South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards

[Howie]

1 minute ago, Snow Slave said:

Yeap, just wasted a load of money on snow gear for 3 kids, dunno why i do it to myself every single time.

Although its a waste of money at this point, i would of been more annoyed if we had a decent amount of snow and they didnt have the gear to stay out all day and enjoy it. 

Just hope maybe we get a decent freeze tonight and a surprise for tomoz?

Sweet of you to buy ya brother snow gear, sure he really apprecaites you doing that. 

 

I'm hoping these streamers can deliver something decent and we can make use of the winter gear we bought lol. And yeah I'd do anything for that little devil

[MAF]

1 hour ago, TN9 said:

 the settling level proper is i reckon 300 odd ft ,going by the cameras .... 60 ..300...600ft..m2 medway to top of blubell hill 

Don't forget those camera shots are crown copyright. got told off once for using them  

[Eagle Eye]

Snow melting

On a different note

5 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

Oh my f**king god.

How many times does it need saying?

1. The amber doesn't expire until tomorrow midday

2. Widespread heavy showers & streamers are going to follow later, tonight, and through much of the day tomorrow.

Stop calling it a "bust" just because your area hasn't been buried by 10 foot of snow yet. The event has barely even started.

I agree this is no bust the streamer hasn't been called the main event but I imagine it is what the Met Office have been talking about with major snow. I get annoyed with myself whenever I think it's over when really the models weren't predicting much more than what I've got at the moment for mid day today and then tonight and tommorrow it suddenly increases so I think that the focus has been on the frontal precipitation way too much the streamer is what will bring the heaviest of the snow and where we could see the settling Snow that could be higher than the totals of all snowfalls here since 2018. 

[jamesgold]

49 minutes ago, jamesgold said:

I’m feeling quite good in Bromley about that long line of convection stretching up to Norwich. Still refusing to settle on roads and pavement though

Still going... starting to settle on outdoor tables etc

[Paul]

I think sometimes people take some of the water equivalent snow accumulation charts which get posted up a bit too literally, as they don't take into account melt or moisture content in the snow etc. They're literally showing how much snow is falling and giving a depth on 100% of it settling. It's better to use the snow depth charts which some of the models produce, as that does take melt etc etc into account, and although they can also sometimes under do the snow amounts, particularly temporary falls etc, they are generally a far better guide, but maybe less exciting looking than the ones which show a load of lying snow everywhere!

The UKV 9z this morning produced this for snow depths, as you can see it doesn't accumulate snow very widely up to this point, but that changes this evening and overnight as temperatures drop. 

Beyond this animation, it does melt some in the day tomorrow, before doing similarly with fresh falls again tomorrow evening. 

[spear]

Up to around 8cm so far on my patio where it didn't even start to settle until there was a covering on the grass. Still snowing moderately so for my location I'd say the met office have been pretty spot on. Will measure again when it stops if the kids haven't used it for a snowman! 

[UKSupercell]

Good afternoon from East Hants. Fell asleep very late last night watching this forum and looking at models/radars! 

So only been up for a couple hours. Some patchy snizzle here in East Hants, blowing about in the wind, but nothing more. 

While this event may seem underwhelming at present and perhaps a "bust" for some, others in the SE have got a good covering (up to 10cm browsing this forum with 20cm drifts) and the fun is only just beginning. So don't write things off too soon, I'm sure there's more to come. Faith, patience and perspective people! 

[bobbydog]

2 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

Oh my f**king god.

How many times does it need saying?

1. The amber doesn't expire until tomorrow midday

2. Widespread heavy showers & streamers are going to follow later, tonight, and through much of the day tomorrow.

Stop calling it a "bust" just because your area hasn't been buried by 10 foot of snow yet. The event has barely even started.

To be fair, there has been less snow than forecast up to this point. That is probably due to the delay in the colder temps arriving,  which has left ground temps slightly on the high side, making it more difficult to achieve laying snow initially. The MetO forecast is still going for heavy snow for the south east area. As you say, I think the heaviest falls associated with the warnings will come from showers and streamers. The problem will be how far inland the showers make it and the direction of any streamers 'if' they set up. Some will hit the jackpot whilst others will miss out (probably me lol)

[Dbarb]

Overall the forecast has panned out they way it was meant to, the places that are expected to see alot of snow have, the only thing that's not gone well is the temperatures being abit too high for most of it to settle. Apart from that going to plan

[Paul Sherman]

Hammering it down again in Leigh On Sea after a 1 hour break of Light Snizzle.

Temp has not got above 0c since it dropped below at 545am.

Oh and one Facebook Page I give some forecasts for I have told to do one as one guy was complaining that my 6am start of the snow was delayed by 2 hours, this is what you are dealing with these days, Its a shame but I will not do it anymore and probably wont give out any thoughts soon on here as well, not worth the effort if the wind is in the wrong direction for instance.

Good Luck with your streamers over the next 48 hours.

 

[Gowon]

All of a sudden it's settling more widely on roads and pavements - good sign

[danm]

I think the disappointment today for many - except for some in the far east of the region - is the lack of settling snow. Plenty has fallen, ranging from light to heavy, but not much of it has stuck. That is down to air temps, dew points and ground temps being higher than expected. Here in NE London it’s been snowing non stop since about 8.30am, light to moderately, yet there’s only a sugary dusting on a few surfaces. If it had all stuck we’d likely have 3/4cm’s by now. The actual modelling of of the placement and intensity of this band has been pretty bang on, so no forecasting failure in that regard.

However, we still have another 2-3 days of opportunities for showers and streamers, at least for us further east, and that should all be in the colder air. 

[EML Network]

Snow here has changed to this weird pellet type snow and its starting to settle.

Can really feel the wind chill now, slowly everything it turning white

[Thinon]

Today's Met Office's text forecast for the SE was a snow lover's dream. "Heavy and widespread snow", "drifting", "bitter easterly wind", "ice on untreated surfaces". Warnings in place across the region.

 

Well there is barely 3 hours left until "today" becomes "tonight" and the reality for most of us has been a million miles from the expectation.  

 

I'm not calling it a complete bust just yet, but it's easy to understand why so many people are upset.

 

[yamkin]

 

[DAVE_ALLEN]

5 minutes ago, Snow Slave said:

Yeap, just wasted a load of money on snow gear for 3 kids, dunno why i do it to myself every single time.

Although its a waste of money at this point, i would of been more annoyed if we had a decent amount of snow and they didnt have the gear to stay out all day and enjoy it. 

Just hope maybe we get a decent freeze tonight and a surprise for tomoz?

Sweet of you to buy ya brother snow gear, sure he really apprecaites you doing that. 

 

A couple of kids are out in the street playing in the salt that the gritter dumped in the road. Its a good couple of mm deep. In fact we've had more grit than snow grains. 

[Biggin]

37 minutes ago, scrat said:

Settling nicely now on the patio and really pepped up 

Thought you might have more than me just down the road.

[bobbydog]

2 minutes ago, Wynter said:

Just incase anyone was wondering what Steve Murr's take on today so far is...

He hasn't posted on his twitter for 19hrs. 

Says a lot really.

I wasn't.... but I'll bet he was forecasting 'snowmageddon' for today.... 

[craigore]

5 minutes ago, Ian Docwra said:

I don't think very many are saying there won't be any significant snow, but the 'Darcy' phase was badly out, and the supposedly guaranteed sub-zero temperatures also haven't materialised.  I suspect there may be more chances to come of sub-zero temperatures to allow whatever falls to settle, but, given the North Sea's unusual warmth this year, it's by no means certain.  What leaves Holland at -3C/-2C gets here quite widely at 0C/+1C after travelling over +5/+6C water.

Not true

I'm in Ramsgate/Manston.

Been below freezing all day this far..

You cant get mch closer to the sea than me..

[kold weather]

5 minutes ago, Ian Docwra said:

I don't think very many are saying there won't be any significant snow, but the 'Darcy' phase was badly out, and the supposedly guaranteed sub-zero temperatures also haven't materialised.  I suspect there may be more chances to come of sub-zero temperatures to allow whatever falls to settle, but, given the North Sea's unusual warmth this year, it's by no means certain.  What leaves Holland at -3C/-2C gets here quite widely at 0C/+1C after travelling over +5/+6C water.

To be fair I can be certain I'm not getting any settling snow out of this set-up as anything that makes it is going to dandruff rubbish thats not going to settle in a typical way.

I see nothing yet to change my mind on that one, but that doesn't take away from what is happening further east.

 

[Ackkers]

Now 6cm here and snowing in moderate bursts. Hasn't stopped snowing since 7am. It's dry powdery stuff and blowing in the stronger gusts. Temp at low of the day at -1.2C DP -1.4C. Gusts around 22mph.

[Ian Docwra]

The Met Office pressure forecast map shows two wriggling convergence zones in the days ahead; one off eastern Scotland and the other off, and across, north and north-eastern England.  None here in the SE, although an occlusion sits close to the Kent coast tomorrow.

[Kentieo Weather]

2 minutes ago, danm said:

I think the disappointment today for many - except for some in the far east of the region - is the lack of settling snow. Plenty has fallen, ranging from light to heavy, but not much of it has stuck. That is down to air temps, dew points and ground temps being higher than expected. Here in NE London it’s been snowing non stop since about 8.30am, light to moderately, yet there’s only a sugary dusting on a few surfaces. If it had all stuck we’d likely have 3/4cm’s by now. The actual modelling of of the placement and intensity of this band has been pretty bang on, so no forecasting failure in that regard.

However, we still have another 2-3 days of opportunities for showers and streamers, at least for us further east, and that should all be in the colder air. 

Any idear when temps might begin to fall just the wrong side here.

[Matty88]

Just checked in again on the radar but not too much to get excited about just yet for inland EA, I suspect that will change into tonight as the vorticity and wind direction shifts. A great post by Nick earlier that showed this sequence and NW shift. 
 

Some posters are expecting the band to stay static in its current position into tomorrow but I’m not onboard with that - it may seem static until this evening but it will shift and change into convective bands of showers I suspect and effect different places. Most models seem to agree with this. The interesting bit will be how much snow it can deliver later on. 

[Snow Shoes]

3 minutes ago, Cableguy said:

Cant even see any streamers setting up at this rate, regardless of any positive spins being out on things by folk this has not panned out as forecasts suggested and I cant see that changing. From an IMBY perspective wasn't expecting much anyway so not disappointed but I do feel for those further East where this has failed to deliver.

The forecast from yesterday suggested that there would be a good covering across the entire south-east but starting to look now as if this is only going to deliver if you live in Essex or Kent. I'd love to be proven wrong but winds are currently too northerly to spread the snow westward.