South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards

[Kentspur]

2 hours ago, Ols500 said:

does anyone know how much snow is needed for the trains to stop?

Not a lot I work for a London train company and id advise do not travel! Its the likes of the traction on the running rails that will be a problem!

[Kentspur]

2 hours ago, throwoff said:

Bear in mind the trains are probably running on limited staff anyway due to C19. Won’t take a lot to slow things right down. 
 

I have a close contact in the upper Levels of network rail, I can’t wait to see what they have to say tomorrow afternoon.

 

Same level of staffing where I am mate all about health and safety and what could happen if there wasn't enough staff these days I'd def advise not to travel our old Victorian rails weren't built to accommodate snow like the more modern European overheads

Edited February 6, 2021 by Kentspur

[Kentspur]

1 hour ago, danm said:

2004 that was. Remember as I was in my last year of Sixth Form on my way home from an interview at my first choice University. Got out of the train station in NE London to be met by an almighty snowstorm!

Remember this well January 2004 in Dartford I was also in my last year sixth form was with friends we went to play football in the park then crash bang wallop snow came down really heavy was awesome! Ended up having a massive snowball fight 

[Kentspur]

Looking at all the available precip data I've seen 15cms looks my best estimate for my area from the frontal event, I'm not sure about if some are factoring in streamer potential in that total though being on the cusp of a Kent Streamer and in a prime position for a Thames streamer I would have thought its likely there should be more than that assuming we get ENEly flow and other factors come together.

Edited February 6, 2021 by Kentspur

[throwoff]

00z pushing back a tiny bit for most of Kent, snow kicking in 3am ish Sunday now instead of midnight.

in no way a downgrade in overall terms though from what I can see so far

[Kentspur]

Massive upgrade on Met up after a few heavy snow symbols downgraded to just a couple on Sunday at different times now I have several and the snow doesn't stop until early Tuesday morning!!Thames streamer did I hear you say??❄

[LightningLover]

53 minutes ago, Kentspur said:

Massive upgrade on Met up after a few heavy snow symbols downgraded to just a couple on Sunday at different times now I have several and the snow doesn't stop until early Tuesday morning!!Thames streamer did I hear you say??❄

My met office app somehow manages to show sleet in the morning after a few hours of heavy snow (but transitions back to snow later in the day) haha! Surely not...

Edited February 6, 2021 by LightningLover

[tesaro]

4 hours ago, kold weather said:

Probably about the most optimistic model I've seen yet from the 18z suite, most models are showing significantly more patchy snow cover for our neck of the region to the west of the thread region.

I suspect the map that Nick F showed earlier from the 18z UKV is about right, patchy accumulation to the west of London, some areas may get lucky and get accumulations, some will get nothing at all. All luck of the draw probably. Any decent altitude will help for Saturday night.

Tuesday is becoming a slight worry, the wind was good for a streamer BUT if the LP to our south gets too close it will switch the winds more ESE and hut the streamer down, and we'll have just a cloudy cold day instead in across the whole SE. Remote chance it ends up bumping into the southern coastal counties but lets be honest, when was the last time we had one of those types of lows, I cant remember it in living memory to be honest!

One Mans loss and all that. We tend to do better in an E/SEly here in West Suffolk due to the longer Sea Track.

[NO LONGER POSTING]

EURO4 holding soild on the 18z run last night... 

 

Edited February 6, 2021 by Surrey

[Laurence Hill]

14 minutes ago, Surrey said:

EURO4 holding soil on the 18z run last night... 

 

Holding soil?

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Just now, Laurence Hill said:

Holding soil?

Soild typo on phone just got up 

[Laurence Hill]

1 minute ago, Surrey said:

Soild typo on phone just got up 

Great, had me worried for a moment, so looking good.

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Just now, Laurence Hill said:

Great, had me worried for a moment, so looking good.

Yes looks very good.. 

ICON and Arpege Poor but it goes totally against the met warnings and amounts they are suggesting.. Plus goes against their own model. 

While they do need credit I don't think it will be as poor as they are showing.. The arpege makes a bigger deal out of the showers and streamers Monday and Tuesday than tomorrows snow.. 

If the Euro4 starts backing the icon or arpege then I might worry but for now still all good.. The reason I'm putting so much faith into the Euro4 is it seems to be the one following the met Offices thinking the most.. 

 

 

[Captain Shortwave]

Most models now showing two phases to this event now.

The first happens this evening when an area of rain/sleet/snow moves west from the north sea before curving southwards and clearing away.

This, given the timing is a marginal event as the truly cold air has not arrived yet. Possible dusting of snow for some, but dependent on a lot of variables going in our favour.

The second phase is what impacts the eastern portion of the region.

This will be definitely be snpw, At least 10cm for areas stuck under this band, possibly 20cm+.

For many central and western areas it is the first band that will need watching to see whether it turns properly to snow or is more significant in scope and intensity as the second band would need a significant correction west that isn't really happening.

End of Arome run

The amber warning area of course gets the largest totals, much more patchy elsewhere. The others are similar really, some like the GFS produce wider coverage, whilst the Arpege gives a lot less.

Edited February 6, 2021 by Captain Shortwave

[Kentspur]

30 minutes ago, Surrey said:

EURO4 holding soild on the 18z run last night... 

 

Any charts I'm pretty confident now with it being like 24 hours away

[Kentspur]

9 minutes ago, Captain Shortwave said:

Most models now showing two phases to this event now.

The first happens this evening when an area of rain/sleet/snow moves west from the north sea before curving southwards and clearing away.

This, given the timing is a marginal event as the truly cold air has not arrived yet. Possible dusting of snow for some, but dependent on a lot of variables going in our favour.

The second phase is what impacts the eastern portion of the region.

This will be definitely be snpw, At least 10cm for areas stuck under this band, possibly 20cm+.

For many central and western areas it is the first band that will need watching to see whether it turns properly to snow or is more significant in scope and intensity as the second band would need a significant correction west that isn't really happening.

End of Arome run

The amber warning area of course gets the largest totals, much more patchy elsewhere. The others are similar really, some like the GFS produce wider coverage, whilst the Arpege gives a lot less.

Looks poor for my patch in the amber warning area just about a cm or 2

[NO LONGER POSTING]

6 minutes ago, Kentspur said:

Any charts I'm pretty confident now with it being like 24 hours away

 

On mobile so hard.. Not to far actually away from arome apart from the much better totals out east.. This is up to midnight Monday 

Edited February 6, 2021 by Surrey

[Kentspur]

2 minutes ago, Surrey said:

 

On mobile so hard.. Not to far actually away from arome apart from the much better totals out east.. This is up to midnight Monday 

What's the 6th shade of pink im in that zone? THANKS!

[Captain Shortwave]

9 minutes ago, Kentspur said:

Looks poor for my patch in the amber warning area just about a cm or 2

As long as your are in the area with solid coverage then I wouldn’t worry about specific totals. It still looks like east Suffolk/Essex and North Kent in particular that gets hit the hardest, possible that this could extend into East Norfolk but the area with the highest warning level still looks good.

[fatyido]

Has anyone else got the app called Windy ? 
I think it’s bloody good. So much info

[Daniel*]

Too weak precip intensity imo on UKV and other models I think the reality would see some quite intense line convection capable of throwing a few inches down pretty quickly.

[NO LONGER POSTING]

10 minutes ago, Kentspur said:

What's the 6th shade of pink im in that zone? THANKS!

10-20cm hard to make out.. In line with met office warnings 

[NO LONGER POSTING]

1 minute ago, Daniel* said:

Too weak precip intensity imo on UKV and other models I think the reality would see some quite intense line convection capable of throwing a few inches down pretty quickly.

Thini this might be half the issue.. What effects will convection have on totals.. The Thames...etc.. 

 

[Daniel*]

5 minutes ago, Surrey said:

Thini this might be half the issue.. What effects will convection have on totals.. The Thames...etc.. 

 

I think it has a lot to contribute imo, if you remember early January rainy easterly it was much more extensive and persistent than modelled this was with -7C uppers and full cloud cover. This time we have uppers of -11C! Surely common sense a big convective element will be embedded in.

[Radiating Dendrite]

1 minute ago, Daniel* said:

I think it has a lot to contribute imo, if you remember early January rainy easterly it was much more extensive and persistent than modelled this was with -7C uppers and full cloud cover. This time we have uppers of -11C! Surely common sense a big convective element will be embedded in.

It will be radar watching. The East Coast of Scotland has a nearer constant streamer atm, similar in look to what we saw in Jan.