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South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards


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Posted
  • Location: Woking
  • Weather Preferences: Anything unusual works for me...!
  • Location: Woking
8 minutes ago, Angus Mcoatup said:

Are these real?

>2 weeks away... Seriously - what is the chance this verifies? 10% maybe..?

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Posted
  • Location: Brockham, near Dorking, Surrey. 75m ASL.
  • Location: Brockham, near Dorking, Surrey. 75m ASL.

Two screenshots from the Met Office infrared satellite from this evening.  If anyone can tell me that Darcy's leading edge (over Germany) isn't moving E/NE and the trailing edge arced back over France also isn't moving E/SE then they can see something in the movement that I can't.  Anyway, bedtime now.  I look forward to being wrong...

 

1794468263_Screenshot2021-02-06at23_29_57.thumb.png.4e8077d644478297f934e13d38c22eb8.png

Screenshot 2021-02-06 at 23.30.14.png

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Posted
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
  • Weather Preferences: 30 Degrees of pure British Celsius
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
8 minutes ago, alexisj9 said:

That link in the band looks like what I was afraid low center needs to stay south 

I think the main low (2 centres) one near NE France and one nearer the German /Dutch border I think are further south than that precip band to the north (at a guess) if anybody wants to correct me? That 'kink' in the precip band I think is a milder sector which phases out.

Edited by Froze were the Days
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Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
Just now, Ian Docwra said:

Two screenshots from the Met Office infrared satellite from this evening.  If anyone can tell me that Darcy's leading edge (over Germany) isn't moving E/NE and the trailing edge arced back over France also isn't moving E/SE then they can see something in the movement that I can't.  Anyway, bedtime now.  I look forward to being wrong...

 

1794468263_Screenshot2021-02-06at23_29_57.thumb.png.4e8077d644478297f934e13d38c22eb8.png

Screenshot 2021-02-06 at 23.30.14.png

It's meant to be moving NE.

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Posted
  • Location: Benfleet, Essex
  • Location: Benfleet, Essex
Just now, Ian Docwra said:

Two screenshots from the Met Office infrared satellite from this evening.  If anyone can tell me that Darcy's leading edge (over Germany) isn't moving E/NE and the trailing edge arced back over France also isn't moving E/SE then they can see something in the movement that I can't.  Anyway, bedtime now.  I look forward to being wrong...

 

1794468263_Screenshot2021-02-06at23_29_57.thumb.png.4e8077d644478297f934e13d38c22eb8.png

Screenshot 2021-02-06 at 23.30.14.png

This has been discussed... it splits out a branch west. 

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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
3 minutes ago, Nick F said:

I think Thames Snow Streamers aren't necessarily reliant on instability, more heavy snow is triggered by local surface convergence and uplift as the flow over the sea is funneled up the narrowing Estuary and the discontinuity between land and flat water causes lift, this further accentuated by rising land to the south of the Estuary as you head towards the North Downs - creating further lift.

Thats a fair point, which is why the models really struggle with its formation since they just don't have the resolution to pick out the local features of the Estuary, especially further into the  Estuary where it starts to narrow near Canvey westwards.

This is perhaps just a gut feeling I suppose based on previous events that it doesn't feel like a 'big' event that extends well westwards and more a modest type, maybe like the Feb 05 events which did give a good fall in the highlighted spots but quickly eased up once you get into CS London.

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Posted
  • Location: The North Kent countryside
  • Weather Preferences: Hot summers, snowy winters and thunderstorms!
  • Location: The North Kent countryside

Still chucking it down with rain, no sign of snow yet.

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Posted
  • Location: Bexleyheath (south), Kent
  • Location: Bexleyheath (south), Kent

Regretfully, if those that you have ignored are quoted by other users,v you can still see their posts. Never mind.

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Posted
  • Location: Norwich, Norfolk.
  • Location: Norwich, Norfolk.
1 hour ago, snowspotter said:

Seems to be a lot of hysteria on here considering the cold spell hasn’t even started here yet. Blimey just relax . Snows on the way 

I’d steer clear of the model thread too, it’s gone into meltdown.!!!

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Posted
  • Location: Norwich, Norfolk.
  • Location: Norwich, Norfolk.
1 hour ago, Paul Sherman said:

I am not even commenting in here atm, just laughing at the comments in the background

Your wasting your breathe Daniel. Leave em to it

 

Paul, have you dared to visit the model thread...? It’s gone into meltdown mode

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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
1 minute ago, Ian Docwra said:

Two screenshots from the Met Office infrared satellite from this evening.  If anyone can tell me that Darcy's leading edge (over Germany) isn't moving E/NE and the trailing edge arced back over France also isn't moving E/SE then they can see something in the movement that I can't.  Anyway, bedtime now.  I look forward to being wrong...

 

1794468263_Screenshot2021-02-06at23_29_57.thumb.png.4e8077d644478297f934e13d38c22eb8.png

Screenshot 2021-02-06 at 23.30.14.png

Ignore the curl for now further east. Can you see the slight curl forming to the south of the SE between the two images (its suble for now)

That is moving slowly ESE and get absorbed by a new low that forms over NE France eventually. The precip/cloud will wrap around the northern flank and move westwards around its northern side.

Its a fairly complex pattern to be fair.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Canvey Island
  • Weather Preferences: Deep untouched powdery snow and red hot beaches sipping cocktails
  • Location: Canvey Island

Temp 3.9

Dp 3.3

 

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Posted
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley
1 minute ago, spayne said:

Paul, have you dared to visit the model thread...? It’s gone into meltdown mode

No way Hose not that brave when breakdowns are being looked at

Btw Nice Radar on Sat24 from the NL Radar on there, shows the westwards movement and shearing off the coast of Denmark, run the annimation, looks further north than modelled but all on track for a 4am hit

image?type=infraPolair&region=nl
EN.SAT24.COM

Infrared satellite images of Netherlands, Belgium, Luxembourg, Clouds in Netherlands, Belgium, Luxembourg at night and in the evening. Weather Netherlands, Belgium, Luxembourg, Satellite Weather...

 

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Posted
  • Location: West/Central London (W11) 27m (88ft) ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and thunderstorms!! (With the odd gale thrown in)
  • Location: West/Central London (W11) 27m (88ft) ASL
7 minutes ago, kold weather said:

Thats a fair point, which is why the models really struggle with its formation since they just don't have the resolution to pick out the local features of the Estuary, especially further into the  Estuary where it starts to narrow near Canvey westwards.

This is perhaps just a gut feeling I suppose based on previous events that it doesn't feel like a 'big' event that extends well westwards and more a modest type, maybe like the Feb 05 events which did give a good fall in the highlighted spots but quickly eased up once you get into CS London.

I know what you mean, but there is a currently a big clump of precipitation over the Netherlands which has some heft to it. I still reckon that we won't be let down, it's just a matter of keeping an eye on the low's movement, but the radar is the one to watch.

 

WOW NL PPN Screenshot.png

Edited by Sno' problem
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Posted
  • Location: Hildenborough, Kent -24m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, heat aka summer + snow
  • Location: Hildenborough, Kent -24m asl
4 minutes ago, Mr Brown said:

Sleety rain here in South London. 

Can also confirm a wintry mix here too

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Posted
  • Location: colchester,essex,40m asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Very Hot,Very cold.scared of thunder and lightning.
  • Location: colchester,essex,40m asl.
37 minutes ago, SnowBear said:

Currently 3°c here in Colchester, light breeze, no rain or snow. 

Yes it slowly dropping now in colchester.

I am Stanway.

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Posted
  • Location: St rads Dover
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, T Storms.
  • Location: St rads Dover
33 minutes ago, Maidstone marginal said:

Cant confirm because I'm 30 miles away but it the triangle between Canterbury, Ashford and Dover. That's going to be the sweet spot ( only my opinion though)

Yep lot's of high ground there, part of the downs.

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Posted
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley

And before people say its later than planned check the Amber warning box, it starts at 0400 on Sunday 7th Feb

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Posted
  • Location: Hatfield Peverel near Chelmsford Essex
  • Location: Hatfield Peverel near Chelmsford Essex

Some moisture starting to move in of the north see, I can practically smell it❄

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Posted
  • Location: Chiltern Hills, Bucks. 518ft (158m)
  • Location: Chiltern Hills, Bucks. 518ft (158m)
1 hour ago, bRi87 said:

I'm in Prestwood. Big flakes here but too wet to settle. I really hope we have a snowy day tomorrow 

Over in Cheese'n'Ham here so sounds as if what we had did move West to fall over you  Fingers and toes crossed for overnight to deliver

Edited by Chillyhills
Wrong direction amended
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