South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards

[FetchCB]

4 minutes ago, North Easterly Breeze said:

Have a quick look at this while we wait.. Feb 22nd.

Brutal, record breaking

Brutal true although not quite record breaking 

[Dazza9525]

6 minutes ago, North Easterly Breeze said:

Have a quick look at this while we wait.. Feb 22nd.

Brutal, record breaking

Wow!!!! Is that seriously possible??? 

[Speedbird]

Just now, Biggin said:

New Ice age has begun. Still rain her.

there's more chance of tomorrows snow heading SW and missing us

[80sWeather]

2 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

Lol you think tomorrow and this week we be special the best is yet to come

INCREDIBLE 

Christ that’s plenty of work for plumbers and boiler engineers  right there.

[Ian Docwra]

3 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

Lol you think tomorrow and this week we be special the best is yet to come

INCREDIBLE 

Yes, literally.

[bluearmy]

3 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:

Sadly it's the GFS 18z...ECM and to a degree GEM not showing that at that range...

It’s two weeks away! 

[GSP]

Blooming Global Warming!

[Frosty the Snowman]

1 minute ago, Angus Mcoatup said:

Are these real?

 

Yup, tonight's OP run, unsuprisingly a colder trending one out of the ensembles. Unlikely to verify, but bloody good weather porn. 

[Paul Sherman]

4 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

Lol you think tomorrow and this week we be special the best is yet to come

INCREDIBLE 

Some would still say its Marginal 

[Neilsouth]

Roger J Smith

Quote

The cold is coming on fast now and has considerable depth with a rapid fall expected overnight in 850 mb temps. Looks to me like an extreme winter event for southeast England tomorrow. 20-40 cm snow potential, blowing snow in exposed areas. Similar if localized results later through the Midlands and Yorkshire. The North Sea is not particularly warm (widely reporting 6-7 C SST) so the modification of the cold surface flow will not be overly significant in terms of spoiling the snow potential through mixing; that milder sector between two advancing prongs of cold may see some mixing issues at first until it fills in. 

 

[alexisj9]

27 minutes ago, yamkin said:

 Dutch Radar showing loads of ppn heading our way. All going according to plan 

That link in the band looks like what I was afraid low center needs to stay south 

[Frosty the Snowman]

1 minute ago, Howie said:

What would the 2m temperatures look like for the end of the GFS run

[Nick F]

1 minute ago, kold weather said:

Yeah I think there is a fair chance it does form at some point, though the models don't seem to be suggesting a huge amount of instability is present beyond tomorrow, so may end up not being too potent outside of perhaps the usual favoured spots such as N.Kent and S.essex and die off quickly inland.

Still its probably the biggest wildcard we have .

Also, further west there is still a fair chance that some convective bands will work further west during tomorrow afternoon/evening, which could well give a small covering of maybe 1-2cms as well which will freeze overnight and probably stay in place from that point.

I think Thames Snow Streamers aren't necessarily reliant on instability, more heavy snow is triggered by local surface convergence and uplift as the flow over the sea is funneled up the narrowing Estuary and the discontinuity between land and flat water causes lift, this further accentuated by rising land to the south of the Estuary as you head towards the North Downs - creating further lift.

[Biggin]

2 minutes ago, Speedbird said:

there's more chance of tomorrows snow heading SW and missing us

How is our luck eh ??

[Stu_London]

1 minute ago, Howie said:

What would the 2m temperatures look like for the end of the GFS run

Below zero throughout the day - not quite as cold as earlier in the season as there would be a degree or so extra of solar heating - still damn cold

[Froze were the Days]

1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

It’s two weeks away! 

Well yes that as well...:) I didn't look at the date, thought it might be the week after next...14th onwards

[Big Dave]

7 minutes ago, Maidstone marginal said:

I was thinking the downs in the triangle rather than any of the towns. Ashford will do better than Maidstone I'm confident 

I don’t think any of us will complain! 
 

Trashford would never win! 

[Hammer]

Just now, alexisj9 said:

That link in the band looks like what I was afraid low center needs to stay south 

Could you explain?

[kold weather]

4 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:

If it's an outrageous run it will come from GFS and 9 times out of 10 (or more) won't verify.

To be fair GEM has also played with the idea, so its not quite true to say its just the GFS, for example take a look at the 00z GEM. Also we do need to remember, it was GFS that first suggested an easterly, and that turned out to be a good call.

[Froze were the Days]

2 minutes ago, Neilsouth said:

Roger J Smith

 

You missed out the major part of that quote which is beneath and that was - 'BOOM!'

[weathergeek]

22 minutes ago, Julesthecat said:

Near Reigate.  Still showing heavy snow.  Meto app does chop and change a lot though - usually only of use for the next hour!  I'm switching to look  out the window now - quit while I'm ahead

Ahh i get what the RH is now! Thanks, that's interesting you're getting so much more than me (well via symbols on the app!), maybe elevation?!xx

[SnowBlake]

8 minutes ago, Angus Mcoatup said:

My local BBC app shows light snow from now until 6pm on Monday.

I’ll believe it when I see it

You've seen it, apparently!

[Lampostwatcher]

D'Arcy is looking mighty fine tonight

[Dunstable Snow]

13 minutes ago, Snowflake Queen said:

It sure is I do miss the downs 

remember orange rolling ? 

I do indeed. Wouldn’t pass a health and safety risk assessment these days !

[Howie]

Just now, Lampostwatcher said:

D'Arcy is looking mighty fine tonight

Looking really far north