro4 h model - united kingdom - rain/snowfall [base + 3] | weatheronline

WWW.WEATHERONLINE.CO.UK

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Weather for UK, Ireland and the world. Sailing, Marine Weather, Weather maps, radar, satellite, climate, historic weather data, information about meteorology, reports, weather warning.

 

[Mizzle]

2 minutes ago, Surrey said:

To much of a southerly track to be a proper Thames streamer.. Probably some heavier PPN being aided by the Estuary 

This is what a proper one looks like although they can be even heavier than this 

Here in Fleet NE Hants a Thames streamer can give us a good snowfall too.

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Just now, Mizzle said:

Here in Fleet NE Hants a Thames streamer can give us a good snowfall too.

Yes, depending on flow.. 

What I will tend to do now is look at the runs this morning but then switch them off and go onto the radar. I said it last time comparing the other snow event to the models. It was quite apparent how wrong they were so early on

[Coopsy]

Regarding the Met Office warning. If you look at the guide to the warning matrix, it’s already at the highest impact, but the likeliness is lowish.

IF they think it’s guaranteed then it’ll move into red. But we know how tricky it can be forecasting snow, so if things don’t change and asyou get closer to T0, I’d imagine seeing the tick move up a box to just under the red.

 

[kold weather]

So models are still firming up on tonight, basically becoming a non event further west you go, definately not worth staying up for if your n the western part of the region.

Beyond that and the signal for strong convection to band is getting tighter now its coming into the high resolution models. They typically really struggle with Thames streamers in particular and the wind becomes more favourable into Monday for its formation.

The GFS suite try to bring the LP over the channel very close to us (actually grazes the south on the 00z GFS)  on Tuesday but this has very low support other than that. The worst case scenario is a close miss as that would kill any streamer/shower activity in rhe region until it has clear off to the east and we repull in another easterly in its wake.

So today it still looks good for the east, perhaps a slightly lower amount from the models than previously but that will shift around each run. Further west its going to be a very patchy affair, some will get absolutely nothing from this unless a breakdown snow occurs., others may get lucky under constant streams/banding convection in which case a quick fire couple of inches will be possible, and maybe more if a proper streamer sets up somewhere like the Thames, etc.

EDIT - take a look at E.Scotland now, I suspect thats something like what you'll see in the SE tomorrow afternoon.

Edited February 6, 2021 by kold weather

[Allezwasps.]

2 minutes ago, kold weather said:

So models are still firming up on tonight, basically becoming a non event further west you go, definately not worth staying up for if your n the western part of the region.

Beyond that and the signal for strong convection to band is getting tighter now its coming into the high resolution models. They typically really struggle with Thames streamers in particular and the wind becomes more favourable into Monday for its formation.

The GFS suite try to bring the LP over the channel very close to us (actually grazes the south on the 00z GFS)  on Tuesday but this has very low support other than that. The worst case scenario is a close miss as that would kill any streamer/shower activity in rhe region until it has clear off to the east and we repull in another easterly in its wake.

So today it still looks good for the east, perhaps a slightly lower amount from the models than previously but that will shift around each run. Further west its going to be a very patchy affair, some will get absolutely nothing from this unless a breakdown snow occurs., others may get lucky under constant streams/banding convection in which case a quick fire couple of inches will be possible, and maybe more if a proper streamer sets up somewhere like the Thames, etc.

How far West do you think the cut off will be Around Reading maybe ?

[kold weather]

11 minutes ago, Allezwasps. said:

How far West do you think the cut off will be Around Reading maybe ?

Maybe not that far west, alot is going to depend on just how much instability there is with the showers. Some will get through but they may well be running out of puff by that point. 

The airflow looks better on Monday to drag the showers further west as its more easterly but alot depends on the low to our south. 

That could be a the game killer in multiple ways for western parts of the region (and indeed later for all)

1: Turns the upper flow more southerly which causes us to lose the coldest 850hpa early, which makes any breakdown go very marginal extremely quickly, and the poor breakdowns on the GFS ensembles also have the LP very close to the south on Tuesday, all good runs keep it well away.

2: Kills off shower activity just as in theory the winds shift favorably for those further due west of London. It could be useful for those north of the Thames for a brief time before the whole lot is shut off IF the lows frontal system gets too near.

The 2nd issue would become a non issue were it to get far enough north to actually give the goods anyway, but thats a remote outside possibility right now (I'd rate it maybe 10-20% chance for the SW of the region, and basically near 0 further north).

As ever though once we are in the showery flow it will be a total nowcast situation. Some will get lucky even well west of the main event. Some will get unlucky and have to make do with some lovely ice and thats it...

 

Edited February 6, 2021 by kold weather

[username home]

10 minutes ago, Allezwasps. said:

How far West do you think the cut off will be Around Reading maybe ?

Winchester’s about as far south and west that I think it will get 

[snowblind]

Great overnight update from the met office for our region. Snow, snow and more snow from tonight until Tuesday. Wednesday dry but still freezing. Looks like the further east you are the better. But couldn't ask for a better update really.

[V for Very Cold]

Bit of a comedown this morning..... precipitation totals are very small.... who’s getting all the snow or is it just nowcasting from midnight?

[Kentspur]

32 minutes ago, Surrey said:

To much of a southerly track to be a proper Thames streamer.. Probably some heavier PPN being aided by the Estuary 

This is what a proper one looks like although they can be even heavier than this 

I'm not so show I'd say that's too patchy usually likes of Croydon/ and Southern portions of M25 etc are under it aswell I remember from previous Events? And maybe ending down to the New Forest rather than towards North Dorset/Wiltshire? Not sure on  the westerly extent just using theory so could be wrong. You've prob got the right angle on that. The one I posted maybe a blend of Thames/Kent Streamer. 

 

I heard on the BBC forecast they mentioned snow as far west as Wiltshire so it sounds promising for those west in the region too

Edited February 6, 2021 by Kentspur

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Arpege to pick out the streamers first.. 

Thames Gang... 
 

Monday 8am

 

Monday 9pm

 

Tuesday 5am

 

All for fun but the risk is there for some substantial snow in favoured areas even Inland.. These are notoriously hard situations to forecast in 

 

Edited February 6, 2021 by Surrey

[Tom Quintavalle]

6 hours ago, John Stevens said:

Goodnight and good luck with the snow from late tomorrow and into Sunday and next week!  

The Euro4 is spot on... unfortunately I cannot get the images at the moment to attach Steve says

 Steve Murr is thinking of you all on here, especially

@TomSE12  

 

Au revoir!!

 

 John
 

Edit: got the image

Morning all,

Hope I find yourselves and your Families, well.

Hi, John.

Yes Steve no doubt remembers my passion for Thames Streamers, having both been up watching the Radar, during the Feb. 2009 Event.

Think Steve lived in Greenhithe then, around 13 Miles upwind of me here in Lee.

We both heard the Thunder, that Night.

From a selfish P.O.V., I'm hoping any E.N.E. flow will be delayed until Tomorrow Evening, and any appreciable Snowfall for our Region, arrives on a N.E. flow.

I got a text from my G.P.'s Surgery Yesterday Afternoon, telling me to book an appointment for a CV jab. as a slot was ready for me.

I will be having it done, late Tomorrow Morning but have to travel some 3 Miles South, to a Community Centre in Bromley, Kent.

I was surprised to get a call so soon but I am 65, and had a Stroke 5 Years ago, so considered to be at fairly high risk.

The reaction of my Wife was comical though! Anybody would've thought that I'd been told I was about to receive a Knighthood!!

I had to remind my Wife that Sir Tom, has been done recently but I rather fancy Sir Tom of Bromley, or of Thames Streamer Land.

But wouldn't be ironic, after singing their praises for 16 Years of Membership of NetWeather, a Thames Streamer could pop up and force me to cancel my appointment. "Hoisted on my own petard", springs to mind.

A N.E. flow tends to be too dry for Bromley , after it's passage from the North Sea, then over Suffolk and Essex, with any Snow Showers fizzling out before they reach, S.E. London/N.W. Kent. But no doubt S--S Law will occur Tomorrow, and give a good dumping to the area!!

I can't drive but neither can Colette, so she's booked a Cab to drop and wait.

My Sister, who is nearly 73 had a jab Yesterday at Sevenoaks, and was in and out in about 15 minutes.

I'll leave you with an X-Files type tale.

Some our Region's Members, entered my Winter Weather predicting Competition.

The first couple of predicting Categories centred around, North Atlantic named Storms.

A couple of Years ago, I bought my Wife a soft toy Bear. on Valentines Day. 

Colette decided that the Bear was Female, and christened her Darcy Bella.

Imagine mine and Colette's surprise, when both Darcy and Bella appeared on the 2020/21 North Atlantic Storm names List.

Darcy Bella now has bragging rights over her soft toy Brothers, Billie (spelt like that on his foot) and Rupert.

She will now doubt revel in a bit of notoriety again, as she did just after Christmas, when Bella struck.

All 3, share mine and Colette's bed, there's hardly enough room for Yours Truly.

This is why I refer to my Wife, as Septic Peg. She seems to have strange psychic powers!!

So, personally I don't want to see any veering of the floe to E.N.E., until I'm back home in Lee, after being jabbed up.

Then it can Thames Stream, for as long as it likes!!

Regards,

Tom. 

Edited February 6, 2021 by TomSE12

[Number 23]

Buzzing for later anyway, despite not looking quite as exciting as I'd hoped for my location on the face of it. When I see easterly I think 91, it's a cognitive bias

Hope we all get some surprises later. The element of the unknown is part of the fun isn't it? There's usually a few locations who get smashed when they least expected it. 

Still believe I'm on for at least two maybe three inches of snow, which is enough to build a snowman with the boys in the garden. 

And on the upside, most of us can enjoy it and still get to the shops easily next week, which is more than some might be able to say come Monday night

[Chiltern_Blizzard]

Any idea about North home counties...e.g bucks? I think we might see something. But perhaps a tad too westerly

[Bill4321]

07:00  and light fog running down the Ouse towards the sea here in Newhaven. T:3.5 D 2.8.

Many people have commented  on the movement of the birds recently and as I look out of the window I see flocks of seagulls making their way up from the Channel and heading westwards. I'm not talking a few birds, it's hundreds.

I can't wait to see how the next 48 hours pan out. I'm not expecting much snowfall but I am hoping to see the temperature and dew points drop just enough to turn rain to snow and wet to white. That transition brings out the child in me

 

[kold weather]

@TomSE12 I'm in the same situation, in that 'I've got a jab through my work tomorrow morning, so purely selfish point of view I'd rather it held off if possible. I think given how much further west I am I will get my wish. I think your area may end up under a more constant stream of showers regardless of the angle, it will look alot like the radar is showing for E.Scotland right now, with little tendrils extending westwards which will be the training showers and will move about in the airflow.

Any Thames streamer will start to show itself late Sunday evening based on current wind flow higher up switching ENE. GFS has about a 24hrs window, but other models have longer. Duration all depends o that low coming in from the west and how far ESE it ends up diving (if it does at all of course!)

PS- both ECM and GEM keep us *cold* throughout next weekend. 00z GFS blasts it away by Friday. There is a trend towards keeping the cold surface airflow going longer now than first thought, even if the uppers do head up, thanks to a surface flow from the SE/SSE.

Edited February 6, 2021 by kold weather

[Mizzle]

7 minutes ago, Surrey said:

Arpege to pick out the streamers first.. 

Thames Gang... 
 

Monday 8am

 

Monday 9pm

 

Tuesday 5am

 

All for fun but the risk is there for some substantial snow in favoured areas even Inland.. These are notoriously hard situations to forecast in 

 

Great stuff! Hopefully in the firing line again.

 

As an aside, I recall actually getting snow from a Cheshire gap streamer - can't recall which year but it goes to show they can certainly travel if the conditions are right.