South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards

[kold weather]

Just now, Stu_London said:

They are probably still narrow favourites for the series, although it would take something remarkable for them to win this match 

Ha sorry I did mean match, its been a long night!

Interesting to see the AROME has totally shifted its expectations.

Now doesn't do much more with the front but develops some idecent convective banding pretty quickly through the morning and then plenty of overnight, pretty constant on a NE airflow, so those areas such as mid Kent, SE Essex would do very well in such a set-up.

Think there may have to be a bit of dialing back of expectations though to be fair.

[Stu_London]

all is not lost folks - gfs has something quite tasty for our region around the 19th February. 

[Kentspur]

2 minutes ago, Paul Sherman said:

No not really, when things are off by a full 5c on the dewpoint at any given timestamp (eg it was supposed to be -3c on the dewpoint at 4am) on 6 of the 8 models i looked at you know something has gone badly wrong at the beginning of the modelling.

Look at it this way, If I was chasing tornadoes and the temp was supposed to be 80f and the Dewpoint around 72f and in effect the dewpoint was 66f I would not expect to see tornadoes and only High Based Thunderstorms due to the high temp/dp spread and quickly tell my eager customers that some pretty clouds would be in the offing and not low lcl ground scraping tornadoes.

Something looks to have gone wrong with the modelling of Darcy or it gone awry somewhere over in the low countries

We shall see if trends improve in the next few hours but not holding my breathe, not writing off the whole spell but this first bite (frontal) is looking dodgy now

Which were the 2 models that had the highest dew points out of interest?

[Snowman.]

1 minute ago, Paul Sherman said:

No not really, when things are off by a full 5c on the dewpoint at any given timestamp (eg it was supposed to be -3c on the dewpoint at 4am) on 6 of the 8 models i looked at you know something has gone badly wrong at the beginning of the modelling.

Look at it this way, If I was chasing tornadoes and the temp was supposed to be 80f and the Dewpoint around 72f and in effect the dewpoint was 66f I would not expect to see tornadoes and only High Based Thunderstorms due to the high temp/dp spread and quickly tell my eager customers that some pretty clouds would be in the offing and not low lcl ground scraping tornadoes.

Something looks to have gone wrong with the modelling of Darcy or it gone awry somewhere over in the low countries

We shall see if trends improve in the next few hours but not holding my breathe, not writing off the whole spell but this first bite (frontal) is looking dodgy now

Agreed here the frontal part is dodge AROME and ARP did call it pretty well so will be sticking to them. 
 

Hopefully winds start to shift soon and we get some showers going. 

[winterfreak]

1 minute ago, Stu_London said:

all is not lost folks - gfs has something quite tasty for our region around the 19th February. 

I can’t wait (thinly veiled sarcasm) 

[bobbydog]

3 minutes ago, snowrye said:

It all kicked off in the mad thread, and some unsavoury words were used by mr murr

So he got banned... not before time... 

I had his number a long time ago. He was a fairly knowledgeable 'snow-ramper' who never admitted when he was wrong...

It grated on me how people would hang on his every word when he would say things like "expect upgrades" which rarely actually happened. There are far more knowledgeable and balanced members on this forum who give a much more realistic idea of what the weather is likely to do...

[Stu_London]

still not a lot making it past the north downs, despite impressive radar returns to the north east of that area. 

[Paul Sherman]

1 minute ago, Stu_London said:

all is not lost folks - gfs has something quite tasty for our region around the 19th February. 

That made me laugh out loud Stu

Think Arome was defo one of them, cant remember the other 

[Daniel*]

Bit too early to say it’s bust however it is disappointing so far, the NW extent is improving in North Sea so some hope there away from Kent dew points also falling closer to 0°C now.

[kold weather]

2 minutes ago, Paul Sherman said:

We shall see if trends improve in the next few hours but not holding my breathe, not writing off the whole spell but this first bite (frontal) is looking dodgy now

Looking through the 00z suite at the moment they are far quicker to break up this frontal and on the recent runs and move into a convective banding pattern as early as this afternoon.

Just to warn you, the 00z AROME (which didn't do to badly with the further east placement of the front sadly) doesn't have much in SE Essex until much later today. Its still keen on 15cms but alot comes overnight tomorrow now.

At least with convective bands you know it will be strong enough to drag the cold air down.

[Binsey72]

Just had a message from my brother in law said there is a little bit of snow now but only round the M2 area , I’d imagine bluebell hill 

sorry forgot he works for the council and is out gritting 

Edited February 7, 2021 by Binsey72

[BLS]

Morning so happy I slept !! I would suggest an hour or to more!!

I have a very small dusting on the floor just but it is still very much rain here, From about 6pm yesterday the met said it would be rain/sleet till 5am for my area so not all is lost yet it was never going to be bang on time. 
 

I suggest we all just calm down and get some shut eye it’s not a busy just yet guys and girls !!

[pages]

I wouldn't worry yet. Latest GFS shows low slight further north and west than yesterday models hence why uppers and dew points taking longer to cool down.

Last few radar runs show the whole back of the band in North sea turning to snow and intensifying.

Yes we have lost couple of hours early snow due to it being marginally to warm but it should be turning rapidly now and setting within next couple of hours for all. 

Positive is more areas to north and west should see snow than modelled last night 

 

Edited February 7, 2021 by pages

[Speedbird]

3 minutes ago, kold weather said:

Ha sorry I did mean match, its been a long night!

Interesting to see the AROME has totally shifted its expectations.

Now doesn't do much more with the front but develops some idecent convective banding pretty quickly through the morning and then plenty of overnight, pretty constant on a NE airflow, so those areas such as mid Kent, SE Essex would do very well in such a set-up.

Think there may have to be a bit of dialing back of expectations though to be fair.

All the above falls into place when viewing MetO's amber zone which suggests more of a NE feed (hence the amber zone not extending too far west)

[Maidstone marginal]

Dec 2003. That was a bust. 

[Paul Sherman]

1 minute ago, kold weather said:

Looking through the 00z suite at the moment they are far quicker to break up this frontal and on the recent runs and move into a convective banding pattern as early as this afternoon.

Just to warn you, the 00z AROME (which didn't do to badly with the further east placement of the front sadly) doesn't have much in SE Essex until much later today. Its still keen on 15cms but alot comes overnight tomorrow now.

At least with convective bands you know it will be strong enough to drag the cold air down.

Here's hoping eh

[Stu_London]

2 minutes ago, bobbydog said:

So he got banned... not before time... 

I had his number a long time ago. He was a fairly knowledgeable 'snow-ramper' who never admitted when he was wrong...

It grated on me how people would hang on his every word when he would say things like "expect upgrades" which rarely actually happened. There are far more knowledgeable and balanced members on this forum who give a much more realistic idea of what the weather is likely to do...

Snow rampers tend to be popular on this site, particularly if you can present your posts in a way that it makes you look like you know what you are talking about. 

[wchris_uk]

DP now just into - 0.4 still falling. 

[bobbydog]

Anyway... don't give up hope just yet...

I was looking at the fax charts for tomorrow and noticed this little fella...

 

It's for around midday tomorrow.

Here's the NOAA explanation-

TROugh of Warm Air ALoft. Typically used during winter weather, it is a "tongue" of relatively warm/moist air aloft that wraps around to the north and west of a mature cyclone. ... During a winter storm, the heaviest snowfall amounts frequently occur along and north of the TROWAL axis.

Game on still?... 

[Southender]

4 minutes ago, Paul Sherman said:

Here's hoping eh

Morning Paul...

Dare I ask where the snow is at?

[classylady]

Good morning all you mad people! Just woken up, quick look out the window and it’s still raining, Should I go back to bed for a couple of hours or stay up? Hmmm...

[kold weather]

1 minute ago, Speedbird said:

All the above falls into place when viewing MetO's amber zone which suggests more of a NE feed (hence the amber zone not extending too far west)

Yeah there is a certain element of sense to that.

The winds will turn more ENE towards Monday evening, though as per everything the placements of the lows will dictate exactly when that will happen.

AROME still giving over 25cms to the area just east of Maidstone fwiw which obviously if a NE streamer does form is quite a possible outcome.

Still I'm saddened that there are going to be a lot of very dissapointed people out there first thing tomorrow is things don't shift soon. I expected nothing, but its even worse to expect lots and then struggle.

I was there myself a few years ago in Jan 19.

[Thunderstruck]

Met Office app (who knows how reliable that’s meant to be at this point) is still showing 46 hours of snow from 8am today until 6am Tuesday.

Not so sure now. At least not for the early stages of that timeframe

[dubmuffin]

Disappointed to wake up at 5am to plus temps and pouring rain

 

[Paul Sherman]

Just now, Southender said:

Morning Paul...

Dare I ask where the snow is at?

The thing that gives me hope is.........

Look on XCWeather at the Buoy Data in the North Sea and all are around -2c to -4c

Also Norwich and Wattisham are now at zero