South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards

[winterfreak]

4 minutes ago, TomLO04 said:

I’ll be keeping my expectations low to avoid disappointment. Might be able to run up towards Sevenoaks and have a lookie.

Been pretty crap here today hasn’t it..

[kold weather]

7 minutes ago, john mac1 said:

That still looks like the winds are staying NE? I thought they were swinging round more ENE? 

They will do, though not till later on Monday. Its a bit of a complicated pattern actually, because the higher parts of the steering flow is NE but lower levels are ENE. So what will probably happen is lines form and move SW,  the band will drift westwards then fade away and a new streamer setting up a little to the east.

Eventually the upper flow switches ENE as well and the whole lot will swing out towards London some point from 18z Monday onwards. However instability is decreasing by that point so how much gets west of central London is again very much uncertain.

If your SW of the M25 for example, i'd be bracing for a bit fat:

Edited February 7, 2021 by kold weather

[Natty68]

Bit worried about the snow east of me on the map, it looks like it could be pretty deep.

 

If it snows all night I dread to think how deep it'll be in the morning. Pretty but deep.

[Gonzolio Martinez]

Well, weirdly the radar says there's no snow - but looking outside, there most certainly is - quite a lot of it as well!
Not big flakes, but very small. So much of it though, it almost looks foggy. Wonder why the radar isn't showing it

Edited February 7, 2021 by Gonzolio Martinez

[alexisj9]

3 minutes ago, Ben M said:

The dandruff is back, this is painful lol 

All of my snow has been small dandruff flakes, if you get stuck in a stream of, and now it's night fall, they should add up.

[ajkwilson]

2 minutes ago, winterfreak said:

For our latitude it’s the worst possible place for cold  

I'm in Yalding which is similar and been good today 

[Biggin]

6 minutes ago, alexisj9 said:

I'm not sure about that, some heavy stuff coming toward Kent right now. Do they not read the radar?

Snow has pepped up again here moderate fall.

[steveinsussex]

Bitterly cold out and perfect for snow to settle however the showers now stopped

[winterfreak]

1 minute ago, ajkwilson said:

I'm in Yalding which is similar and been good today 

I meant the UK as a whole 

[Howie]

1 minute ago, kold weather said:

They will do, though not till later on Monday. Its a bit of a complicated pattern actually, because the higher parts of the steering flow is NE but lower levels are ENE. So what will probably happen is lines form, drift westwards then fade away and a new streamer setting up a little to the east.

Eventually the upper flow switches ENE as well and the whole lot will swing out towards London some point from 18z Monday onwards. However instability is decreasing by that point so how much gets west of central London is again very much uncertain.

If your SW of the M25 for example, i'd be bracing for a bit fat:

I know everyone is saying not to be too emotional about this but I'm really upset, cold without snow is just pointless to me, we'll see

[Hammer]

Heaviest snow of the day here past 30 minutes and already a light covering. Shame it won't last for hours and hours as now dark and temperature dropping.

[Ben M]

1 minute ago, alexisj9 said:

All of my snow has been small dandruff flakes, if you get stuck in a stream of, and now it's night fall, they should add up.

That's true, I might have about ten flakes by an hour's time....  (yes it's very, very light lol!!) 

[Uxbridge90]

Streamer activity kicking in, looks pretty weak at the moment but could bring some activity to those that haven’t seen any today? 

Awesome pics and videos today from those that received some accumulations.

[jright35]

14 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

Rough guide to tonight/tomorrows streamer.

Winds become more favourable midnight-1am.

What streamer? Is this confirmed? I was under the impression things were easing off 

[Biggin]

4 minutes ago, DAVE_ALLEN said:

Wind at City Airport has veered 50o Between NE and ENE any streamers will head more towards London, and Surrey and Kent away from the kent coast.. imo.

Great stuff.

[kold weather]

Just now, Howie said:

I know everyone is saying not to be too emotional about this but I'm really upset, cold without snow is just pointless to me, we'll see

Yeah I understand, this has been quite a frustrating spell so far for various reasons to be fair.

All you can do really is prepare for the worst and hope something unexpected happens. You can never be 100% certain something odd won't crop up, its just you've got to be realistic about the odds within your local area.

For example, in SW Essex a Thames streamer has a realistic chance of giving the goods, even if its only brief. For S.London, the odds are a little lower, but still decent. For somewhere like Guildford, lower again, maybe it does make it, or maybe not. Where I am, unless its a really solid streamer (no sign of that at the moment!) its some flurries at best.

[snow raven]

I'm getting the impression winds aren't going to swing ENE overnight, which is gutting as I had pinned my hopes on a Thames streamer *sob*

[Met4Cast]

5 minutes ago, kold weather said:

They will do, though not till later on Monday. Its a bit of a complicated pattern actually, because the higher parts of the steering flow is NE but lower levels are ENE. So what will probably happen is lines form, drift westwards then fade away and a new streamer setting up a little to the east.

Eventually the upper flow switches ENE as well and the whole lot will swing out towards London some point from 18z Monday onwards. However instability is decreasing by that point so how much gets west of central London is again very much uncertain.

If your SW of the M25 for example, i'd be bracing for a bit fat:

Bang on, that's why I drew the risk areas where I did. 

Like you say, winds do finally switch more ENE later tomorrow afternoon/early evening but it's likely convection will fade somewhat by then. 

700hPa steering winds are generally a rough guide to where showers will go. 

[classylady]

Woke up early this morning to see and hear rain, then proper snow. Starts to settle then snizzle and it’s gone! About 4pm starts snowing again, go for a walk, nice dusting. One satisfied lady (for now!!) x
 

[gooner265]

23 minutes ago, Kentspur said:

How about for snowless Gravesend/Northfleet hope I'm not too far west still can't get over how Dartford and Bluewater have snow but not here can't win either direction lol

I doubt that,  nothing in Greenhithe apart from a bit on cars in ingress Park, it can't be much

[Howie]

1 minute ago, kold weather said:

Yeah I understand, this has been quite a frustrating spell so far for various reasons to be fair.

All you can do really is prepare for the worst and hope something unexpected happens. You can never be 100% certain something odd won't crop up, its just you've got to be realistic about the odds within your local area.

For example, in SW Essex a Thames streamer has a realistic chance of giving the goods, even if its only brief. For S.London, the odds are a little lower, but still decent. For somewhere like Guildford, lower again, maybe it does make it, or maybe not. Where I am, unless its a really solid streamer (no sign of that at the moment!) its some flurries at best.

What do you think the chances are for North London, Edmonton?

[Met4Cast]

3 minutes ago, jright35 said:

What streamer? Is this confirmed? I was under the impression things were easing off 

The frontal system is easing off, was always expected to be replaced by heavy showers/streamers as colder air begun generating convection & winds switched round as the low pulls south. 

I suspect that's mainly the reason for the amber.

[Natty68]

20 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

Rough guide to tonight/tomorrows streamer.

Winds become more favourable midnight-1am.

All I'll say to that is...gulp!! That orange streak is right over me.

[snowblind]

Just done a measurement. 8cms on the grass, I suspect some of that is grass. 5cms on the wheelie bin. Still patchy on the pavement and roads. Temp below freezing now at -0.3. Plenty of icicles forming when I went out earlier.

[Oaks]

Broken clouds here now, what's the chances of a streamer hitting Sevenoaks, ??