South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards

[kold weather]

3 minutes ago, Mr Brown said:

I’m in South London, so I have more optimism for bands etc. You on the other hand, who is further in land, shouldn’t really have much. 

Oh I'm expecting nothing at all now.

Unless a Thames streamer kicks in hard I'm out of the game totally a d so is most places to the west of central London barring the odd shower here or there. Those could give a light dusting but that's it for a large part of this region.

Edited February 7, 2021 by kold weather

[Maidstone marginal]

Just now, Shere Khan said:

My thoughts exactly, it never snows here.

I know that very well. But to be fair It snows even less in broadstairs so I'm hoping for some snow reports from there as well. That will clinch it

[Kentspur]

4 minutes ago, essexweather said:

Not overly impressed with the 00Z UKV, seems to keep pushing the heavier snow back further and further - fine for Kent though!

Monday now the day for the most widespread snow?

Have u got a chart please When I hear people say its fine for Kent I automatically think of the Downs/Medway eastwards as I said before its harder to.get snow to Dartford/Gravesend as A NEly means the snow dies out over Essex before reaching these parts of Kent but most other places in "Kent" are fine

Edited February 7, 2021 by Kentspur

[essexweather]

Just come through, emphasis on eastern parts of the region. 72 hours of snow still forecast, so fingers crossed for everyone 

 

[OzzyUK]

3 minutes ago, kold weather said:

This is about as west as it gets, there is a little room for pivoting a touch more but that's almost it in terms of westerly motion.

After it breaks down there will be showers forming which may stand a better chance but I would y bank on it.

Apologies, but don't understand your statement - surely the main snow hasn't reached the Anglia/Kent coasts yet so if it doesn't get any further west then it will miss the UK entirely?

Or are you looking at modelling for the next 12/24 hours and mean that there is little chance of divergence further west from what they are currently showing?

[wellington boot]

10 minutes ago, Stu_London said:

PPN a bit lighter here now - which has seen it take a little step back - not many flakes now. 

Check now! I'm very close to you and ten mins ago looked out of one door and saw just light spotty drizzle. Ten mins later, I just looked out of another door and it looks like light snow.

I think it is technically still going to be sleet as it is fine and wet and nothing close to lying yet, but in the porch light you can see it move around and flutter very distinctively like light snow.

[chionomaniac]

Now precip is drizzle. It took a bit of checking, but definitely rain drizzle rather than snizzle. Bloody cold out there too.

[john mac1]

So are you saying the Thames streamers are   Unlikely now as well? 

[snowrye]

The weather is in a, can't make my mind up situation, I have the outdoor lights on, and im watching tv with the curtains open, 1 minute there's loads of flakes, the next hardly any, im trying to fight off the urge to sleep, but I think a couple of hours minimum is imminent.

[Stu_London]

4 minutes ago, wellington boot said:

Check now! I'm very close to you and ten mins ago looked out of one door and saw just light spotty drizzle. Ten mins later, I just looked out of another door and it looks like light snow.

I think it is technically still going to be sleet as it is fine and wet and nothing close to lying yet, but in the porch light you can see it move around and flutter very distinctively like light snow.

Just popped out and its still a bit drizzly. Looks like something a bit heavier is in the offing in about half and hour - maybe that will give it the oomph that it needs. Still doesn't feel quite cold enough. 

[Maidstone marginal]

4 minutes ago, Kentspur said:

Have u got a chart please When I hear people say its fine for Kent I automatically think of the Downs/Medway eastwards as I said before its harder to.get snow to Dartford/Gravesend as A NEly means the snow dies out over Essex before reaching these parts of Kent but most other places in "Kent" are fine

It's a frontal event at the moment, so I'm not sure the dynamics are the same as convective snow shower or daggler events 

[essexweather]

5 minutes ago, Kentspur said:

Have u got a chart please When I hear people say its fine for Kent I automatically think of the Downs/Medway eastwards as I said before its harder to.get snow to Dartford/Gravesend as A NEly means the snow dies out over Essex before reaching these parts of Kent but most other places in "Kent" are fine

Pretty much the same areas as the Amber warning. For my location a ENE is much better than a NE. Initially the streamers will set-up on NE, then turn more ENE by Tuesday but 'snow easing' by then according to Exeter.

I think most of Kent will do well, but obviously the Downs could hit the jackpot this time around.

[Kentieo Weather]

Temp +2.3

Dp + 1.6

Weather sleet.

[kold weather]

10 minutes ago, OzzyUK said:

Apologies, but don't understand your statement - surely the main snow hasn't reached the Anglia/Kent coasts yet so if it doesn't get any further west then it will miss the UK entirely?

Or are you looking at modelling for the next 12/24 hours and mean that there is little chance of divergence further west from what they are currently showing?

The band that is part of Darcy is near it's western extent, what is in Kent/Suffolk IS the modelled band of snow. You can tell it's near it's western limit by watching the southern half starting to curve SSE a d then eventually back east. This means the band is likely to pivot to look more N-S and then will basically sit in place and slowly weaken until it is replaced by weak convection (it wont look much different, just a little more patchy in coverage).

If you have snow/rain now you should be fine. If your still west of it,then your going to need the convection to help band that's total pot luck, especially further west you go.

As Essex weather said, streamers are possible, especially further east into N.Kent.

Thames streamer also possible but I think it's going to be a weak event focused mainly in S.essex, N.Kent and maybe S.London rather then a stronger event.

 

Edited February 7, 2021 by kold weather

[Kentspur]

Trying to work out if this is sleet or rain or snizzle I'm guna go rain?

[2810lollypop]

It's snowing in Hastings

[Mr Brown]

14 minutes ago, kold weather said:

Oh I'm expecting nothing at all now.

Unless a Thames streamer kicks in hard I'm out of the game totally a d so is most places to the west of central London barring the odd shower here or there. Those could give a light dusting but that's it for a large part of this region.

Sorry, that came off a bit harsh. I meant I can understand your frustration. 
 

haha I literally type what I think which is my problem...

[OzzyUK]

5 minutes ago, kold weather said:

The band that is part of Darcy is near it's western extent, what is in Kent/Suffolk IS the modelled band of snow. You can tell it's near it's western limit by watching the southern half starting to curve SSE a d then eventually back east. This means the band is likely to pivot to look more N-S and then will basically sit in place and slowly weaken until it is replaced by weak convection (it wont look much different, just a little more patchy in coverage).

If you have snow/rain now you should be fine. If your still west of it,then your going to need the convection to help band that's total pot luck, especially further west you go.

Thanks for taking the time to explain, its appreciated and have a better understanding of what you were saying.

Edited February 7, 2021 by OzzyUK

[kold weather]

Just now, Mr Brown said:

Sorry, that came off a bit harsh. I meant I can understand your frustration. 
 

haha I literally type what I think which is my problem...

No problems.

I got 4 inches 2 weeks ago so it's not like I've had nothing this winter, so it's all good!

I've accepted my fate but there is going to be alot of hopeful people waking up to nothing tomorrow morning outside of Kent, Se Essrx and Suffolk.

[LightningLover]

Something that looks far more like snow is falling here now!! 

[chionomaniac]

It certainly looks at the moment that those in east anglia are not getting anything like forecast. Wait for any streamers.

but I would say so far a far weaker event than expected

[Mizzle]

33 minutes ago, kold weather said:

Dry as a bone here, outlook dry as a bone.

Sorry just thought I'd join in with reporting current conditions (I might just copy and paste that line this week! )

You're still with us then? I took a break and have just been out with the dogs. Temp finally dropping - even a grosty morning will make me feel better - but still very calm and quiet. 

Aaaand. My orange sky is even orangier! (And we don't suffer with light pollution here - I am hanging on by a thread )

 

(I am leaving the typo 'grosty' as I suspect that's what we'll get!)

Edited February 7, 2021 by Mizzle
Left the typo!

[john mac1]

The storm that never was

[Stu_London]

Not convinced there is a whole load more to come courtesy of Darcy

Pivot looks like it will affect Kent only

[snowrye]

2 minutes ago, chionomaniac said:

It certainly looks at the moment that those in east anglia are not getting anything like forecast. Wait for any streamers.

but I would say so far a far weaker event than expected

Was just pondering the same