South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards

[Paul Sherman]

1 minute ago, essexweather said:

Just got off the phone with the duty forecaster in Exeter. Slight delay with the colder air, but snow for the Amber zone still expected.

No bust... yet!

Canterbury taking a right old walloping already which is a good sign

[Maidstone marginal]

3 minutes ago, Jamie M said:

 

Think that pic is near aylesham. Got some altitude there. It's still a positive sign though 

[snowrye]

Let's all join forces and unite, together we will bring the snow forthwith, sorry, i've not been to bed as yet

[Paul Sherman]

Obs

4am Temp was 2.8c and Dewpoint was 2.1c

5am Temp was 2.1c and Dewpint was 0.9c

Getting there slowly

[Oaks]

Wind starting to howl here and pretty sure there is flakes in amongst the drizzle 

[kold weather]

3 minutes ago, Maidstone marginal said:

Maybe Boxley downs have snow but I'd get soaked by walking up there. Onwards and upwards  ay

Snow also looks like its falling at Bluebell looking at the camera.

Hard to tell as the quality isn't great in the dark, but wouldn't be surprising.

Slowly starting to turn folks, i think we'll see much more widely reported snow in the next 90 mins.

[OzzyUK]

6 minutes ago, Wynter said:

I will carry on this argument because I never said the MO was right. I said I was "following the MOs updates" which were showing this as a bust until during Monday day time.

If I had just watched the radar without following the MO I would have been staring at the radar all night wondering why nothing was happening! What a waste of time that would have been.

So again, no, watching the radar was the incorrect advice. 

Hopefully you/MO are correct and we will see something from this in due course.

Crack on and persevere in whichever prediction makes you happiest, there are no set rules.

The radar is the most useful tool in short-term snow forecasts, but up to you if you wish not to use it.

Cheers.

[winterfreak]

1 minute ago, Oaks said:

Wind starting to howl here and pretty sure there is flakes in amongst the drizzle 

As I typed out my long diatribe I saw that in the light of the lamppost

[BLS]

I think most of Kent will be reporting snow within the next hour or so just give it time dp are nearly there and it’s turning ever more sleety with the heavier stuff still to come ! Time to watch the cricket a resist looking out the window for an hour or so

Edited February 7, 2021 by Spraggyy

[kold weather]

Area between Maidstone and Cantebury should be increasingly snowy in the next 30 mins, some good returns down there now.

Still think somewhere in N.Kent won't be far off from 30cms by the end of this...I know that sounds optimistic right now, but if the streamers line up right its still very manageable.

[SHM040519]

4 minutes ago, Paul Sherman said:

Canterbury taking a right old walloping already which is a good sign

It is snowing here heavily but not laying here in central canterbury yet. Back to sleep for a couple of hours for me!

[Kentieo Weather]

Still on the wrong side 

Temp +2.7

Dp +1.9

Raining

Edited February 7, 2021 by Kentieo Weather

[East Kent Snow Desert]

Lampost tells me there are huge wet flakes blowing through but sounds from the conservatory roof tell me there's still rain in the mix. Still I'm on the coast so much patience needed as ever

[Jamie M]

Dew point starting to drop here on the coast and flakes are becoming more and more frequent in heavier bursts.

2.1c 1.5c dp

[Jamie M]

1 minute ago, East Kent Snow Desert said:

Lampost tells me there are huge wet flakes blowing through but sounds from the conservatory roof tell me there's still rain in the mix. Still I'm on the coast so much patience needed as ever

Exactly the same here.

[Maidstone marginal]

2 minutes ago, kold weather said:

Snow also looks like its falling at Bluebell looking at the camera.

Hard to tell as the quality isn't great in the dark, but wouldn't be surprising.

Slowly starting to turn folks, i think we'll see much more widely reported snow in the next 90 mins.

I think the East Kent downs are doing much better than the west Kent downs. Reports of snow cover in Pelham and that's at the bottom of a valley

[kold weather]

2 minutes ago, OzzyUK said:

The radar is the most useful tool in short-term snow forecasts, but up to you if you wish not to use it.

 

I think the thing is the radar is only as good as your ability to make sense of what it is showing and to spot the trends within it. 

I've got a sneaky feeling that what may have happened is the low between 850-500mbs was a little further NW than expected by the models. This meant that the colder air didn't filter down as quickly since the whole airmass was just that bit further north. The radar suggests this as well when you look at the circulation that was seen between 3-5am just offshore of Belgium, which was about 50 miles further NW than the GFS expected even on its 00z run.

[Maidstone marginal]

Just now, Maidstone marginal said:

I think the East Kent downs are doing much better than the west Kent downs. Reports of snow cover in Pelham and that's at the bottom of a valley

Elham 

[Stu_London]

Snow/Rain mix in Tunbridge Wells

[stubbys]

1 minute ago, East Kent Snow Desert said:

Lampost tells me there are huge wet flakes blowing through but sounds from the conservatory roof tell me there's still rain in the mix. Still I'm on the coast so much patience needed as ever

Same here, just had the torch out the window, just starting to turn to snow now, nothing laying yet obviously. I'm so close to the sea, so hardly ever get decent snow. Here's hoping or else the kids will slaughter me me when they get up.

[OzzyUK]

2 minutes ago, kold weather said:

I think the thing is the radar is only as good as your ability to make sense of what it is showing and to spot the trends within it. 

I've got a sneaky feeling that what may have happened is the low between 850-500mbs was a little further NW than expected by the models. This meant that the colder air didn't filter down as quickly since the whole airmass was just that bit further north. The radar suggests this as well when you look at the circulation that was seen between 3-5am just offshore of Belgium, which was about 50 miles further NW than the GFS expected even on its 00z run.

Again, thanks for the explanation.

Every day is a school day!!

[kold weather]

Just now, Maidstone marginal said:

I think the East Kent downs are doing much better than the west Kent downs. Reports of snow cover in Pelham and that's at the bottom of a valley

I think thats just mainly down to where the heavier precipitation has been falling so far this morning. Its been getting steadily stronger throughout the last 2hrs so I;m not surprised thats happened.

The good news is its spreading increasingly far out across Kent now. 

This is the 9am chart from 00z ARONE:

If anything the area east of Maidstone will likely be ahead of schedule. If anywhere will get a red warning, it will be along N.Kent.

[TommyB]

Morning all,

Just woke up and the weather isn't really doing much...bit of light sleetiness in the wind. just read through the last few pages, a lot of disappointment and arguing but fingers crossed it's just delayed, I still feel excited

Now for a cuppa and a spot of lamp post watching 

1.8c here

[Paul Sherman]

This still looks like a Reverse Kent Clipper to me 

However many times I run the radar it does not get any better unless you are in Kent 

[winterfreak]

1 minute ago, TommyB said:

Morning all,

Just woke up and the weather isn't really doing much...bit of light sleetiness in the wind. just read through the last few pages, a lot of disappointment and arguing but fingers crossed it's just delayed, I still feel excited

Now for a cuppa and a spot of lamp post watching 

1.8c here

Morning! I feel frazzled